Disclaimer: This is an opinion, it is all an opinion and as such open to disagreement.
With the Patriots set to try and not get caught cheating play against the Steelers tonight, it's time to pick the stars of your fantasy draft and get to kicking virtual butt. If you drafted Brady before he was re-instated, congratulations, nobody in your league likes you. In reality he's a pretty good start, let's take a look at players around the league set to make an immediate impact.
Panthers:
Cam Newton:
If you've got Cam in your line up, it's almost a no-brainer to put the most photogenic QB in NFL history on the field. A lot of analysts are calling Cam a trap and I agree, to an extent. His expectations should be tempered following the loss of KB and a shaky at best receiving corps. Then again, last I checked, tv serial killer turned TE, Greg Olsen was still a go for Sunday and Cam still has his legs under him. What we can't do through the air I fully expect to see happen on the ground against a soft D. (Yes I chuckled like a 12 year old writing that sentence.) Point is we have a healthier Cam than perhaps ever before, he is prepared and if you've been watching, his leadership has taken a huge leap this off season which should pay dividends come game day.
Jonathan Stewart:
J-Stew is Carolina's workhorse and he will continue to be for as long as he can suit up. With Stewart's history that could be one week or ten weeks, no one ever knows. It's good to have a back up plan. If you're a true Homer, we have a stable of quality backs now that you could grab off the wire. My choice would be CAP, who seems to be the coach's favorite behind Stewart and a good change of pace back, in the vein of Williams from seasons past.
Greg Olsen:
Old Greg! (Look that up on YouTube, seriously). I've got Greg in the top 3 of TEs consistently. If you can grab him, you gotta start him. With the inconsistency that is evident from the WRs on this team, Greg is back to his star role as Cam's security blanket. With Oher and a hopefully improved O-Line, Greg isn't relegated to blocking duties any longer and likely blows up against the Jaguars on Sunday. With numbers you'd expect from a #1 WR and the build to make an ideal red zone target, Olsen is the go to guy for wracking up fantasy points early and often.
Kelv.....damn it.
Just damn it.
Carolina Defense:
Rankings differ depending on which 'analyst' you watch but it's hard to argue that Carolina has one of the best defenses hitting the field these days. I rank them top 10, opinions may vary. With the addition of Shaq Thompson and a season starting with a healthy Charles Johnson, Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly it's a scary monster to line up against. When you add in the addition of Kurt Coleman taking the FS role and Kony Ealy showing flashes of his true potential I predict a 2013 style resurgence from the Black and Blue Crew. (nickname still pending.....honestly why don't we have one yet?)
IDP Leagues:
Luke Kuechly:
Luke is a week in, week out starter. Not starting him is tantamount to benching your starting QB acquisition and your former 1st round draft choice in favor of a third string, 6th round FA. Who even does that? Don't do that. Start Luke. LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKE!!!!!!!!!
Kurt Coleman:
It was announced Wednesday that Coleman has earned the starting spot, most likely at free safety. He is returning to the position where he had the most success as an Eagle, where he learned under then secondary and later DC Todd Bowles. He has 191 tackles, 53 assists and 10 interceptions in 32 games as starter. The best years of his career so far also came under Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott during the 2011 - 12 seasons. Fired up for the nod of confidence and exuding a maturity rare for his talent set, I expect Coleman to be a pleasant surprise against the jags.
Shaq Thompson:
In the limited exposure we got of him during the pre-season, Shaq Thompson looked like he was ready to begin the long road as heir apparent to an aging Thomas Davis. He's a big man, who plays with an intelligence that will fit in nicely amongst Luke and TD. You really couldn't ask for more as far mentors for the young talent. How much playing time Shaq will see against the Jags is up in the air but expect him to be disruptive from the start when he gets out there.
Around the League:
QB:
Must Start: Aaron Rodgers:
A-Rod is going to score points. It really doesn't matter who is lining up against, the man is built to make touchdowns. That being said, temper expectations for week 1. The loss of Jordy Nelson may be getting the down play in the same tone as last year's infamous 'R-E-L-A-X' statement, but one can not expect it to have zero impact. I expect to see a few untimely drops and a healthy dose of miscommunication from a team that isn't necessarily fast out of the gate, trying to discover their new check down progression. More than likely the Packers focus on the running game behind their epic RB Eddie Lacy. While Rodgers numbers will take a slight dip, I still expect a respectable showing from a guaranteed first round HOFer, so he's a definite starter, just a little less flash than normal.
Second Tier: Mariota/Wintson:
Assuming you didn't land a Phillip Rivers or a Sam Bradford, there's some good news.....Pitting the years two top rookie QBs head to head in the first game of the season has to have the NFL Network drooling with viewership anticipation. The reality is neither of these guys are going to be that great. However, both are out to prove something and neither has a defense worth writing home about. If you landed one of these guys in your draft, it's worth it to trot them out there and see what happens in my opinion. If I had to go with one I'd say Jameis is in the better position with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on tap. Mariota has learn to throw from his back or read the field quicker than it takes Byron Bell to turn around and say 'Run!'
Avoid: Tyrod Taylor:
I'm intrigued by Taylor. He looked great in preseason.........in pre......season. I'm not convinced he has what it takes as a starter and this may be a case of Rex being good old Rex and finding a way to waste a wealth of talent. Maybe he's gonna be great, maybe he's the next Tom Brady.....who knows, but for now I'd wait and see. There's not enough to go on as far as how the Bills plan on using Tyrod to be comfortable with him just yet.
Surprise : Carlson Palmer
Remember the Cardinals? Sure, they lost in epic fashion against a resurgent Panthers team in the first game of the playoffs. Remember the Cardinals before week 10? Everyone that played them does. They were a juggernaut. The Cards got it done, Palmer got it done. It's a new season, relatively little has changed and Mike Brown, Fitzgerald and Ellington are hungry for another taste of success, don't sleep on Palmer, he could surprise you.
WR:
Must Start: Julio Jones:
Who's in a better position to take advantage of their situation than Julio Jones? Like it or not Matty Ice (this is just his name now, I honestly forgot his real name) and the Falcons offense put up points. They have a defense that could double as a colander in a pinch but they put the points up and the main beneficiary of that looks to be Julio. With just shy of 1600 yards in 2014, it looks like he and Matt are on the same page. In a division that won't be putting up much of fight (outside of Carolina, of course) and with the AFC South to contend with, he's fantasy gold at this point.
Second Tier: Steve Smith:
What can you say about Steve Smith he hasn't already said about himself? This is his last stand, his swan song, the coup de gras. We know Smith is motivated by adversity. The 36 year old wants to prove he still has it and if getting ejected from a preseason game then posting pictures of himself in the stands doesn't indicate he still has that same passion, nothing will. Also, Joe Flacco really doesn't have much of a supporting cast outside of Smith at this point. Maybe him and Cam can be pen pals. For what it's worth the Ravens battle the Broncos but you know Steve will just stiff arm the $#!+ out of whoever he lines up against.
Avoid: Torrey Smith:
Reports are that Smith and Kaep are having communication issues. Colin isn't exactly known as the most accurate passer in the league so maybe this week is a bad one to go the former Raven as a quality starter. Give them a couple of weeks to see what shakes out in what is without a doubt the most decimated team in NFL offseason history. The 49ers face the Vikings in week one, so that at least should be a match up that encourages growth between the two players.
Surprise: Amari Cooper:
Maybe not a surprise but anything positive happening in Oakland is kind of surprising. Amari Cooper has an early lead in the Offenwsive Rookie of the Year talks. Granted, no one has even suited up yet but the kid looks hot.
RB:
Must Start: Eddie Lacy
I mentioned that Green Bay is looking for another answer at WR with the loss of Jordy Nelson. Much like Kelvin Benjamin, the depth on the roster has a definite impact when the number 1 goes down. Green Bay will likely be taking a similar approach, with a replacement by committee until a viable option emerges. That being said, Eddie Lacy looks to improve upon his stats thus far in a team that needs the running game to step up during the transition. I've had Lacy as my number 1 for a few months now but this recent turn of events has him solidified as a must start option at RB.
Second Tier: Andre Ellington:
Ellington went for 660 yards in 2014, with 3 TDs. He had a 3.3 YPA average on 201 attempts. With all the injuries that plagued Arizona last year it's a wonder they managed to sneak into the playoffs at all. Andre however managed to average 11.3 points a game, which is 3 points higher than his 2013 number. I don't place him in the elite leagues just yet, but he has the opportunity to make his case this year. IN only his third season I think the diminutive back shows what he's got this year to the tune of at least 10 ppg. Plus his middle name is DeAngelo and that's good enough for me.
Avoid: T.J. Yeldon
Any other week of the season I would recommend starting Jaguars rookie RB TJ Yeldon. He has the the skill set necessary to get playing time, even in his first year. Jags QB Blake Bortles says that TJ has already proven himself to be an effective pass blocker, a normal stumbling block for first years. With that being said, Jacksonville doesn't have a whole lot going on in their backfield, despite their best efforts. TJ is in the right spot to make a splash, and call it a gut feeling but I think he will, just not against the Panthers, who have the potential to shut the running game down completely.
Surprise: DeAngelo Williams:
Maybe a surprise, maybe not. Depends on who you ask really. I think D-Will makes a difference in the season opener against the Pats. With Bell out on suspension, Pittsburgh needed a back with experience who could get the job the done immediately. In preseason Williams showed he's still got something left in the tank and probably a lot to prove. He may never be a home run hitter, but with Pitts O-Line, there's just enough there to see Williams pulling in fantasy points reminiscent of his younger years, at least for a couple of weeks.
TE:
Must Start: Rob Gronkowski:
Gronk smash, it's what Gronk do. Also Pittsburgh has secondary issues so far this year. With all the hooplah that has surrounded this team I expect Bellicheat...er.....The Patriots, to do what needs to be done. That means hitting familiar targets and returning to business as usual. 1100 yards and 12 TDs in 2014 is enough to convince me Gronk is the #1 TE in the league, stats wise, right now.
Second Tier: Travis Kelce:
Houston was 21st against the pass last year, while Kansas City was 24th in passing offense. So, it's a wash. What I do see is a lot of dump off passes to pro-bowl TE Travis Kelce who continues his role in KC. With 862 total yards and 5 TDs in 2014, Kelce ranks just behind Greg Olsen stat wise with ~20 fewer receptions. With next to nothing worth talking about outside of Maclin at receiver, Kelce will have to emulate Olsen as Alex Smith's favorite target this season.
Avoid: Jimmy Graham:
We all know the Jimmy Graham that catches balls even Cam can't overthrow. The one who dunks on goal posts and makes DBs cry like 12 years olds with a skinned knee but, this isn't that Jimmy anymore. The skill set isn't going anywhere but outside of the offense that was designed for him, reduced to a blocking first role, I expect Jimmy to get respectable stats but not anything close to what we've seen in the past. St. Louis can't offer much more than Ogletree to challenge Graham but with more than enough offensive options at their disposal right now, I'd stash Jimmy until his role becomes clear.
Surprise: Eric Ebron:
Eric has panned as borderline bust. He didn't show out in his rookie year and went undrafted in many leagues. He also spent most of the preseason on the sidelines, so why pick him up? For one, Ebron came in as the 10th overall pick with very high expectations, he was thrust into a multi-faceted role playing TE, HB and Receiver. Second the maturity on this kid has gone way up in just one offseason. It's like a reality check for a guy who wasn't used to having to be more. With a healthy Lions team and a few acquisitions that should bolster the offense, Ebron can focus on putting his foot forward in his second year. I'm not expecting a breakout season, but I do foresee a player who understands his role better and is taking that seriously, making huge leap from the dismal numbers he posted last season.