In 2016 the Panthers invested their first round pick, No. 30 overall, in defensive tackle Vernon Butler. The thought process at the time was Butler would immediately add to the already potent combination of Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei, while in the long run provide some insurance in the event Short or Lotulelei couldn’t be re-signed.
This is exactly what first round picks are expected to do – contribute immediately while being a key piece in the team’s long-term planning.
Fast forward two years from the 2016 draft. KK Short has signed a five-year, $80.5 million extension. Star is heading into free agency this offseason and Carolina may not have the cap space available to re-sign him.
And that leaves us with Vern.
I’m going to ask an uncomfortable question for someone like me who loves the Panthers and pulls for every player: After two seasons and 24 NFL games, is Vernon Butler ready for prime time?
It’s an important question because so much of the Panthers defensive success revolves around a stout front four who can eat blockers, stuff the run, and pressure the quarterback. With Star Lotulelei coming off an inconsistent 2017 and possibly leaving Carolina, a lot of responsibility might rest on Vernon Butler in 2018.
Is he ready?
Butler’s first two seasons
Vern’s measurable statistics through two seasons are below expectations for a first round pick. The initial hope was for Bulter to be blossoming into the next Kawaan Short at this point in his young career, but the reality is his impact has been more comparable to teammate Kyle Love:
Vernon Butler 2016-2017
Season | Games | Snaps | % Def. Snaps | Combined Tackles | Sacks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Games | Snaps | % Def. Snaps | Combined Tackles | Sacks |
2016 | 14 | 225 | 21% | 13 | 0.0 |
2017 | 10 | 297 | 30% | 13 | 1.5 |
Total | 24 | 522 | 25% | 26 | 1.5 |
Kyle Love 2016-2017
Season | Games | Snaps | % Def. Snaps | Combined Tackles | Sacks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Season | Games | Snaps | % Def. Snaps | Combined Tackles | Sacks |
2016 | 10 | 224 | 21% | 16 | 1.5 |
2017 | 16 | 379 | 38% | 16 | 3.5 |
Total | 26 | 603 | 29% | 32 | 5.0 |
As a frame of reference, in Kawann Short’s first two seasons he played in all 32 games and recorded 69 tackles with 5.0 sacks. Star Lotulelei ‘s first two seasons consisted of 30 games with 68 tackles and 5.0 sacks.
Now, much of what defensive tackles do doesn’t show up in the box score, such as engaging two blockers or collapsing a running lane. Plus, Vern’s stats shouldn’t be expected to mirror Short or Lotulelei just yet because he’s had far fewer snaps to start his career backing up two entrenched starters. Pro Football Focus evaluates a player’s impact on every play (not just measurable stats like tackles and sacks) to assign player grades and ratings. While PFF’s subjective scoring system isn’t perfect, it still offers helpful data in assessing players like defensive linemen where simple, measurable stats break down.
Vernon Butler’s 2017 PFF grade was 75.2, which rates him as “Average.”
Kyle Love’s 2017 PFF grade was slightly less at 68.5, which rates him as “Below Average.”
After two full seasons, a first round pick like Butler should be impacting the game far more than a rotational player like Kyle Love. In Vern’s defense, he has played through ankle and knee injuries, but such is life in the NFL. While Butler has shown some flashes of his potential, like his Week 12 performance against the Jets, he still hasn’t demonstrated the ability to impact games on a week-in, week-out basis like Short and Lotulelei had done to begin their careers.
The sunk cost fallacy
As a Panthers fan, I want Vernon Butler to succeed. Heck, I want him to dominate. I want him to be an All-Pro. I want him to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. I want him to hoist the Lombardi Trophy multiple times in a Panthers uniform. I’m invested in his success.
But I also know we as fans sometimes fall for something called the Sunk Cost Fallacy when it comes to our first round picks. Our favorite team invests a lot in first round selections and because of this we as fans sometimes get overly optimistic about how good they actually are or can become. Here is how Harvard Business Review defines a sunk cost:
“When making investment decisions, people often factor in costs they have already incurred. If they abandon a project, those costs won’t be recovered. Their hope is that if the project continues, the costs can be recouped, vindicating earlier decisions to invest. But a rational decision maker will look only at future costs, not at past ones.”
So, rather than looking at Vernon Butler as a former first round pick, we should be looking at him as player entering his third season who has performed on par with Kyle Love. Ask yourself what you would expect of Butler next year if he had been a fourth round pick instead of a first rounder in light of his career 26 tackles and 1.5 sacks. What if he had been an undrafted free agent? Is his status as a former first rounder making us view his potential with rose-colored glasses?
Butler can – and hopefully will – only get better from here. He is young (he turns 24 this summer), but there are no guarantees he will magically “make the leap” in 2018 by virtue of having been a first round draft pick two years ago.
I’m not saying Butler is a bust or that he’s bad. That’s not the case. I’m only suggesting we should be realistic in how we evaluate his performance thus far and temper our expectations for the future. Through two seasons, Big Vern has yet to show he can effectively help anchor the defensive front. Whether or not Star Lotulelei stays in Carolina, the Panthers are going to need much more out of him in 2018.
The Panthers don’t need Vernon Butler to be Kyle Love 2.0. They need him to be Kawann Short 2.0, impacting the game every week of the season.
Based on what I’ve seen from Big Vern so far, I’m still not fully convinced he’s ready for prime time.
I hope I’m wrong.
Poll
What do you expect of Vernon Butler in 2018?
This poll is closed
-
3%
Pro bowler
-
35%
Consistent impact player
-
46%
Starter with average impact
-
13%
Continued rotational depth
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1%
He regresses from here