The Carolina Panthers need to get younger at the safety position. Mike Adams and Eric Reid held down the position reasonably well, but Adams is about to turn 50 years old and both players are free agents. As of this writing Da’Norris Searcy, Rashaan Gaulden, Kai Nacua, and Quin Blanding are the only safeties under contract for 2019. That’s not a group that inspires confidence, for a number of reasons.
The Panthers could look to the NFL Draft to address their safety woes. Fortunately for the Panthers, good safety play can be found pretty reliably on day two of the draft, so they can focus their attention to other needs early.
The below chart shows how well safeties selected between 2008 and 2017 at or after the Panthers pick in each round fare relative to the average of all positions. AV/Year is Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value divided by the number of years since the player was drafted.
The safety position has a below average return on investment in the first two rounds, though they do tend to start a good bit. Nearly 64% of safeties drafted in the first round have started at least half their team’s games, compared to the 54% average. That drops precipitously in the second round, but it levels off between the second and third rounds. In fact, the odds of coming away with a quality safety are just as good in the third round as they are in the second round. Guys like Justin Simmons, John Johnson III, and Duron Harmon have been scooped up in the third round and gone on to have very strong NFL careers.
If the Panthers are planning on selecting a safety in the upcoming draft, their third round pick seems to be the sweet spot to take one. That gives them a chance to address other needs earlier on.