It wasn't so long ago, in happier times when the Carolina Panthers were just 0-5 that we were talking about how great it would be to find out way in the top three and get Georgia WR A.J. Green. Obviously since then things went a lot worse, which is why we're picking #1 overall, but Green fell out of consideration in the minds of a lot of fans.
It's clear to see why this is the case. With two promising young receivers in Brandon LaFell and David Gettis there seems to be less of a need to take a WR with the #1 overall pick and more of a willingness to give LaFell and Gettis time while Steve Smith rides out his career and then evaluate where we stand at the position.
However, there is another school of thought that says if you have a bonafide, elite WR available then you should take him. Perhaps elite WRs don't carry those lofty cliches like 'Once in a decade' but the fact is we've only seen a few truly elite (top 5) WRs in the last 10 years: Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson- all legitimate game changing players, all were gone before the #5 overall pick.
If I had my druthers the Panthers wouldn't take Green, but he does fulfill a lot of needs and if you read between the lines a little bit I think you'll see there's a good chance he should be in the conversation more.
More after the jump
The first tip I like to give newcomers to following the draft is to not pay attention to what is said at the scouting combine/ pro days and don't read too much into who is or isn't in attendance. The key is to pay attention to who teams are privately working out. This simple rule never fails, teams almost never pick someone who they haven't worked out privately.
From there, things get a little more convoluted. You need to look at your team individually and use some educated guesses, and a bit of subjective evaluation. One thing I've noticed about the Panthers' tendencies is that they often tip their hand on what positions they're interested in, but oftentimes talk the least about the guy they like the most. It's tough to know what the Panthers will do with Ron Rivera under the helm, and it's too early to determine if he really is being a straight shooter or if there is some obfuscation involved.
That being said, here are 5 good reasons why I think A.J. Green could be the #1 pick:
1. The Panthers have been quietly interested in Green: We haven't heard his name mentioned much, but notice that all the team's scouts were in Georgia for his pro day and the Panthers plan to work out Green privately. This alone gives reason to believe he's in the mix.
2. Rob Chudzinski has used guys like Green to great effect: While definitely more talented than either of them A.J. Green is in the mold of Braylon Edwards and Vincent Jackson, both of whom were used to great effect by Rob Chudzinski. The signing of Jeremy Shockey lends credence to the idea that Chudz is getting who he needs to run an offense effectively, and a WR like Green is something he's used a lot in the past.
3. The old "he's sliding down draft boards" trick: Notice that after the combine this was said by many pundits. "I hear A.J Green could be behind Julio Jones now". It's tough not to fall for this, but notice now that Green is making a rise back up. From ESPN's Adam Schefter yesterday:
"After talking to seven personnel men today, it sounds like Georgia WR A.J. Green is top-rated player in draft. We'll see if he goes #1."
4. Thinking long term: It's something that Jerry Richardson said on Panthers' Pulse last week, he wants Marty to think "More long term". Granted, this could have a lot of different meanings, but one could definitely be anticipating the departure of Steve Smith either now, or in 2-3 years and having an elite WR waiting in the wings.
5. An 'impact player' and 'needing to get the pick right': Again these are two subjective terms, but if the Panthers want to guarantee they get an impact player and also guarantee they get the pick right while fixing the side of the ball that needs the most work then A.J Green is really the only choice out there.
Like I said earlier, Green may not be my personal preference for who Carolina should take with a #1 overall pick, but there are a lot of good reasons why he could/should be the pick. Teaming Green with Steve Smith will immediately make any veteran QBs job easier, and lead to wins quickly rather than being a slower burn. Personally, I know we're hearing "8-10 players being in the mix" but really, at #1 I think we'll only see one of the following players: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Patrick Peterson, A.J. Green, Marcell Dareus.
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