The Carolina Panthers defense is very very bad now. That continued against the Atlanta Falcons, where the Panthers gave up 6.9 yards per play and let an otherwise wayward Falcons offense score on 75% of their drives.
Now they host a team that’s playing for something real. They’re coming off a loss to the Rams that knocked them off the top of the NFC West and into a wildcard spot. They’ll need to win their next two games to set up a showdown for the NFC West crown against the 49ers in Week 17.
The Seahawks try to run an antiquated offense, but Russell Wilson drags them kicking and screaming into the 21st century every season. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer wants to establish the run (whatever that means) and put the ball in his MVP candidate quarterback’s hands as little as possible. But Russell Wilson always finds a way to make an impact regardless.
Wilson is a top MVP candidate this season. He’s thrown 26 touchdowns to just five interceptions and sports the fifth best passer rating in the league. He leads a Seahawks passing offense that ranks first in DVOA despite having Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf as his top two receivers.
Their running offense is nothing to sneeze at either. Their run offense is fifth according to DVOA. Their dynamic duo of Chris Carson and Rashad Penny has been separated by Penny’s sprained ACL (I didn’t know that was a thing), but Carson is more than capable of shouldering the load by himself. That brings us to our keys.
- Tackle Chris Carson. Or don’t. I don’t think anyone really cares anymore. The Seahawks somehoe get every running back they acquire to run like their hair is on fire, a la Marshawn Lynch. Carson has ground out 4.3 yards per carry en route to his second straight 1,000 yard season. At 222 pounds, he’s a load to bring down, and he has decent enough breakaway potential. He’s a candidate to go for 150 yards on Sunday.
If there’s one fly in the ointment, it’s fumbles. He’s put the ball on the turf seven times this season, and that might be the only way the Panthers stop him.
- Keep Russell Wilson in the pocket. Russell Wilson is a notorious escape artist who makes a lot of his best plays when the original play call breaks down. The Panthers only generated one sack against Matt Ryan on Sunday, and more importantly than that, the pass rush isn’t performing like a cohesive unit. That’ll leave all sorts of space for Wilson to escape and hit backbreaking throws that should never work but somehow always do.
- Don’t leave any defensive backs on an island. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are nightmare deep covers. Josh Gordon and Malik Turner are too, to a lesser extent. The Panthers got roasted by Olamide Zaccheus for a 93 yard touchdown last week, and he’s decidedly less good than those Seahawks receivers.
Tyler Lockett is the biggest problem. Despite his small frame, he’s incredible at high pointing deep passes and beating defenders to the ball. Wilson trusts him too. That’s a problem for all of the Panthers DBs.
The Panthers in their current state have little chance of limiting the Seahawks offense. But stranger things have happened.