With Cam Newton going on injured reserve and now missing the rest of this season, many of us as Carolina Panthers fans are wondering if the time has come for the team to move on and find a new franchise quarterback. The combination of Cam’s age, health, and contract status requires us to at least think about the possibility. After all, the team could trade him or cut him next season (the final year of his current deal) and free up $19.1 million in cap space.
Once Cam’s gone the Panthers could just ride Kyle Allen or use their first round pick in 2020 to land their next franchise quarterback. They could then build a solid roster around their younger, cheaper quarterback by using the oodles of cap space they just cleared up by jettisoning Cam. Sounds like a good plan, right?
Um, wrong.
The Kyle Allen solution
Let’s talk about simply replacing Newton with Kyle Allen next year. First off, I’m on record as an Allen supporter for the role he’s currently in. He’s a capable backup quarterback and is exceeding expectations for a young signal caller - which is great! - but we don’t have any idea how good or how bad he will turn out to be. In an excellent piece about building around young quarterbacks, The Ringer’s Robert Mays said NFL talent evaluators need about 45 starts from a quarterback before they know if he’s the long-term franchise solution. Kyle Allen has seven. Are you prepared to give Kyle Allen a trial run for the next two and a half seasons to really find out if he’s the guy? Look, I’m delighted with what Kyle is doing this year, but I’m not signing up for that.
So Allen’s a mystery and Will Grier looks like a project. If they’re not the answer it’s doubtful Carolina could sign a franchise quarterback in free agency or trade for one next year, and if they did their new QB’s cap hit would like mirror Cam’s current deal, so what’s the point?
The draft solution
If you think the best plan is for the Panthers to move on from Cam and just draft a first rounder to replace him then you’re grossly underestimating how difficult it is to find an elite quarterback via the draft.
In order to illustrate just how incredibly hard it is to draft a true franchise quarterback I evaluated all of the quarterbacks selected in the first round between 2004 and 2015, a time frame which gives each player at least four years of NFL experience before grading them. My grading system is admittedly subjective (as all systems are) and we can probably quibble about some of the individual ratings, but I’m confident it’s at least directionally correct.
Here are the five categories I used to rank each player.
Elite - Demonstrated the ability over multiple years to elevate an otherwise average offense into one that can win in the postseason and challenge for a Super Bowl. Generally accounts for 270-plus yards per start (combined passing and rushing) with multiple Pro Bowls.
Solid - Demonstrated the ability over multiple years to improve an otherwise average offense into one that can compete in the playoffs. Generally accounts for approximately 250 total yards per start with multiple Pro Bowls.
Average - Competent starter who can effectively manage a game but doesn’t truly elevate the offense. He doesn’t hurt the offense, either. May or may not make the Pro Bowl in the best year of his career. Averages about 240 total yards per start.
Subpar - Inconsistent player who started between 50-70 career games before losing his job. Averages around 225 yards per start.
Bust - Generally started 30 career games or less with unimpressive stats.
With that grading system as the basis, here’s how each of the 42 quarterbacks drafted in the first round between 2004 and 2015 stack up along with the pick they were selected with. (And here’s the nerdy spreadsheet with their stats.) And remember, this isn’t about the player’s win-loss record. This is assessing how much they elevate (or hurt) an otherwise average offense. For example, Alex Smith has a career 94-66-1 record as a starter but I’ve rated him as “average” because he only produces 230 combined yards per start. On the flip side I’ve graded Matthew Stafford as “elite” despite his 69-78-1 record with the dysfunctional Detroit Lions because his skills could elevate an otherwise average offense.
In all, about 10 of 42 quarterbacks (24 percent) selected in the first round are either “elite” or “solid”. Another 10 of them (24 percent) are “average” NFL quarterbacks. The remaining 22 players (52 percent) are considered “subpar” or even “busts.”
That’s correct: Over half of the quarterbacks taken in the first round go on to be “subpar” or “busts.”
But it gets even more complicated when trying to land an “elite” or “solid” quarterback via the draft when considering six of the 10 players were the No. 1 overall pick. Matt Ryan was the No. 3 overall pick while Philip Rivers was the No. 4 selection. Eight of the 10 franchise quarterbacks were taken in the Top 4 picks. Only Ben Roethlisberger (No. 11) and Aaron Rodgers (No. 24) were drafted after the fourth overall pick during that 12-year span.
At 5-3 the Carolina Panthers won’t be getting an early first round pick next year. And even if the Panthers do have an early first rounder there’s no guarantee they will land a true franchise quarterback. 10 of the 32 “average”, “subpar”, and “bust” quarterbacks (31 percent) were selected somewhere between No. 1 and No. 4 overall in the draft.
The Carolina Panthers already have an elite quarterback on their roster in Cam Newton. Let me rephrase that - they have an elite quarterback in a healthy Cam Newton. He was playing at a Pro Bowl level through the first eight games last year before injuring his shoulder. My ideal solution is for Cam to enter 2020 healthy, he returns to his “elite” status, and the Panthers then extend him through 2023 on a fair deal that acknowledges Cam’s greatness but also factors in his recent injuries and his age. I also think it’s time to move on from Ron Rivera and see how “healthy Cam” could be utilized over the next 3-4 years under a more modern and innovative coaching staff.
While there’s definitely risk in locking up Cam Newton through his age 34 season, the bigger risk would be trying to replace him. When Cam is at his best he is a devastating weapon who can go out and actually win games for his team. There are only a very, very small number of NFL quarterbacks with the franchise-altering upside of a healthy Cam Newton.
Giving Cam an extension and hoping he returns to his previous elite form is a risk, but trying to replace him via the draft or giving Kyle Allen another 30-40 starts to prove himself is even riskier. At some point in the near future Marty Hurney is going to need to make a monumental decision about the No. 1 quarterback position.
Let’s hope he makes the right call.