Well last week sure was ugly. If you take Steve Smith's word, this week will be too. This inter-conference match up between the Panthers and Ravens is dominated by the story of the greatest Panther of all time facing off against the team he did so much for during his thirteen years with the organization.
But there's more to talk about in this game then the Smitty story line. This Panthers defense is coming off a very concerning performance in their last game, and now they face a team that blew out the team that just blew out the Panthers. Looking at it from such a simple perspective may make it seem like the Panthers have little chance, but we all know that's not how this game works. Let's break it down piece by piece to see how the Panthers stack up against the Ravens offense come Sunday afternoon.
Panthers Defensive Line vs. Ravens Offensive Line
Last week's performance against the Steelers might have been the worst we've seen from this front four in the last two seasons. Big Ben was able to get his throws off relatively unmolested, in part due to scheme and in part due to the defensive line's inability to make consistent pressure. Holes were plentiful in the run game, and Steelers backs often had multiple gaps to choose from to pick up chunks of yardage. It's a sight Panthers fans haven't seen much since back in the days of Sione Fua and Terrell McClain.
Things won't get any easier this weekend, as the Ravens trot out an offensive line that has played pretty well this season. Quarterback Joe Flacco has only been sacked three times in three games, and Baltimore backs are averaging 5.17 yards per carry. If there has been anyone struggling on the line, it's been starting left tackle Eugene Monroe. However, Monroe will not play on Sunday as he recovers from knee surgery. Into his place steps undrafted rookie James Hurst. Hurst isn't your typical undrafted rookie though. The UNC product had a decorated college career and was widely seen as a day two prospect before breaking his leg in his final college game. Regardless, he's still a rookie seeing his first NFL action. A talented rotation of DEs should give the rookie fits. Whoever is lined up as the right defensive end needs to take advantage of the match up, as the rest of Baltimore's line matches up well with the rest of the Panthers front four.
Panthers Rushing Defense vs. Ravens Rushing Offense
As mentioned in the preview of the trenches, the Ravens have run the ball well thus far. Aside from Bernard Pierce's struggles in week 1, no Baltimore back has finished a game averaging fewer than 4.4 yards per carry. Justin Forsett has been an electrifying #2 back, averaging over 6 yards per carry and having more than a third of his runs go for a first down. It doesn't end there though. Third string back Lorenzo Taliaferro filled in for an injured Pierce last week and churned out 91 yards and touchdown on 18 carries. Taliaferro and Pierce fit the typical workhorse mold, while Forsett is the prototypical change of pace back, complete with receiving ability.
It goes without saying. The Panthers will have to play better against the run than they did last week. Too often the front four were pushed off their spots and linebackers were found picking the wrong gap. Luke Kuechly was out of position more frequently than we're used to seeing and Thomas Davis was virtually invisible for much of the night, which may have been a result of his injury. The Panthers as a team missed nine tackles against the Steelers, including four from safety Thomas DeCoud according to Pro Football Focus. That's an uncharacteristically high number for this team, and it's going to need to be drastically reduced if we expect to see the Panthers rush defense we've come to know.
Panthers Passing Defense vs. Ravens Passing Offense
This is the part of the game that all eyes will be glued to. This is where the blood and guts are supposed to fly. Steve Smith dons a Ravens jersey and plays against the team he called his own for so long. The 14th year receiver has taken over as the top dog in Baltimore when many in Carolina (including myself) thought he was well into the downside of his career. Smith has been targeted 31 times already and has recorded at least 71 yards receiving in every game so far after failing to hit the 70 yard mark in any game in 2013. Now, as if he needed any more motivation, he faces the team that let him go, and his quotes during week 1's game show that he's got something to prove.
But Steve Smith isn't all there is to talk about in the Ravens passing game...or maybe he is. The Ravens second receiving threat this year was Dennis Pitta, but now he's out for the year after dislocating his hip again. His shoes will be filled by Owen Daniels, who had a surprising two touchdown performance in week 2 but hasn't done much apart from that. The other Smith playing WR, Torrey, has been completely MIA this season, though he's not one to be slept on. He's a deep threat and is liable to get behind the defense, which allows Flacco to show off one of the strongest arms in the NFL. As a whole, it's a similar look to what the Panthers faced against the Steelers last week. Neither of the top two WRs are physically imposing in terms of stature, but both can make noise on the deep ball and after the catch. They are supported by a veteran TE and a capable pass catcher out of the backfield.
The Panthers are going to need to get to quarterback Joe Flacco quick to have success, and they'll need support from the secondary. Almost 75% of Flacco's passes have flown less than 10 yards in the air. Beyond that range, the QB has had quite the struggle. He has completed only 8 of 31 passes thrown more than 10 yards in the air, so the secondary should look to contain the short stuff first. If they can do that and tackle more reliably than last week, they can make it out okay.
Overall Outlook
The Panthers will surely be motivated coming off such a dismal performance on the national stage. Unfortunately, the job gets no easier with a strong Ravens team playing host. The Panthers need a much better performance from the defensive line going up against a strong opposing unit. They should look to take advantage of the newly promoted rookie LT to gain the edge in the trenches. Baltimore's stable of backs is not quite as good as Pittsburgh's, but it's nothing to scoff at, and the threats on the outside are comparable in talent to those of the Steelers as well. All in all, there's a chance this week could be a repeat of last week if the Panthers don't make some drastic changes.