After releasing their 2020 Football Outsiders Almanac (click the link to purchase), Scott Spratt of Football Outsiders was kind enough to answer five questions about the Panthers’ statistical expectations this season.
You can read his answers to said questions below.
What kind of production should we expect from Robby Anderson when paired with Teddy Bridgewater? The two don’t seem to complement each other at all, with Anderson being a downfield threat and Bridgewater being more of a short-yardage passer. Will this be a problem for the Panthers’ offense in 2020?
We aren’t optimistic for Anderson’s total production for just that reason. Our KUBIAK projections tab him for 91.2 targets this season, 21.2 fewer than new teammate DJ Moore and 22.8 fewer than Anderson’s peak target season with the Jets.
That said, it’s difficult to have full confidence in that and any Panthers offensive projection after the team overhauled its coaching staff this offseason. New OC Joe Brady was an aggressive play-caller for the LSU Tigers last season, increasing quarterback Joe Burrow’s pass attempts by 5.9 per game from the previous year.
And it is entirely possible that Bridgewater’s low career 7.2-yard average depth of target is more a reflection of his previous coaches than of his abilities. His heir Kirk Cousins has averaged just 7.4 air yards per attempt for Mike Zimmer’s Vikings, and Drew Brees threw for just 7.2 air yards per attempt as the primary Saints starter the last two seasons.
Bridgewater was effective when he did throw deep last year, making an accurate pass on 56.5% of his deep attempts (16+ yards in the air). That was fifth best of the 34 quarterbacks who reached his same benchmark of total attempts.
The Panthers’ offensive line is bad, but should we see some marginal improvement from them in 2020 with a new scheme that should see more focus on short, quick routes from the backs and receivers instead of a deep-ball focused offense?
Yes, the Panthers’ offensive line should look significantly better because of the circumstances that surround it this season. Football Outsiders has long attested that quarterbacks are more responsible for their sacks than the public assumption. And last year, the Panthers had a much higher adjusted sack rate (8.6%, fourth highest) than offensive pressure rate (30.0%, 13th highest) with inexperienced passers Kyle Allen and Will Grier under center.
The Panthers gave Christian McCaffrey a $64 million contract extension this offseason, and historically teams have regretted paying running backs a lot of money on their second contract. Value is certainly subjective, but what kind of production does McCaffrey need to provide the Panthers to make him “worth the money”?
There really isn’t much McCaffrey could do to make his contract a good value to the Panthers in the sabermetric sense. In his incredible 2019 season, he added the most receiving yards over replacement (386 DYAR) and had the fourth-best receiving efficiency (34.8% DVOA) at the position. But those excellent totals and rates compare McCaffrey to other running backs in isolation.
If Football Outsiders ran those metrics for all skill players together, even that career season would land McCaffrey below an average “receiver”, noticeably worse than his less-heralded teammate D.J. Moore. If on-field value were the only concern and they had complete access to plus contributors at every position, the Panthers would be better served to allocate that money to other positions.
Still, I expect the Panthers would be delighted in their investment if McCaffrey stayed healthy over the length of his contract and continued to contribute as both a runner and as a receiver. The team can more than make up for McCaffrey’s on-field value shortfall with his marketability as the face of their franchise.
The Panthers went all-in on defense in the 2020 draft. Which rookie do you project to be the breakout star on defense for Carolina this season?
He may not rack up the traditional stats like sacks and interceptions one associates with defensive stars, but defensive tackle Derrick Brown should be a Day 1 starter and the exact player the Panthers need to fill their biggest defensive hole. Even with star linebacker Luke Kuechly playing his usual brand of Hall-of-Fame football, the 2019 Panthers defense were historically inefficient (18.6% DVOA, fifth worst since 1985) against the run. Brown can flip that script as a rookie.
Is it actually possible for the 2020 team to be worse than the 2019 team was on defense, especially against the run?
It would be pretty tough for the Panthers to be as bad against the run in 2020 as they were in 2019. As mentioned, their 18.6% run defense DVOA was the fifth worst in the history of the metric. And, subjectively, the team “added” a pair of defensive tackles in first-rounder Derrick Brown and two-time Pro Bowler Kawann Short—who missed all but two games in 2019 with a shoulder injury—that should directly address that specific weakness.
That said, it is possible the team could be worse in overall defense than they were last year. Young defenses tend to perform worse than similarly talented older defenses, and the Panthers could start as many as six defenders—Brown, Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Marquis Haynes, Jeremy Chinn, and Corn Elder—with fewer than six career starts. Even regressing for the relative unpredictability of defenses compared to offenses, we project the Panthers to have an 11.0% defensive DVOA, the worst in football and worse than last year’s team (8.2%, 22nd).
Many thanks to Scott for taking the time to answer my questions. If you’re interested in more from Football Outsiders, you can purchase the 2020 Football Outsiders Almanac— along with one of their premium subscriptions— by clicking here.