FanPost

The 2014 Panthers - A team with a Drafting problem

Successful Franchises build through the draft. It's an expression many NFL fans have recognized as the best way to build a team, relying on home grown talent rather than free agents and high cost gambles. For years Marty Hurney claimed to be successfully building the Carolina Panthers through the draft rather than free agency. Unfortunately for Panther fans, Hurney was not only very bad at picking players in the NFL draft, he over paid to keep the talent the team accumulated.

How were the Panthers built?

As a result of unfortunate injuries (Beason) as well as questionable contracts (Stew, Dwill, Big Money) For well over two season the Panthers have been a cash strapped team, unable to take gambles on potential FA's because of the large amount of money tied up in the same position as well as over paid players. Many want to point to the salary cap as the main culprit in the bad construction of the 2014 roster, as Dave simply doesn't have the cash to spend in order to fix roster holes. While this is a very legitimate point, I argue that the failure of the 2014 Panthers started long ago, through the failures of draft class after draft class.

Good teams build through the draft by selecting players that hopefully can provide an immediate contribution, but more importantly, players that will provide a lasting contribution. General guidelines say that a draft class takes three years to develop and be accurately evaluated, so for this investigation we will go back and visit the draft classes that should contribute to the base of a team. Ignoring the past three drafts, 2012 - 2014, we will compare the Panther's 2011 - 2008 draft class to some of the most successful teams in the league. While 2012-2014 provides the infusion of young talent a team needs to get over the hump or continue to stay relevant, teams need a strong base of veterans who know the system and how to play in the NFL.

Players from the 2011 - 2008 draft classes entered the 2014 season somewhere between being 4th and 7th year players. These are players who have had time to learn the game, the coaches system, and should be entering the prime of their careers. At this point many of the classes have already played through their first contract and some teams need to make the tough decisions to either overpay to keep players, or let them walk for the greater good.

How well have other teams drafted?

The two most recent Superbowl winners have done a fair job of drafting and retaining talent. The Ravens are an example of a team that was drafting terrifically from 2008 - 2011. Despite letting players like Michael Oher, Paul Kruger, Ray Rice, Arthur Jones(our own Dickson) and other talented players to walk, the Ravens still retain 9 players from those 4 draft classes. These players have helped contribute to the base of their team, including Joe Flacco, Ladarius Webb, Jimmy Smith, Torrey Smith, and Dennis Pitta. The Seattle Seahawks have also kept 9 players from 2008-2011, with a mixture of role players and contributors, the Seahawks assembled the entire LoB in these drafts; Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, Earl Thomas, Cam Chancellor, as well as their LB core.

Looking at two of the most successful teams the past years, the Packers and Patriots, you see similar results. The Patriots have managed to retain 10 players from these four drafts, and also successfully traded away Ryan Mallet for a draft pick. The Patriots' haul includes half the starting offense with the likes of Gronk, both starting offensive tackles Soldier and Vollmer, both RBs Vareen and Ridley, as well pro-bowl safety McCourtney and multiple depth and role players. The Packers have retained a shocking 13 players from those four draft classes. These players fill quiet a bit of depth on the Packers roster and also includes pro bowlers Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, Randell Cobb & Jordey Nelson.

How well did Marty Hurney draft?

Not well, most Panther fans painfully admit the 2011 draft was an epic failure. A team that was suppose to be holding the 1st selection in every round, the Panthers' walked away with 1 player. The 1st overall draft pick and in retrospect an obvious choice. Truth be told, 2011 was one of the most talented group of players to ever enter the league. With the likes of Cam Newton, Patrick Peterson, Von Miller, JJ Watt and numerous other greats, it would have been nearly impossible to miss with this selection, so Hurney deserves minimum credit for selecting Cam. The truth is nearly every draft over those four years under Hurney's watch were failures. After comparing former Superbowl winners and perennial contenders from both the NFC and AFC retaining anywhere from 9 - 13 players from those classes, it's easy to understand why the Panthers are a team lacking Talent. Out of those entire 4 draft classes, which includes 4 probowl players on each roster for the other four teams examined, the Panthers only have 2 on the active roster. Let repeat that, the Packers kept 13 players 4 of which were Pro bowlers, the Panthers have two! Cam Newton and a highly paid ball of potential with no ankles.

Cam Newton is the only Probowl player and only starter on the Panther's roster from 4 years of draft classes. This is the #1 reason why the Panthers are struggling, a pure lack of talent due to failed draft after failed draft. The difference 7 contributors could make is immeasurable. Not just contributiors, veteran players who could help provide leadership and guidance for a young team. As I mentioned, every team we just examined had 4 probowl players from those drafts. Imagine adding just 1 probowl safety and 1 probowl offensive tackle to this team. Instead of grabbing Jimmy Clausen and Brandon Lafell, the 2010 selections of Jared Valdeer in the 2nd and SS Cam Chancellor in the 4th transform this roster significantly.

So our roster really does suck, is there any good news?

Yes! There is a lot of talent in the pipeline. Marty Hurney's final passing gift to the Panthers was Luke Kuechley and the 2012 draft class. The 2012 class is one of the best and one of the deeper draft classes Hurney produced. Kuechley, Josh Norman and Brad Nortman were all terrific selections. If every draft produced three starters we'd be leading the NFC South. In addition to those three, Amini will serve as depth next season and Frank Alexander has an opportunity to produce if he can get his act together.

Any better news than that?

Yes! Dave Gettleman has shown in two season to be very skilled at drafting quality players. In two draft classes Dave appears to have hit on numerous selections. The past two drafts include hitting on 3 of 5 selections, taking Star, Short & Klein in 2013, and going 4 for 6 in 2014 with KB, Ealy, Turner, and Bene. For those of us keeping track, that is 7/11 in two years, roughly 10 starters and multiple contributors from the last 3 drafts; including Luke, Klein, Norman, Bene, Star and Short, roughly half the defense. These selections can compete with any teams 3 year draft history and is a sign for optimism for the future.

So what now?

That's a terrific question. As we sit here watching the 2014 season burn to the ground, we are all trying to point fingers on who is to blame. Dave, Ron, Shula, Cam? I argue that this years struggles are still highly due to Marty's failure as a GM. Do I personal believe in Shula and Ron? No, not really, especially Shula. I would like a new head coach and I demand a new offensive coordinator in 2015. Am I saying the Dave deserves none of the blame? No. Signing DeCoud and Harper over other FA safeties was a horrible decision. But we must be mindful of the current situation and keep our eyes on the prize that Dave keeps repeating.

This is a long term process fixing the major mess Marty created though failed drafts and bad cap management. It's almost hard to wonder how we ever competed with Marty leading the way. Dave is currently filing the team with quality talent and doing everything he can to spend frugally in order to fix the cap long term. While we all want to complain about Bell, Chandler, DeCoud and Harper, one detail to remember is that none of these moves put pressure on future Cap space. The decision to sign Jarius Byrd on a back loaded contract will come back to hurt the Saints. Anthony Collins isn't playing anywhere near the level of his new contract in Tampa, Hakeem Nicks hasn't done much of anything in Indy. For every bad contract Dave did sign, there is another contract he looks smart for not signing. Year by year the Panthers truly are acquiring great talent and slowly the cap is being fixed. Keep your eyes on the prize, 2015 may be the last bump, by 2016 this team should be filled with talent and have the cap space to retain it.

If you enjoyed this piece please drop a rec, I have two others in the making that I'll be more likely to finish.

-Thanx

EDIT - Now that we've learned how the 2014 roster was assembled, lets take a look at the 2015 roster to see how much cap space and what roster moves we can expect. Preview - 2015 Cap & 53 Man Roster

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