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Panthers spread versus Buccaneers narrows to five points

The early money has favored the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

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After giving the Chiefs everything they could handle last week the Panthers would appear primed to knock off the Buccaneers this week. That’s what the early money seems to think anyway. The spread opened at 6.5 points on Monday but narrowed quickly. I’ve seen as low as 4.5 points.

Homer’s take

The Panthers are better than many thought they would be in a rebuilding year. They have yet to get blown out by any team in spite of their 3-6 record. They are a young team learning how to win games in the fourth quarter. That means they keep things close, closer than five points anyway. The Bucs on the other hand just got blown out by the Saints last week and look in disarray. They certainly didn’t look like the preseason Super Bowl contenders many pegged them for. Here’s a few stats that support the Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers picks, predictions Week 10

John Breech writes: “The Buccaneers are 3-1 both straight-up and ATS in their past four games against the Panthers, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should jump all over them here. One reason to like the Panthers is because home underdogs in divisional games are a very impressive 11-2 ATS this season. Also, Teddy Bridgewater is 15-4 ATS In his career after a straight-up loss. This includes covering on Sunday against the Chiefs after a straight-up loss to the Falcons in Week 8. In his career, Bridgewater is 32-11 ATS (74.4% cover rate), which is the best mark of ay starting quarterback since 2000.”

Wow, Teddy 2 Gloves has a 74% cover rate, that is impressive! It doesn’t mean he won games of course, his teams simply performed better than predicted by the Vegas odds makers, who are very good at their jobs by the way. If the Panthers

Hater’s take

I spite of his analysis Beech still predicts a Bucs seven point victory. In fact I cannot find anyone predicting an actual Panthers upset after coming so close to pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the season. These predictions were before it was announced Christian McCaffrey will miss the game due to a shoulder injury.

Bill Bender writes: “Tom Brady bounced back to beat the Panthers after the first loss to the Saints in Week 1, and he will do it again here. Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey suffered yet another injury, and that’s going to make it that much more difficult to keep up. Antonio Brown scores his first TD of the season, too.”

In his one game back from injury, McCaffrey really showed how much he adds to the Panthers offense. Without him, it’s hard to see the Panthers improving on their 34-17 loss to the Bucs in Week 2. Add in the Panthers 1-3 home record and I have a tough time with the Panthers covering five points. Just like last week’s game seemed like a game the Panthers would play well in, this week seems prime for a home game let down.

I had to take the Bucs minus five and the under 50.5

Panthers 20 Buccaneers 30

I don’t like picking the Panthers to lose but it doesn’t really chafe me as much as it usually does. At 3-6 the Panthers are only a couple losses from playing for 2021. I’m already there, 2020 has been a schitz show. Might as well get a better draft pick. The Panthers are entertaining to watch even during this sub-par season thanks to an offense that can move the ball and a head coach willing to take some risks. To call a fake punt two weeks in a row take some kahunas. I’ve suffered through worse Panthers teams, that’s for sure.

Keep pounding!