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2018 NFL Draft: Christian Kirk scouting report

C. Morgan Engel-USA TODAY Sports

Disclaimer: I am far from an authority on football. I like to think I know what I'm seeing but I could be totally off base. All my knowledge of football is as a fan.

Opinions vary, for some reason, as to whether or not the Panthers should draft a receiver in the first round. I fall firmly on the "yes" side of the spectrum. I like Funchess, Samuel, and Byrd, but we desperately need a possession chain mover-type of receiver in the Cotchery mold, except somebody who can actually create yardage. Samuel can do that, and was in fact drafted, in his words, as a "slot receiver," but we saw him splitting out wide a lot more after Kelvin Benjamin was traded and I think that's where the staff sees him making his bones. Byrd is the same way; I've only seen him line up outside for the Panthers.

There is an argument that you can find slot receivers later in the draft, but the Panthers rightly value versatility and I don't think they'd love a receiver who can only line up in the slot. Additionally, I'm not looking for a classic "slot receiver" type for the Panthers: a smaller, quicker than fast receiver who makes tough catches but doesn't often create yardage, you know what I'm talking about. That's what people refer to when they say slot receivers can be found later. I want a really good receiver who can line up in the slot position.

Christian Kirk from Texas A&M has been extremely hyped since he was a true freshman because of his athleticism and immediate playing time. Hype cooled on him a little this season with A&M's subpar season, but he's still a very good prospect. Here's what I see from him:

Positives

  • Measurables/Numbers: Listed at 5'11 and 200 pounds, Kirk has a sturdy frame well suited for taking contact over the middle of the field, where he can expect to do most of his damage in the pros. His athletic profile is droolworthy; as a senior in high school at Nike's SPARQ camp in 2014, he posted a 4.47 40-yard dash, a 39-inch vertical, and a 4.25 20-yard shuttle. His SPARQ score was 129.3, where a score above 130 is "elite NFL athlete" status. Ideally he can improve on these numbers at the combine, but it's definitely promising. Draft analytics favor him as well; he earned more than 25% of his team's receiving yardage and touchdowns in all 3 of his years in college, including 10 of 22 his junior year. He is slightly old for his class but, since he is a true junior, still fairly young, as he will be 21 when the 2018 NFL season starts. All of these bode well for his future success (this is the last time I will mention numbers in this breakdown).
  • Making Adjustments: This is my favorite thing about Kirk, and it encompasses a lot of things. The most obvious is his instinct to give his QB an open target when protection breaks down, as seen here:

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This is something sorely needed from the Panthers' WR corps.

But that's not all I mean by adjustment. Kirk also helps his quarterback by being an accuracy eraser; he will use every bit of his ability to catch poorly thrown balls, whether they be behind, high, low, whatever. This was most on display during his 2017 season, where his quarterback play was abysmal and he had to deal with throws like this one on a regular basis:

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This is a really tough catch, as he's running the other way when the ball is thrown. He doesn't have his body or momentum behind the catch to ease the ball into his hands, he just has to snare it. His quick and soft hands allow him to do just that.

The third thing I mean by "adjustment" is related to the above. Even when Kirk got accurate targets, they were still very often on his body, not catching him in stride. This is obviously suboptimal for a couple of reasons: It narrows the space between the defensive back and the catch point, and it hampers the receiver from getting yards after the catch. The first point is something Kirk can't do too much about, but as for the second, he shows a fairly unique knack for taking a hop-step in order to slow himself down just enough to collect the ball and explode out of it, turning himself into a runner as quickly as possible.

In general, Kirk is good at quickly transitioning from receiver to runner, knowing what angles to position his hands and shoulders at to create the most natural motion and not spend time resetting his body. This makes him dynamic in space (more on this later) and also helps him on screens. Christian McCaffrey also has this skill, and it's this more than anything that makes him special.

  • Athleticism: I mentioned the numbers before, but it's worth noting that with Kirk, everything translates to the field. He has excellent body control, consistently outran his competition, showed good leaping ability, and has excellent agility.
  • Route running potential: One question some have about Kirk is his WR IQ, so to speak, his ability to run multiple routes because of his extensive usage from the slot in college and his background as a high school running back who transitioned to receiver. He was protected a fair bit in college; he ran A TON of pivot routes, which you don't usually assign to a full-time receiver. To his credit, he's really good at them.

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He has the awareness to stem down a little instead of flat to get running room against the defenders so he can beat them with his speed. You can also see how quickly he becomes a runner here despite a ball thrown against his momentum.

But even on downfield routes, Kirk's agility shows up, as he can make small-ish changes direction at full speed, gaining a step on defenders. When he has to fully change direction, he is capable of putting a foot in the ground and doing so with little wasted motion, like on this touchdown (disregard that he runs this route from the backfield, as I think the route translates regardless):

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(No, this isn't the cleanest of catches. More on this later)

And for a complete change of direction, check this out:

vBLjT2H.0.gif(ignore the yellow telestrator, follow the guy marked by the red arrow)

  • Makes winning plays: I watched four cut-ups for this breakdown. In the three in which A&M had their backs against the wall, it was Kirk they went to, and without fail, he delivered: Got open for a potential GW TD against Tennessee before an uncalled DPI stopped him from catching the ball, then came back to put his team on the 2-yard line in 2OT. Brought his team to within 1 score against Arkansas with a kickoff return with 6 minutes left, then the game-winner in overtime. And against Wake Forest, with an injured leg, he scored a touchdown with under 6 minutes to go to put A&M on top before they would give up the lead again. Kirk is a big-moment player.

Decent/inconsistent

Some may disagree with me putting these two things in the same category, but here's my justification: I don't think the things I'm listing as inconsistencies are liabilities for Kirk. At his best they are assets, and at his worst they are unremarkable. The liabilities will come later.

  • Catching Technique: Matt Waldman does a thorough explanation of this in this video, which I recommend you check out. Basically, he says that Kirk doesn't always catch the ball cleanly: he sometimes tries to body catch or trap the ball with his hands instead of snagging it. I'm not sure how much to blame this on Kirk, seeing as his QB play was so bad that it often forced him to body catch (and to hear it from Devin Funchess, body catching isn't always a bad thing). And he makes hands catches with regularity as well, in frame and out of frame. Still, this can't be ignored, as Kirk's tendency to try and trap the ball could get him in trouble. This isn't a touchdown in the NFL:pS88BTC.0.gif
  • Vision/Field Awareness: This is the one I'm most shocked by, honestly, because Kirk sometimes displays excellent vision. He was a dynamic returner in college, with 5 punt return touchdowns and a kick return house call, so it's clearly there. Sometimes, though, as a receiver in a broken field, he'll choose to run into a pile and push it instead of trying to get around it for more yards. It's something that can be cleaned up, and he more than makes up for it in all the other ways he creates yardage, but it does hold him back sometimes, like so:

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It's a tough ask, but you'd like to see Kirk try and use a jump cut to get inside the crashing defender, where the good block occurs, instead of trying to beat a really good angle to the sideline. This could also be helped by not turning his back to the defense on his catch, though this is tough because of the ball's placement. Other than that, he's usually quite good at getting to the marker, with several plays where he jumps away from contact at the sideline and reaches out to score or convert a first down.

  • Blocking: Nothing inconsistent about this... Kirk isn't a particularly notable blocker by any means, but he isn't afraid to get into it with defensive players and doesn't commit penalties, which is about all you can ask for. Matt Miller says here that he's never seen a receiver prospect lose estimation for blocking, for what it's worth.

Needs to improve/did not see

  • Skills at the catch point: I haven't seen Kirk win real 50/50 balls in the tape I've watched, though it's more a problem of opportunity than ability. He gets open enough that he didn't have to take the ball away from defensive players. I will say that he did make several contested catches, which is a plus for him. As a mostly slot receiver prospect, 50/50 balls aren't really going to be his forte, so I wouldn't worry about it too much, but it's good to keep in mind. He manages to be a red zone threat with his speed and agility.
  • Catch radius: Kirk will catch out of his frame, but even when he does so, he shortens his catch radius a little. He doesn't often catch at extension, which both diminishes his accuracy-erasing ability (though it is still, as noted above, very good) and the ease with which he can catch some balls. Waldman talks about it in the above video, but just in case, here's an example, which to be fair is on the extreme side: 0HY6JkG.0.gifIt didn't get him in trouble this time, because his separation and the route concept were enough to beat the defender. This is a habit he has to get rid of, though.

All in all, I would be very excited about Kirk on the Panthers. He's not a flawless prospect, but I've seen that the good vastly outweighs the bad with him, and he brings a dimension that the Panthers don't have on offense right now as an intermediary between "small, fast guy" and "big guy." I suspect that this combine is going to give a big crop of receivers, including Kirk, a significant bump in draft stock, so I doubt he escapes the first round, and I'd be more than comfortable taking him there.

Games watched: Alabama 2016, Tennessee 2016, Arkansas 2017, Wake Forest 2017 (bowl game). Go watch his UCLA tape, too, because it's ridiculous. UCLA's defense is awful, though, so I didn't include it.

Link to an album of my images in case they don't load: https://imgur.com/a/W39Ek

Let me know what you think in the comments!

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