Winning comes easily if your offense can sustain drives and convert in enemy territory. At least in theory.
I've learned a lot from reading Bill Connelly's excellent work at Football Study Hall and Football Outsiders. Bill's primary focus is on college football. In reading his weekly recaps of college football games, two statistics in particular caught my eye: leverage rate and scoring opportunities.
From the Football Outsiders glossary:
Leverage Rate: Percentage of a college football team's plays that take place on Non-Passing Downs, defined as all first downs, second down with 1-7 yards to go, or third/fourth down with 1-4 yards to go.
The leverage rate serves as a barometer for an offense's health. Common sense tells us that it is much easier to convert 3rd & 3 than 3rd & 9. Find yourself facing 3rd & 3 more often than 3rd & 9 and you should be in good shape.
A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense picks up a first down inside the opponent's 40-yard line. Similar to hockey's 'scoring chances', there is an inherent correlation between scoring opportunities and scoring.
I decided to extrapolate these statistics to the NFL, specifically the 2014 Carolina Panthers Offense.
With no benchmark of comparison, and on the eve of a new season, it is tough to lay any definitive grades on last year's offense.
Leverage Rate:
For the regular season, Carolina finished with a leverage rate of 64.7%
Each individual week has its own story. Take the midseason home loss to Seattle. As far as leverage rate is concerned, Carolina had its best half of the season in the first half: 28 standard downs against only 5 passing downs (85% leverage rate).
The most interesting contrast would be the two New Orleans games. Carolina scored their single game high (Week 14) and low (Week 9) against the Saints. Film study? Schematic wrinkles?
Correlated with the Panthers late season surge is something of an increase in leverage rate across the final six games.
Over the course of the year we also get a taste for Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula's play-calling tendencies. Carolina passed the ball on 51.5% of all standard downs last season, compared with 74.3% of passing downs. In spurts you can see visible trends, i.e. running on 2nd &10+.
Scoring Opportunities:
In 2014 Carolina accrued 77 scoring opportunities over 16 games. By hook or by crook, just under five times per contest the Panthers were awarded a first down inside the opponent's 40-yard line. The interesting stuff comes in looking at conversion rates.
Last season the Panthers converted 40.3% of their scoring opportunities into touchdowns, 36.4% into field goals, and 23.4% were left to 'failed' drives (no points). Nearly a quarter of Carolina's scoring chances resulted in nothing.
Remember the Seattle game? Carolina moved the ball against the Seahawks Defense, but they could not convert any of their five scoring opportunities into touchdowns.
Moving forward:
I'm curious to look at the other side of the picture. How does the Panthers defense do at forcing opponents into passing downs? Is Carolina stout when the opponent is in scoring range?
In addition, I'm interested in seeing if a high leverage rate is more the result of play-calling or execution. Finding an answer may prove impossible. As with most things, the answer probably lies in the middle.