The NFL draft is always one of the hottest discussions in sports. Analysts, scouts, film junkies, even fans pour over hours of film looking for the next big thing. And the debates start. Who will replace X player? How will the team address Y weakness? In an era where athletes the likes of which we've never seen come out of college, where a new collective bargaining agreement makes top draft picks even more valuable and team friendly, missing on a high selection can be disastrous yet not completely hamstring a franchise. But at the same time, with a cap that continues to grow and a free agent market that hemorrhages money, the draft is a talented team's greatest ally. Arguably the hottest topics of debate is drafting for need or drafting the best player available (on that team's board). Teams who draft for need can address a position of weakness yet might give up some in the way of talent compared to other players available, where on the flip side teams who draft for the best player available might get a very talented player but walk into the season with a gap in their overall team. The Panthers have built a successful franchise by drafting for talent, and Shaq Thompson is the best example thus far in the Dave Gettleman era.
During the 2013 and 2014 NFL Drafts, the Panthers were blessed for the best players on their board to happen to be players at positions of need. The Panthers needed defensive tackles in 2013, they got two starters in the first two rounds. In 2014 they needed a wide receiver, they got Kelvin Benjamin. However, after some successful draft classes and frugal shopping of free agency helped fortify a roster that already had some top level stars, the Panthers found themselves in the ugly position of picking at the back end of the draft in both 2015 and 2016. In both cases, they ended up selecting players at their two strongest and deepest defensive positions. We cannot yet evaluate how that'll work out in the case of Vernon Butler, but we can look at Shaq Thompson as an early case study for the best player available mindset.
2015 Draft
After hours of discussion and debate, there were many different ways the Panthers could go in the 2015 draft. There were a few offensive tackles that were projected as first round picks, possible wide receiver selections, safeties, or even running back. All of these positions had understandable question marks following a 7-8-1 season that showed how thin the Panthers were at certain positions. But as the draft progressed, player after player dropped off the board who could have solved or at least addressed one of those issues. But as the final pick before the Panthers went in and OT DJ Humphries left the board, the team probably would have needed to reach for an answer. So the clock hit, and the polarizing Shaq Thompson got a call from Dave Gettleman. Welcome to the Panthers.
Shaq Thompson was a talented player, but the question marks associated with him came from an uncertainty of where he could win in the NFL. The former Washington Husky played safety, linebacker, and running back in college. He could have been selected to play safety or running back, both of which were needs. But the team made it clear that he would play linebacker, and the questions began. The team currently had Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, two guys who were chipping away at the idea that they could be the best 4-3 duo in the NFL. Behind them was A.J. Klein, a former fifth round pick who had played pretty well in the past and was entering his third season. For the first time in the Gettleman era, his first pick didn't match up with a need.
2015 Season
Shaq Thompson's development was slowed by the college rules, where he had to return to Washington to get his degree. He missed most of the 2015 OTAs, which can be a crucial development time for rookies making the jump to the NFL, especially in situations like Thompson's with position fluidity. Thompson returned for training camp, however he lost many reps with the first string defense in favor of A.J. Klein.
That didn't stop him from being called on once the regular season started. After swapping reps with Klein, Luke Kuechly went down with a concussion that forced Klein to take over the middle. This lead to Thompson starting in three linebacker sets and rotating with Thomas Davis and Klein in two backer sets. After that, Thompson found himself playing in virtually every game and starting 10 total games. He suffered a knee injury that kept him out for two of the regular season games, but after that he played or started a healthy amount of time and started every game in the postseason. Thompson's first season showcased his brutal hits and form tackles against the run and his ability to be a great special teams contributor.
Now
As we've seen in training camp, Thompson is playing with greater confidence and his pass coverage skills have greatly improved. Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis have been the toast of the Panthers defense for the last several seasons, and now Thompson is making a case to be included in that conversation. He's been making some incredible interceptions and pass deflections, something we didn't see much of during his rookie year. A year and some change removed from his draft night, the Panthers are in good position to continue to boast a strong linebacking group. The defense feeds off of Davis and Kuechly. Kuechly signed a long term extension last September, and the Panthers tacked on two more years to Davis' contract. However, with Davis heading towards the twilight of his career, Thompson appears to be the heir to the outside linebacker spot once Davis rides off into the sunset.
These kinds of situations can't always be predicted, and it is one of the best examples of BPA working out for the best and should give some credence to the selection of Vernon Butler. Not all strategies work the same way, but in the convoluted world of the NFL draft, sticking to what you know works is certainly a safe bet. And for Dave Gettleman, that's drafting high character guys with who can truly make an impact right out of the gate.