With the trade of Christian McCaffrey, Panthers GM Scott Fitterer has firmly established his control over Carolina’s roster. Now the pressure’s on Fitterer to prove he can deliver.
Making the bold move to trade the Panthers superstar running back to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for 2023 second-, third-, and fourth-round picks, along with a fifth-round pick in 2024, gives Fitterer assets. The recent firing of coach Matt Rhule gives him autonomy. Carolina’s GM now controls this team’s destiny.
Coach Matt Rhule as “Co-GM”
As an outsider looking in, it has appeared to me that while Fitterer was the Panthers GM, head coach Matt Rhule operated as something of a “Co-GM” whose fingerprints were visible on Carolina’s roster decisions.
Rhule was hired in 2020 on a seven-year contract, indicating owner David Tepper’s long-term commitment for the former college program savior to oversee the rebuild a stagnant Panthers franchise. Rhule’s role seemed to have a quasi-GM bend to it as evidenced by the number of Temple players that still dot Carolina’s roster. He also admitted in 2021 that the Panthers drafted Chuba Hubbard because he played well against Rhule in college and his wife texted him on draft day telling him to take Hubbard.
While successful NFL teams need the owner, general manager, and head coach to be aligned on strategy and priorities, things get messy when lines of responsibility start to blur, especially between the coach and the GM. Coaches have two very narrow priorities - win games, and don’t get fired. Coaches are largely focused on this year’s roster and next week’s opponent.
The GM’s focus is centered on both winning now while simultaneously making sure the team can compete in the future. This requires long-term thinking when it comes to roster construction, draft assets, and salary cap management. There should be a healthy, productive tension between the GM and the head coach in roster construction, but the GM needs to have the final say in personnel matters. While the GM-head coach dynamic should be one of alignment and collaboration, the GM needs to assemble the roster and the coach needs to coach it.
Scott Fitterer’s brief tenure as GM has seemingly been hamstrung by the outsized influence former coach Matt Rhule had on personnel decisions. Rhule’s gone. Fitterer has seized control of the roster. And now he needs to deliver.
The practical benefits of trading McCaffrey
Before playing armchair analyst about the practical benefits of trading Christian McCaffrey, I’ll just speak emotionally as a fan: This trade sucks.
CMC is one of the NFL’s most unique, effective, and exhilarating players. For the last couple of years I had an optimistic vision that McCaffrey would enjoy a 10-year career in Carolina, lead my beloved franchise to a Super Bowl, and one day be inducted into the Hall of Fame wearing a Panthers jersey. But in the end Carolina got just three brilliant, healthy seasons and two frustrating, injury-plagued campaigns from CMC before trading him away this year. What a shame.
From an analytical standpoint, trading McCaffrey now was a necessary step in the Panthers rebuild. It’s hard to envision a team giving up a first round pick for an injury-prone, high-salary running back, so the Panthers draft haul for CMC looks underwhelming but is probably fair.
The draft assets the Panthers received should yield, in theory, a solid starter (second round), a key contributor (third), a rotational player (fourth), and a special teams contributor (fifth). Based on data taken from Spotrac, the combined average annual cap hit for these four players over the next four years will be around $5.3 million total, or roughly 2.5% of the NFL’s $208 million salary cap. NFL rosters need to be filled out by young, cheap players on rookie contracts.
Unless lightning strikes, the Panthers won’t find a player of CMC’s caliber in the draft. They can’t replace him with a bunch of Day 2 and Day 3 picks. This move is intentionally swapping a dollar for two quarters, a dime, and a nickel, but in this analogy the “rebuilding vending machine” Carolina is purchasing from only accepts loose change, not dollar bills.
This trade will also free up a significant amount of salary cap starting in 2024 that can be used to shore up the rest of the roster. McCaffrey signed a four-year, $64 million contract in 2020. Per CBS Sports, the Panthers will eat $8 million in dead money this year and $18.4 million next year, but the trade will free up net cap space of $1.2 million next year, $20 million in 2024, and $15.4 million in 2025.
Lastly - and as much as I hate to say this - trading McCaffrey makes the Panthers less competitive this year, therefore losing more games and giving the team better draft picks in 2023. I absolutely hate tanking. I always want the football gods to punish teams tanking - except this time, of course - because I don’t like the universe rewarding incompetence. Owner David Tepper needs to take a hard look in the mirror knowing that he bought a team in 2018 that made the playoffs in four of the last six years before his arrival, and now with him as owner has gone just 16-39 with more pain to come.
Scott Fitterer’s moment
GM Scott Fitterer now has a golden opportunity to set himself and the Panthers up for long-term success. He and Tepper will hire the new head coach, so there won’t the power imbalance there seemed to be with Matt Rhule. Fitterer should now have more control over the roster, leading the draft, and managing the salary cap.
But how effectively Fitterer can do this remains to be seen. In just his second season as GM he has already overseen the disastrous trades for quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Fitterer has made several other bad trades that I’ve written about in more detail here, but they include signing then immediately trading away Denzel Perryman last year (Perryman racked up 154 tackles last season with the Raiders) and trading for CJ Henderson and a fifth round pick for Dan Arnold and a third rounder. Fitterer hasn’t yet proven to have a keen eye for talent when it comes to trades.
Fitterer’s draft record is spotty thus far as well. His 2021 draft class produced a potential superstar in corner back Jaycee Horn (though the No. 8 pick overall pick should yield a Pro Bowl caliber player) and a solid starter in third round guard Brady Christensen. But second round pick wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. has been invisible, third round tight end Tommy Tremble has a very replaceable skill set that wasn’t worth the No. 83 pick, plus seven additional players who have yet to make an impact.
Fitterer’s 2022 draft class hasn’t shown much early promise outside of first round left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, but again, there’s essentially zero degrees of difficulty landing a player with Pro Bowl potential at No. 6 overall. Third round quarterback Matt Corral is injured while linebacker Brandon Smith, defensive end Amare Barno, guard Cade Mays, and cornerback Kalon Barnes have hardly seen the field.
The good news for Fitterer - and Panthers fans everywhere - is the foundation is in place for Carolina to be competitive sooner rather than later, assuming they can solve the quarterback riddle via free agency or the 2023 draft (and that’s a big assumption). Carolina’s defense is comprised of a lot of good, young talent. The Panthers offensive line has finally stabilized though there’s a huge hole at the skill positions outside of wide receiver DJ Moore.
If 2023 is still something of a bridge year with a new quarterback (hopefully) and a new coaching staff, Carolina has a path to relevance in 2024. Trading Christian McCaffrey will help GM Scott Fitterer to chart that course.
Now he needs to deliver.
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