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Durst's 2019 Senior Bowl Preview/Big Board

Durst's 2019 Senior Bowl Preview/Big Board
Players are divided into three tiers - Likely first rounders, potential day two (Rd 2-3), and likely day three (Rd 4-7).
POS
1-32 33-120
121-250
DEFENSE
DL

Gerald Willis, Miami
Renell Wren, Arizona State
Isaiah Buggs, Alabama
Jonathan Ledbetter, Georgia

Kingsley Keke, Texas A&M
Demarcus Christmas, FSU
Dontavius Russell, Auburn
Greg Gaines, Washington
Byron Cowart, Maryland
Khalen Saunders Western Illinois
John Cominsky Charleston
Edge
Josh Allen, Kentucky
Montez Sweat, Miss. St

Jaylon Ferguson, La Tech
Zach Allen, Boston College
Oshane Ximines, Old Dominion
Christian Miller, Alabama
Jalen Jelks, Michigan State
Anthony Nelson, Iowa
Chase Winovich, Michigan
Ben Banogu, TCU
Charles Omenihu, Texas
Chase Winovich, Michigan
Carl Granderson, Wyoming
L.J. Collier, TCU
LB


D'Andre Walker, Georgia (Edge)
Te'Von Coney, Notre Dame
Germaine Pratt, NC State
David Long Jr. West Virginia
Khalil Hodge, Buffalo
Otaro Alaka, Texas A&M
Cameron Smith, USC
Deshaun Davis Auburn
Bobby Okereke, Stanford
Ben Burr-Kirven, Washington
H

Drue Tranquill, Notre Dame
Chase Hansen, Utah
Terrill Hanks New Mexico State

CB

Amani Oruwariye, Penn State
Kris Boyd, Texas
Rock Ya-Sin, Temple
Lonnie Johnson, Kentucky
Isaiah Johnson, Houston
Mark Fields, Clemson
Corey Ballentine, Washburn
Jordan Brown South Dakota St.
S

Juan Thornhill, Virginia
Marvell Tell III USC
Johnathan Abram, Miss St
Nasir Adderley Delaware
Mike Edwards, Kentucky
Jaquan Johnson, Miami
Sheldrick Redwine, Miami
Darnell Savage Maryland
Will Harris, Boston College
Marquise Blair Utah
Khari Willis Michigan State
Darius West, Kentucky

OFFENSE
QB
Drew Lock, Missouri
Daniel Jones, Duke

Tyree Jackson, Buffalo
Will Grier, West Virginia
Ryan Finley, NC State
Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern
Gardner Minshew, Wash State
Trace McSorley, Penn St
RB

LJ Scott, Michigan State
Myles Gaskin, Washington
Dexter Williams, Notre Dame
Karon Higdon, Michigan
Ryquell Armstead, Temple
Jalin Moore, Appalachian St
Bruce Anderson, No. Dakota St
WR


Anthony Johnson, Buffalo
Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
Jakobi Meyers, NC State
Emmanuel Hall, Missouri
Terry McLaurin, Ohio State
Jalen Hurd, Baylor
Andy Isabella, Massachusetts
David Sills, West Virginia
Alex Wesley, Northern Colorado
Tyre Brady, Marshall
Jaylen Smith, Louisville
Hunter Renfrow, Clemson
Keelan Doss, UC Davis
Travis Fulgham, Old Dominion
Penny Hart, Georgia State
TE

Josh Oliver, San Jose St.

Dax Raymond, Utah State
Drew Sample, Washington
Thomas Sweeney, Boston College
Foster Moreau, LSU
Donald Parham, Stetson
OT


Yodny Cajuste, West Virginia
Andre Dillard, Washington St
Kaleb McGary, Washington
Dennis Daley, South Carolina
Max Scharping, Northern Ill.
Tytus Howard, Alabama State
Chuma Edoga, USC
Olisaemeka Uduh, Elon
G/C

Dalton Risner, Kansas State
Michael Dieter, Wisconsin
Elgton Jenkins, Mississippi St
Dru Samia, Oklahoma
Garrett Bradbury, NC State
Javon Patterson Ole Miss
Chris Lindstrom, Boston College
Ben Benzshawel, Wisconsin
Ross Pierschbacher, Alabama
Ben Powers, Oklahoma
Garrett Brumfield, LSU
Nate Davis Charlotte

NOTE: Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State), D’Andre Walker (EDGE, Georgia), Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky), Gerald Willis III (DT, Miami), Marvell Tell (S, USC), Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan), Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama), Yodny Cajuste (T, West Virginia), Myles Gaskin (RB, Washington), LJ Scott (RB, Michigan State), Clayton Thorson (QB, Northwestern) are no longer competing due to injuries.

2019 NFL Draft – Senior Bowl Analysis

Quarterbacks:

Overall, I am not very impressed with this year’s QB class, I am high on Dwayne Haskins and in the end, I expect at least two to be drafted in the top-10.

Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Physically, here’s a lot to like about Lock. He has good size (6-4, 225) with solid mechanics, and shows the ability to get good velocity on vertical/deep-out throws.

Over the summer, NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein wrote – "His plus size and arm talent combined with his inconsistent accuracy are eerily similar to what we saw from Josh Allen, who was selected with the seventh pick of the 2018 draft."

Despite throwing for an FBS-best and SEC-record 43 touchdowns in 2017, Lock didn’t receive first- or second-round draft grade from NFL advisory committee and decided to return for his senior season, despite a coaching change.

The results were not as anticipated. As a senior, Lock’s stats plummeted in passing yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns (just 25). However, he improved his completion percentage and adjusted QBR.

Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

A Charlotte native, Jones climbed onto NFL draft boards early last season, as just a red-shirt sophomore. In the Blue Devils’ second game of the 2017 season, Duke beat Northwestern, 41-17, with Jones running the run-pass option for 305 passing yards and two touchdowns and 108 rushing yards and two more TDs. That game put him on the map.

Just a two-star recruit, Jones ended up committed to Princeton until Duke coach David Cutcliffe, a quarterback guru, recruited him to the Blue Devils. A quick note about Duke head coach David Cutcliffe. Six quarterbacks whom Cutcliffe coached in college have gone on to play in the NFL, including both Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.

Others:

Buffalo's Tyree Jackson could be the biggest Senior Bowl riser. A late invite, after he originally announced he was going to transfer, instead he ended up declaring for the 2019 NFL Draft. At 6'7/247, he has been compared to Cam Newton, although a more realistic comparison might be Paxton Lynch. Draft decisions aren't made based on how a player is performing right now. They are made based on the long-term projection. Jackson has some tools.

Both Finley and Grier are slightly over-aged, and will be 24 yrs old at the time of the draft, after transferring from Boise State and Florida. As a point of comparison, Jared Goff will still be 24 as well, Sam Darnold will be 21, Rosen 22, and Mahomes will be 23 on the day Finley and Grier are drafted.

Jarrett Stidham proved to be a poor fit for the Gus Malzahn offense, but might be a better prospect than he appeared to be??

Clayton Thorson has the most QB starts in B10 history (edit. late scratch due to injury).

Running Backs:

After no running back were drafted in the first round from 2013-14, NFL teams selected eight running backs in Rd1 over the past four drafts, with the results being that most of them have became foundation pieces for their teams.

The flip side, is the NFL teams continue to unearth productive backs later in the draft, or even afterwards. Phillip Lindsay, Gus Edwards, Austin Ekeler, and Josh Adams were each UDFA running backs.

Running backs that are seen as assets in the passing game have more value than ones that don’t.

Wide Receivers:

The 2019 WR class looks very deep, as I have over 50 with draftable grades, but normally only about 33-35 will be drafted in a given year.

I prefer filling my WR corps in the 2nd and 3rd round, which appears to be the sweat spot in this year's draft.

Receivers absolutely must have exceptional hand-eye coordination and the ability to catch a football. While they should be as athletic as possible, receivers can get away with being quick (good acceleration in and out of breaks) or fast (elite top speed) or outstanding at competing for the ball against tight coverage (contested catches).

Deebo Samuel (South Carolina) is a personal favorite, who I profiled here.

Emmanuel Hall (Missouri) is deep threat with very good size (at 6'3, 200) who has averaged more than 20 yards per catch over his career, but missed most of Missouri's most high profile games with injuries.

Terry McLaurin (Ohio State) is a former high school SPARQ score freak. While he had to share the ball with Ohio State's other offensive stars, McLaurin still managed to average 20 yards per reception and 11 scores in 2018.

Jalen Hurd (Baylor) is a converted running back who transferred from Tennessee. Hurd finished his Vols' career with 2,638 rushing yards, 20 rushing touchdowns, 67 receptions, 492 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns.

Andy Isabella (Massachusetts) is a diminutive slot-machine, who lit up Georgia for 15 catches last season and might be the two best route runners in this draft class.

Hunter Renfrow (Clemson) is an undersized and limited athlete, who has shown a knack for making big plays in big games, including playing in three national championship games.

David Sills (West Virginia) is a converted quarterback who was one of the nation's most feared redzone targets the past two seasons, but whose statistics may be inflated by playing in the Big-12.

Anthony Johnson (Buffalo) is another ultra-productive receiver whose 40 time may make or break his draft stock. He should be drafted around the same draft slot as Michael Gallop (Pk #81).

Others:
Jakobi Meyers, NC State
Alex Wesley, Northern Colorado
Tyre Brady, Marshall
Jaylen Smith, Louisville
Keelan Doss, UC Davis
Travis Fulgham, Old Dominion
Penny Hart, Georgia State

Tight Ends:

The tight end position has been highly valued over the last two drafts with eight prospects going in the top 50 picks between both 2017 and 2018. Expect that trend to continue in 2019.

I expect either Dax Raymond (Utah State) or Josh Oliver (San Jose State) to leave the week a riser with potential to sneak into the top-100 picks. Moreau, Sweeney, and Sample are primarily blockers in college, but each have may have some untapped potential as receivers.

Offensive Tackles:

When evaluating OTs, I am looking almost exclusively at pass-protection. In today’s NFL, if you can not pass-protect, you can not play. Normally, I am quicker at identifying my Tackle to Guard converts, but I am still working on my breakdown.

To me it looks like a weak class of offensive tackles with Andre Dillard (Washington State), Kaleb McGary, (Washington), and Dennis Daley (South Carolina) being the best. Dane Brugler, of The Athletic, ranked Dillard 37th overall on his Top-50 Big Board, writing:

A better pass protector than run blocker on tape, Dillard rarely gets beat around the edge due to his light feet and core power. His lack of elite length is why some NFL teams are hoping to see him take reps at guard or center during Senior Bowl practices.

Wild cards are Tytus Howard (Alabama State) and the recently "called up" Olisaemeka Udoh (Elon), who was a Shrine Game participant. Howard came to Alabama State as a tight end but was moved to the offensive line, where he grew to be 6-foot-6 and 311 pounds.

Interior Offensive Line:

Over half of my top-20 interior Oline prospects have played the tackle position in college, including Dalton Risner (Kansas State) who graded so highly in ProFootball Focus' charting, that they mocked him going 11th overall.

PFF has been pretty good at identifying offensive lineman, a notoriously difficulty position to grade. They were the first to sing the praises of Will Hernandez and Dan Feeney, among others.

Some more seasoned evaluators have ranked him as a Day Three prospect, making him one of the most interesting Senior Bowl evaluations.

Senior Bowl executive Jim Nagy wrote "Certain college programs have reputations for cranking out quality NFL players at specific positions and one of the best OL-producing schools of the past decade is the University of Wisconsin." In 2019, the Badgers will send three more offensive lineman to the NFL, and could have three selected in the top-100 picks, including guards Michael Deiter and Ben Benzschawel. With 54 straight starts in college, Deiter had double-digit starts at tackle, guard and center for the Badgers.

Elgton Jenkins (Mississippi St), Ross Pierschbacher (Alabama), and Chris Lindstrom (Boston College) and each four year starters, while Garrett Bradbury (NC State) was a first team All-American in 2018, after he didn’t allow a single quarterback pressure all last season.

Oklahoma's Ben Powers and Dru Samia are just two of the four Sooners' offensive lineman expected to be drafted, after they collectively won the Joe Moore Award, given annually to college football best OLine.

Edge Rushers:

For most of the season, Montez Sweat (Mississippi State) was a sure-fire first round pick, but now draft analysts are starting to slide him down. He may be the highest ranked Senior Bowl participant on defense, but there are some character questions about why he transferred from Michigan State, and some feel his lower body is too thin to hold up against the run.

Gone are the days of requiring 6’5, 270 pounds to play on the edge, but the success rate plummets if you get below 6’3 or 250. Still, having long arms and big hands are a definite plus.

Fortunately the 2019 NFL draft is loaded with dynamic down lineman and edge rushers. In fact, we may see something like a 21-11 defense-offense split in Rd1.

Rushing the quarterback successfully requires a lot of burst as well as a lot of agility, balance, body control, and flexibility. All this equals the ability to "bend the edge", and will be something teams look for when watching the DLine vs OLine 1v1s.

Kentucky’s Josh Allen received PFF’s highest-graded edge defender in the country, but after initially accepting his invite, he (his agents) decided there was nothing to gain by attending the Senior Bowl.

Louisiana Tech may once again have another defensive lineman drafted in the first round, in DE Jaylon Ferguson. Draft analyst, Tony Pauline recently mocked him in the top-15. In the SoFi Hawai’i Bowl, Ferguson became the all-time NCAA holder for career sacks (previously held by Terrell Suggs).

Old Dominion’s Oshane Ximines’ performance against Virginia Tech was instrumental in ODU's upset victory. His 99.9 overall grade against VMI was the highest overall game grade PFF charted this season, and he has been mocked in the first round by various analysts, with the first being Matt Miller, and most recently by Mel Kiper.

Zach Allen (Boston College) is a different kind of edge. One that should be able to slide inside on 3rd down. Sources from around the league like Allen, but the degree to which they like him varies. Last fall Rob Rang ranked him 11th overall on his big board, and Tony Pauline said he was a top-20 pick. Others, like myself feel he is more of a 2nd rounder.

Defensive Lineman:

The trend is toward smaller, quicker defensive tackles, like Christian Wilkins, Alabama’s Quennin Williams, and Houston’s Ed Oliver - none of whom will be at the Senior Bowl.

Instead, we will see Gerald Willis (Miami), Isaiah Buggs (Alabama), and Renell Wren (Arizona State). Wren was a Bruce Feldman freak, whose rise should start at the Senior Bowl and continue through the NFL Combine.

Willis, a transfer from Florida, rose steadily throughout last season. On the other hand, Buggs steadily declined. He was easily controlled by Clemson's Jonah Williams, Oklahoma's Bobby Evans, and Georgia sophomore LT Andrew Thomas. Two comps: Breeland Speaks, Pk#46, Allen Bailey, Pk#86.

Greg Gaines (Washington) reminds me of Beau Allen (Buccaneers).

I have not watched Khalen Saunders (Western Illinois), who was an All-American in 2018. At 320 pounds, he had 72 total tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks his senior year.

Linebackers:

Modern linebackers must be excellent athletes, but their ability to make plays depends on a combination of speed and mental reaction time, so even if they fall short of elite in one attribute they can compensate with the others.

More and more teams are playing a safety at one of the LB positions in certain packages.Fortunately, Germaine Pratt, Drue Tranquil, and Chase Hansen all started their career at safety before transitioning to LB and all three will be at the Senior Bowl.

Others, like Khalil Hodge (Buffalo), Cameron Smith (USC), Deshaun Davis (Auburn), Ben Burr-Kirven (Washington) will need to prove they don't have to be taken out in obvious passing situations. The Senior Bowl will be an important step.

Cornerbacks:

From a pure athletic traits perspective, cornerbacks need speed, acceleration, and vertical explosiveness. Because they are required to line up one-on-one against a variety of receivers, corners cannot fall short in any one attribute. A corner who doesn’t have outstanding straight-line speed will get beat deep, a corner with sub-par acceleration will not be able to "mirror" his opponent, and a corner who cannot play vertically will be victimized by jump balls.

Additionally, some teams will not draft a corner that is shorter than six-foot and some teams prioritize arm length of at least 32-inches (Seattle hasn’t drafted a cornerback with sub-32 inch arms since Pete Carroll took over).

Lonnie Johnson (Kentucky) and Isaiah Johnson (Houston) fit their profile.

Teams that emphasize speed at the position may prefer Clemson corner Mark Fields. Before coming to Clemson, Fields won the Fastest Man competition at "The Opening", a HS All-Star game. Fields ran a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash for the win, and was third-best at the Nike HS Football SPARQ Combine, with a 113.52 rating - a score that combines results in the 40-yard dash, agility shuttle, vertical jump and kneeling power ball toss. Fields also has NFL bloodlines - father was NFL LB Mark Fields Sr., who was the 13th pick of the 1995 draft.

As an NFL analyst, new Raiders' GM Mike Mayock always talked about the importance of the ability to "flip your hips" but says the two characteristics he prioritizes at corner are 1) being able to locate and make a play on the ball when your back is turned and 2) you got to be competitive in all phases of the game, including tackling.

Rock Ya-Sin may fit the Mayock criteria. He only played one season at Temple after transferring from Presbyterian College after they dropped the football program.

Texas corner Kris Boyd has excellent athleticism for the cornerback position, with bad film. He has been toasted by virtually all the best Big-12 receivers.

All the guys at The Draft Network have been high on Amani Oruwariye (Penn State), regularly ranking them in their top-32. TDN's Joe Marino - "Oruwariye’s size, length, strength and ball skills make him an ideal fit to matchup with "X" receivers in man coverage."

Nickelbacks are starters for the majority of NFL teams.

No longer is a nickelback defined as the team’s third best corner, but instead it is a starting position, in which a unique skill set is required.

The 2018 draft was the first time I saw significant draft capital being invested at the Nickel/Slot Defender position. Not only was Minkah Fitzpatrick drafted 11th overall, but MJ Stewart and Duke Dawson each just missed out on being top-50 selections.

Miami's Jaquan Johnson and Sheldrick Redwine, Mike Edwards (Kentucky), and Darnell Savage (Maryland) are each listed at safety but NFL teams may be interested in them as NFL nickelbacks.

Safety:

I have stated through the years it is the most difficult position to evaluate. For us watching the games on TV, sometimes they do not even appear on the screen. The Senior Bowl and NFL Combine are helpful.

In 2018, Virginia’s Quin Blanding, Oklahoma’s Steven Parker, Georgia’s Dominque Sanders, and Ohio State’s Damon Webb and Tyris Powell all went undrafted.

The theme is that big hitters with poor athleticism are being devalued by the NFL. If you can’t cover, the NFL has little use for you.

However, nine safeties have been drafted in the top-100 in each of the past two drafts.

Virginia's Juan Thornhill is a player I profiled recently. He started out at corner, before transitioning to safety for his senior year, and may have some Eddie Jackson/Adrian Amos potential.

Dane Brugler recently ranked Nasir Adderley (Delaware) 21st overall on his big board, and considers him the draft's #1 safety. Adderley, who is 6-foot and 200 pounds, finished his career with 265 total tackles and 11 interceptions. Brugler writes Adderley "has cornerback feet and hips with the ball-hawking instincts of a free safety."

Johnathan Abram (Mississippi State) has been described as an interchangeable safety with the instincts of a free safety and the physicality of a box player.

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