As bad as the Carolina Panthers defense looked in those last few losses of the 2019 season, I’m here to tell Panthers fans it was not as bad as it seemed. The team’s defensive statistics show the Panthers defense as middle of the pack for the season outside of points allowed. The reason is the Panthers’ defense started strong statistically when the team won five of eight games, but then fell apart down the stretch when they lost eight games in a row.
Here’s the Panthers regular season team defense rankings.
The reason the Panthers ended up next to last in scoring defense but middle of the pack in the rest of the statistics?
In a word... turnovers.
For the first eight games of the season the Panthers were +6 in turnover differential. During the final eight games they were -20. That equates to -14 on the season, good for No. 30 in the league. It’s hard to win games when you turn over the ball that much, I don’t care who your coach is.
The biggest culprit was quarterback Kyle Allen, who was a turnover machine in his first season as a starter. He threw 16 interceptions and fumbled the ball 13 times, losing seven of those fumbles. That is 23 turnovers in 12 1/2 games…from one player.
So how important are turnovers to wins and losses? Judging by the turnover differential for the 2019 playoff teams, they’re hugely important — 10 of the top 11 teams in turnover differential made the playoffs this season.
Protecting the ball has always been Ron Rivera’s mantra and his team failed at that big time this season, so it should be no wonder what happened after a promising 5-3 start to the season. Allen was constantly putting his defense in a bad position with turnovers. While creating turnovers early in the season to counter Allen’s errors, the defense could not match Allen’s rate over the course of the season. I have no doubt if Rivera thought he had a better option at quarterback he would have used it given how he values ball protection.
After the first four games of the season I wrote the Panthers had one of the best defenses in the league fueled by the their pass rush, solid coverage and ability to create turnovers. Unfortunately the Panthers defense could not sustain the turnover rate and the offense couldn’t stem theirs. Maybe I jinxed them with the post? I say that because the same happened right after I declared Greg Olsen was a top five tight end again right after his two touchdown performance against the Arizona Cardinals. Olsen then proceeded to be ineffective for most of the season outside of a 98-yard game against the Green Bay Packers, but I digress.
I still think Kyle Allen has a future in the league if only as a capable short term back up. Hell, look at how long Blaine Gabbert has lasted in the league as a back up. But, he has to continue to work on his ball protection and stop sailing his throws. I see errors that could be corrected in due time.
So do you agree the defense was not as bad as it seemed?