It’s well known the home team gets a standard three point advantage simply for playing in front of their home crowd. So when you see a home team only favored by three then it really is a toss-up. I’m not sure why these teams are viewed as fairly equal at the moment when their records are so very different. The 3-1 Panthers are coming off an ugly loss after winning their first three games. The 1-3 Eagles have lost three in a row after winning their opener, albeit against tougher competition than the Panthers have played. Both teams have lost to the Cowboys though the Panthers kept the score closer.
Here’s the latest line from DraftKings Sports Book:
So the difference could be the Eagles have played a tougher schedule (losses to Cowboys, 49ers, Chiefs) than the Panthers so far. Conversely when I look at the match up in terms of offense versus defense I see one area where the Panthers could and should dominate:
- Panthers 19th ranked rushing offense against Eagles 31st ranked rushing defense
- Panthers 7th ranked passing offense against the Eagles 7th ranked passing defense
- Eagles 10th ranked rushing offense against the Panthers 10th ranked rushing defense
- Eagles 10th ranked passing offense against the Panthers 2nd ranked pass defense
The Panthers should be able to run the ball against this Eagles defense, shortening the game and giving the Panthers defense plenty of rest.
Here’s what the Panthers have going against them:
Carolina’s defense used to be feared, but it had just been torn apart by the Dallas Cowboys. Hurts and the Eagles’ offense can do the same, as they are not lacking in weapons on that side of the field. Hurts has a talented rookie downfield as target in DeVonta Smith who just caught 7 of 10 targets for 122 receiving yards in the Kansas City game. Tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are huge targets for Hurt against Carolina’s defense that got burned by Dalton Schultz in Week 4.
The Panthers did break their streak of covering the spread in last week’s loss to the Cowboys. That just means they are primed to get back on track this week. Even without McCaffrey the Panthers will have enough offense to put up 28 points on the Eagles. The Panthers defense in turn keeps the pressure on Jalen Hurts to the point of making mistakes with the ball.
Here’s another factor the Panthers have in their favor:
The Eagles already have 44 penalties this season, the most in franchise history over the first four games of a season. If the Eagles are going to play that way again in Week 5, Sam Darnold should be able to capitalize. Darnold, who’s one of the surprises this season, passed for over 300 yards and two touchdowns with a pair of interceptions on 26/39 completions against the Cowboys. He also rushed for two touchdowns. Even without running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring), Darnold is still finding ways to move the chains, as the Panthers average 24.2 points and 287.5 total yards per game this season.
So I’m predicting a Panthers rebound at home this week against a struggling Eagles team
Game prediction: Panthers 27 Eagles 20
What is your prediction Panthers fans?
Will the Panthers beat the Eagles by more than 3 points?
This poll is closed
Yes, no problem
No, but the Panthers still win
No, they lose the game
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.