I'm going to preface this article by saying this: I am not suggesting that people wanting a deal sooner than later are stupid. There's plenty of reasons why it would benefit both sides to get a deal done as soon as possible. For one, it helps the Panthers in planning for the future as far as contracts and free agents are concerned. It also sends a message to the general public that Cam Newton is indeed the franchise quarterback and future of the team.
Working out a deal now would also benefit Cam, in that he doesn't necessarily have to worry about how this year's play will impact his deal. It also would provide a little insurance for a guy who spent last season battling injuries all year. What if he hurts his ankle again? What if he is struck by a bus? The rash of bad luck that followed Cam in 2014 would be a lot less stressful if he knew that, god forbid something happened and he could never play again, that he had a partially-to-near-fully guaranteed payout and his family is still covered for a long time.
This all being said, there are many reasons why the deal hasn't taken place yet, and there's nothing wrong with waiting it out for a bit longer.
Timeline/Negotiations
When somebody says "Cam Newton is on the last year of his contract", I don't think everybody (except our CSR community) understands exactly HOW LONG that is. The Panthers have from now until free agency NEXT YEAR to sign Cam Newton, which equals out to roughly 10 months to get a deal done. If for some reason the sides have not come to a deal, the team can slap the franchise tag on Cam Newton and let him play in 2016 on that until a deal is reached. The Panthers would likely use the "exclusive rights" franchise tag on Cam, so he cannot negotiate with other teams for the entire year. For those who need a refresher, per Wikipedia:
The National Football League introduced the franchise tag in 1993.[1] There are two types of franchise tag designations: the exclusive rights franchise tag, and non-exclusive rights franchise tag:
- An "exclusive" franchise player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player's position as of a date in April of the current year in which the tag will apply, or 120 percent of the player's previous year's salary, whichever is greater. Exclusive franchise players cannot negotiate with other teams. The player's team has all the negotiating rights to the exclusive player.
- A "non-exclusive" franchise player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five salaries at the player's position for the previous year, or 120 percent of the player's previous year's salary, whichever is greater. A non-exclusive franchise player may negotiate with other NFL teams, but if the player signs an offer sheet from another team, the original team has a right to match the terms of that offer, or if it does not match the offer and thus loses the player, is entitled to receive two first-round draft picks as compensation.
This would give the Panthers an additional year to hammer out a contract, and in this scenario the quarterback market would likely be more clear. It has been reported by many outlets that Cam is willing to wait until the quarterback market resets after Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson get their contracts. And to be blunt, why wouldn't he? He joins a small group of quarterbacks that are considered franchise players. There's definitely plenty of reasons to wait and see what his peers are getting for their contracts. Obviously, the Panthers will have some leverage as Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have enjoyed more success in the win/loss department. But if the team really feels he is a franchise quarterback, he deserves a comparable contract to the other young guys out there.
The "Contract Year"
If I'm Dave Gettleman, this is what I have laid out at the negotiating table. Despite many individual accolades in his rookie season, and unique statistical accolades for a dual threat quarterback, there's plenty of knocks compared to his peers.
- In four seasons, Cam has only lead the team to one winning season. Excuses such as injury and talent are not unjustified, but when it comes to business results are the biggest key for higher contract numbers.
- Cam has just one playoff win in two postseason trips. And one could argue at the negotiating table that any other year Cam's production and winning percentage would not have been enough to make the playoffs lin 2014. Cam's 5 wins as a starter that year definitely would not have done it, though we all can surmise that he would have beaten the Bucs in 2014 both times.
- Statistically Cam Newton's worst year was this last one. He passed for career lows in yards, touchdowns, and QB Rating. Obviously there's the argument that he missed games here, but he only had 25 less pass attempts in 2014 compared to 2015, where he threw 23 TDs and 13 INTs compared to 18 TDs and 12 INTs in 2014. Newton will always bring the second element as a rusher, but as a passer he didn't show marked improvement in 2014.
If I'm Cam Newton, I am betting on myself and taking on 2015 as my contract year. He is fully healthy, his team is coming into it's first year without heavy turnover on both sides of the ball, and has improved depth and starters in just about every facet. This year could be Cam's best season yet with improved weapons, an improved (though still questionable) offensive line, a good defense that has only been built upon, and a special teams unit that has been heavily upgraded. If Cam can bring the Panthers at least another playoff berth, the argument can be made that Cam has consistently brought the team a playoff berth in three consecutive years. A third division crown would only further this argument. Cam doesn't have to win the Super Bowl this year to garner a large contract. If he can continue his solid play (when healthy) it will only make his contract better. Obviously in this scenario it does not behoove the organization to wait and see, but if Cam is betting on himself in 2015, a deal's not going to get done until after the fact. And that's okay, the end goal is for him to get the contract he warrants and deserves with his play.
Why Cam will still be a Panther
There's no evidence showing Cam is even considering another team right now. The situation for Cam has been getting better since he started here, heck it might even be his best situation on paper pre-season yet. Sure, the offensive line could use improvement, but let's look at exactly how things shook down for Cam since being drafted by year:
- In his first year, Cam enjoyed one of the best performances by any rookie at ANY position, shattering records for debut statistics, rookie statistics, and even all time quarterback statistics. What Cam did not enjoy however, was a brand new head coach with no semblance of a defense. Injuries aside, the defense was completely ineffective and Cam had to play near perfect football for the team to win, lest we forget the infamous "Cam is 0-*some number* when he throws one or more interception". That strain was simply too much for a rookie, leading to a 6-10 season.
- The team still stank under the management of Marty Hurney, though before he left he brought us a transcendent talent in Luke Kuechly. The team played rough in the beginning, being statistically eliminated from the playoffs early. A strong finish lead to Ron Rivera keeping his job, and the defense rallied around Luke Kuechly. The team still had holes on the offensive line, needed some complimentary talent to Steve Smith, lacked interior defensive lineman, and really any talent in the secondary.
- Dave Gettleman took over and brought in lots of low cost veteran free agents to replace "potential" contributors while resigning a few key contributors from the years before. Unfortunately, due to the cap strapped nature of the team, he couldn't bring in any long term investments. Still, with a rag tag group of mercenaries in the secondary, a strong draft bringing in two home run picks at defensive tackle gave Cam Newton one heck of a defense at his back. Ted Ginn and others on offense helped alleviate the pressure on Cam Newton and Steve Smith, leading to a 12-4 season, Cam Newton's best, even with many different starters from the years before. The team unfortunately was bandaided up with stopgap talent, and fell in the playoffs to a much stronger top-to-bottom team in the 49ers.
- Gettleman had to let just about every strong contributor go for higher contracts due to more cap stress. He also let go of the teams best offensive weapon in Steve Smith, while a slew of offensive lineman retired. This time he wasn't so lucky surrounding Cam with low cost talent. Coming off offseason ankle surgery, the team started strong before having personnel weaknesses exploited by opposing teams. A truly bad offensive line nearly got Cam Newton killed, and a string of losses made the season seem lost. The team put it all together by fielding young, promising talent from an outstanding draft class and managed to win just enough games to make the playoffs and bring Cam his first postseason win.
If you look at the timeline, Cam has enjoyed his greatest regular season success (17 wins, 12 losses, 1 tie) under Dave Gettleman. During these periods, the roster turnover was also at it's greatest. For the 1st time in 2015, nearly every starter on each side of the ball (to end the season) is still with the team. The guys who won't start from last year were mostly replaced by upgrades in the draft or free agency, this time higher level talent on longer contracts. This year there will actually be some semblance of continuity from the previous roster on both sides of the ball. And every first round pick since Cam's drafting has been an absolute slam dunk, though that remains to be seen this year. Still, Gettleman got Cam another weapon in the draft, extended one of his best weapons in Greg Olsen, and built on the defense and running games that have complimented Cam throughout his career. This team is slowly building up to be deeper, and more consistent. They even brought back a guy in Ted Ginn who has outstanding rapport with Cam. If you know anything about quarterbacks, or teams in general, you know that it's easier and often more rewarding to have the same talents working together for as long as possible.
Let's say hypothetically one of these pipe dream articles comes to fruition and Cam actually is allowed to walk. For the sake of this exercise I'm going to assume the Panthers put the non-exclusive rights tender on Cam for the 2016 year, because they'd be crazy not to. Let's say a team such as the Cardinals forks over two first round picks to the Panthers for such a trade. Cam will likely enjoy success in that first season, sure. But then comes the dearth of young talent for two years, and that team will have to nail it in the later rounds to build a more talented roster. In those two years, the proven commodities like Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Ellison, and all the talented defenders like Tyrann Matthieu will come looking for more money. That becomes a problem, and holes start to pop up that way.
I am not saying that Cam leaving is a surefire way to stunt his career, but why leave a team he is comfortable with? Why leave a team that has very recently brought in solid foundation players to build off of? Why leave when the roster is finally becoming deep in positions that were about as deep as a kiddie pool a few years back?
He loves the Panthers, he loves being a Panther, he loves Charlotte. He's the biggest reason why media actually pays attention to Carolina. He wants to win, but he is a loyal leader who has not shown us as fans any reason why he won't cooperate in a fair negotiation. The front office, and the fans, simply need to wait until Cam is ready to sign on the dotted line, and both sides will be ready when the time comes. If he doesn't sign, that's on the front office for low balling him, and considering the fact that Dave Gettleman franchise tagged a defensive end, I see no way he lets a guy he has publicly acknowledged as a franchise quarterback walk over money that the team should be able to afford. Cam is the most important player on offense, and a leader of this team.
Let's take a deep breath. Cam isn't taking his talents to South Beach any time soon.