The Carolina Panthers defense has made significant strides week over week so far this season. That progress culminated in a Week 4 win over the Arizona Caridnals where the Panthers defense completely shut down the Cardinals offense outside of a long Kyler Murray scramble. They limited the Cardinals to 3.7 yards per carry outside of that one scramble and just 4.3 yards per pass attempt. That Cardinals averaged just 5.5 yards per completed pass and completed just three passes over 10 yards.
Up next is an Atlanta Falcons offense that’s supposed to be really really good. But so far this season, they haven’t been. A cursory look at offensive rankings will show you the Falcons rank eighth in yards per game, but that number is misleading. The Falcons rank 20th in the league in yards per play. Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons as the 21st best offense in the league—19th in passing and 18th in rushing.
On top of that, the Falcons are banged up at the receiver position. Julio Jones sat out practice on Wednesday as he deals with a hamstring issue. Calvin Ridley is dealing with injuries of his own. He logged a limited practice on Wednesday, but he was shut out in the Falcons Monday night loss to the Packers, so it’s fair to wonder if he’s limited by his ailments.
All that said, the Falcons have had the Panthers number in recent seasons, so it’s hard to give the Panthers the edge. These are some things the Panthers can do to flip the script and score their first win in Atlanta since 2014.
- Win in high leverage situations. Part of the Falcons struggles this season are a result of their failure to succeed in important situations. They’ve converted just over 39% of their third downs, which is 22nd in the league. They’ve gone for 10 times on fourth downs, the most in the league, but they’ve converted just four times. They’ve scored touchdowns on 60% of their red zone trips, which is 17th in the league. The Panthers can greatly improve their chances of winning if they can take advantage of the Falcons struggles in these areas.
- Don’t get beat by the deep ball. Matt Ryan has been one of the league’s more aggressive quarterbacks this season when it comes to throwing the ball down the field. Julio Jones being out or limited would help with this, but it wouldn’t completely eliminate the threat. We saw Olamide Zaccheaus go for 93 yards last season, and he’s still around to run fast and have Matt Ryan chuck the ball far in his direction.
- Hope the Falcons still haven’t figured out how to use Todd Gurley as a receiver. The Falcons acquired one of the most versatile backs in the NFL over the offseason and have decided to employ him as a run-of-the-mill battering ram through four weeks. Gurley has been targeted just eight times, catching four passes for nine total yards. Gurley isn’t the same player he was for the Rams, but he’s being criminally underutilized by the Falcons, which bodes well for the Panthers defense.