The NFL MVP has been reserved almost exclusively for quarterbacks for nearly two decades. Adrian Peterson won the award in 2012 after coming eight yards short of the single season rushing record. Every other MVP since 2007 has been a quarterback.
Christian McCaffrey is poised to break that trend. The Carolina Panthers have leaned heavily on their running back to generate offense. In an increasingly passing oriented NFL, that’s usually a fool’s errand, but McCaffrey has made it work.
Through six weeks, he leads the league with 618 rushing yards and he’s one off the league lead with seven rushing touchdowns. He’s also second among running backs in receptions and third in receiving yards with another pair of touchdowns through the air. He’s generated 923 yards of total offense so far, 127 yards more than second place Dalvin Cook. Extrapolated to a full 16 game season, that equates to 2,461 yards and 24 touchdowns. Only Chris Johnson has topped that yardage mark, and only four players have scored more touchdowns.
McCaffrey has accounted for 43.6% of the Panthers total yardage this season and scored 53.0% of the team’s offensive touchdowns. He’s touched the ball or been targeted on 45.0% of the Panthers offensive plays. No other player in the league plays such a major role for their team. McCaffrey is the Panthers offense.
As he’s gone, so too has the Panthers offense. When he was limited by the Buccaneers, the offense as a whole struggled. They averaged just 4.6 yards per play and converted only six of 29 3rd down attempts. In the games where the defense was unable to contain McCaffrey, the Panthers offense was demonstrably better.
There’s reason to believe that the best is still yet to come for McCaffrey. In the two games against the Buccaneers league best run defense, McCaffrey averaged just 55 total yards per game. In his four games against non-Buccaneers, he’s averaged 203 yards of total offense per game. Somehow, the Atlanta Falcons are the best run defense left on the Panthers’ schedule, and their overall defense is putrid. So the big numbers should keep piling up for the third year back.
No other player is as important to their team’s offense as Christian McCaffrey. He’s transcended the modern NFL and carried a winning team’s offense from the running back position. If he keeps this up and the team keeps winning, he should be NFL MVP.