Say what you will about the beginning of this season in terms of the quality of the matchups, the latter half of this season has been anything but boring. A number of quality games between divisional leaders are on the docket from here until the end of the season, including an all out battle between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints. Thought to be a bad year for the Saints, they seemingly turned everything around against the Panthers in week 3, winning decisively by a 34-13 margin. They would rattle off eight straight wins before finally succumbing to the Los Angeles Rams last week, setting up a huge NFC South meeting this week that neither team can truly afford to lose.
For the Saints, a loss would mean not only their second straight, but they would allow the Panthers to take the drivers seat in a potential bid for not only the NFC South title, but a potential first round bye as well. For the Panthers, a loss would mean they go 2-2 in the division and they would have to hope and pray the Saints falter again before seasons end if they hope to catch up. In all likelihood, a loss for the Panthers means a wild card spot is probably the best they can hope for.
This game will hinge on a number of factors, but playing in the Superdome and escaping with a win is a very tough prospect. It isn’t impossible, but the Panthers will need to be much better as an entire team if they hope to win. If they play like they did against the New York Jets last week, this one could be over by halftime.
Let’s delve into the offense a bit more.
- Cam Newton has to become Superman: After a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins in the passing game, things took a step backwards last week against the Jets for Newton. A sore thumb and windy conditions on the field clearly affected his ability to make throws on a consistent basis. I’m utterly convinced that his statline from the game is an outlier, but the thumb injury is the real concern. If it is still hurting him and limiting him in practice, this will continue to hamper the Panthers offense through the air.
- Speaking of injuries...: The biggest thing to keep an eye on for this one apart from Newton’s thumb injury is Saints rookie CB Marshon Lattimore’s injury status. The young phenom has been the lynchpin in a total 180 degree reversal of play for the Saints defense this year, and his absence has left the unit vulnerable through the air. Getting injured early on in their improbable win against the Washington Redskins, the defense has allowed a total of 627 yards through the air in the last two games, as well as five touchdowns. If Lattimore’s ankle keeps him out again, the Panthers will have a prime opportunity to expose a defense that was run over by Jared Goff and the Rams (playing without their top wide receiver in Robert Woods) last week. If Lattimore can go, then things will be much more difficult through the air.
- Offensive line consistency: If there is one thing we haven’t really complained about much lately, it is the offensive line. While Newton was sacked three times last week, not all of those can be blamed on the line. Our own Erik Sommers pointed out that in his Hog Molly Report that all three of those sacks came off a blitz as well. The Panthers will need to replicate that success against a 4-man rush, as well as fend off the blitz better against the Saints. Defensive end Cameron Jordan has been the main wrecking ball for the Saints defensive line, accumulating 10 sacks on the season so far, as well as starting a feud with Newton after their first matchup of the season. The Panthers offensive line will need to hold the line to give Newton time to throw, especially if Lattimore is in the game.
- Get the father & son duo going: Greg Olsen’s return last week was as exciting as many probably expected, as the all-pro tight end only caught one pass for 10 yards and exited early to avoid aggravating his recently healed broken foot. The Panthers didn’t have Olsen in that week 3 clash and it showed. There will be a re-acclimation period for Olsen to get back to game shape, but we need him to be more involved this week if humanly possible. If there was one positive to pull from that week 3 loss, it was the play of running back Christian McCaffery. McCaffrey had his best pass catching performance of the season against the Saints, nabbing nine passes for 101 yards. McCaffery’s progression over the course of the season so far and Saints inability to cover him should make him a prime target this weekend to utilize.
- Grind the run game: The Saints defense has allowed over 100 yards on the ground just once in the last four weeks. While the Panthers torrid ground attack did came down to earth somewhat last week, the offense still managed to smash the Jets for 154 rushing yards. Getting running back Jonathan Stewart, McCaffrey, and Newton involved on the ground early and with success will set the pace for the game.
This is going to be a huge game for both teams, and not many people are going to give the Panthers much of a chance to win in New Orleans this weekend. But last week proved that smart, disciplined offense can get the job done against their defense. The Saints flirted with danger against the Redskins and it finally bit them against the Rams. Here’s hoping the third time is a charm and the Panthers can leave New Orleans with a clear lead in the NFC South.