Cam had his fifth year player option picked up this offseason, meaning he will be a Panther through at least the 2015 season. After that we all know he is going to get paid the only question is, when and how much? With Charles Johnson restructuring his contract and a certain defensive end potentially nearing his end in Charlotte, it may be sooner rather than later. Below we compare several quarterbacks to get a feel of just how much Cam Newton should and will be making.
For reference, below are the salary figures for the three highest paid quarterbacks in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco.
Player |
Contract Length |
Contract Salary |
Guaranteed Money |
Earnings this Season |
Aaron Rodgers |
5 years |
$110,000,000 |
$54,000,000 |
$17,550,000 |
Matt Ryan |
5 Years |
$103,750,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$14,800,000 |
Joe Flacco |
6 Years |
$120,600,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
And for comparison, we will use Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick as they were both taken in the 2011 draft along with Cam and well, obviously we're going to compare Cam and Kaepernick.
Player |
Contract Length |
Salary |
Guaranteed Money |
Earnings this Season |
Andy Dalton |
6 Years |
$96,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$9,059,063 |
Colin Kaepernick |
6 Years |
$114,000,000 |
$61,000,000 |
$3,767,444 |
Contract Averages:
Contract Length |
Salary |
Guaranteed Money |
Earnings this Season |
5.6 |
108,870,000 |
40,600,000 |
13,035,301 |
My goal here is not to bore you by explaining all the intricacies of NFL contracts but to compare these figures and see how they correlate to direct, on-field production. Basically, what results are these teams getting for their money.
Let's begin with the passing comparison outlined in chart A:
A)
Pass Yards/G |
Yards per Attempt |
Completion % |
4thQ Comebacks |
TD/INT % |
QBR |
|
Aaron Rodgers* |
268 |
7.78 |
66.60% |
3 |
4.9 |
74.7 |
Matt Ryan |
282 |
6.94 |
67.40% |
1 |
1.5 |
61.1 |
Joe Flacco |
245 |
6.37 |
59.00% |
4 |
0.9 |
46.7 |
Andy Dalton |
268 |
7.33 |
61.9 |
3 |
1.7 |
55.8 |
Colin Kaepernick |
200 |
7.69 |
58.40% |
4 |
2.6 |
68.6 |
AVERGES |
253 |
7.22 |
62.70% |
3 |
2.3 |
61.4 |
Cam Newton |
211 |
7.14 |
61.70% |
4 |
1.8 |
56.2 |
*Statistics compiled for Aaron Rogers are from his last full season, 2012.
As reflected in the chart above you can see Cam is slightly below average in each category with the exception being fourth quarter comebacks and touchdown to interception ratio. This seems somewhat odd since the national media believes only Andrew Luck can orchestrate such comebacks, but let's save that another day.
In chart B let's take a look at what makes Cam the dynamic player he is, scrambling ability.
B)
Attempts |
Yards |
First Down % |
TD |
Fumbles |
|
Aaron Rodgers* |
54 |
259 |
33% |
2 |
5 |
Matt Ryan |
17 |
55 |
29% |
0 |
5 |
Joe Flacco |
27 |
131 |
33% |
1 |
8 |
Andy Dalton |
61 |
183 |
25% |
2 |
4 |
Colin Kaepernick |
92 |
524 |
30% |
4 |
6 |
AVERGES |
50 |
230.4 |
30% |
1.8 |
5.6 |
Cam Newton |
111 |
585 |
41% |
6 |
3 |
*Statistics compiled for Aaron Rogers are from his last full season, 2012.
This clearly illustrates just how valuable Cam is rushing the football, either from unplanned scrambles or read option play calls. He is the NFL's premier rushing quarterback.
With the league evolving into a passing driven league more and more every year, passing statistics, as they should, carry more weight here. To reflect that importance, a ratio of 63/35 has been placed between the passing and rushing statistics, respectfully. All passing categories are broken down to equal 65% with a higher percentage placed on more significant statistics. The same rings true for the 35% placed on rushing.
Several websites and articles were researched to determine what the most important quarterback statistics are and how they should be tiered. Obviously there will be some varying opinions, but until it is proven that stat A is more important than stat B this is how I have evaluated the statistics.
C)
Statistics Ratio Breakdown |
Passing: 65%
Pass Yards/G |
Yards per Attempt |
Completion % |
4thQ Comebacks |
TD/INT % |
QBR |
10% |
15% |
5% |
7% |
10% |
18% |
Rushing: 35%
Attempts |
Yards |
First Down % |
Touchdowns |
Fumbles* |
8% |
6% |
10% |
4% |
7% |
*Fumble totals will be subtracted
The numbers for each quarterback in charts A and B were multiplied by the percentages in chart C to determine the players Predicted Salary Number, or PSN. Adding those numbers together will yield the final Adjusted Predicted Salary Number, or APSN. For an example, please see how these figures were calculated for Matt Ryan.
Pass Yards/G: 282*0.10 = 28.2 Yards per Attempt: 6.94*0.15 = 1.0 Completion %: 67.40*.05 = 3.4 4th Quarter Comebacks: 1*0.07 = 0.1 TD/INT ratio: 1.5*0.10 = 0.2 QBR: 61.1*0.18 = 11 Total: 43.9 |
Rushing Attempts: 17*.08 = 1.4 Yards: 55*0.06 = 3.3 First Down %: 29*.10 = 2.9 Touchdowns: 0 Fumbles: 5*0.07 = 0.4 (subtract) Total: 7.2
|
All numbers are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Passing:
Player: |
Rodgers |
Ryan |
Flacco |
Dalton |
Kaepernick |
Newton |
PSN: |
45.5 |
43.9 |
39 |
43.8 |
37 |
35.8 |
Rushing:
Player: |
Rodgers |
Ryan |
Flacco |
Dalton |
Kaepernick |
Newton |
PSN: |
22.8 |
7.2 |
13.2 |
18.1 |
41.6 |
48.1 |
Total:
Player: |
Rodgers |
Ryan |
Flacco |
Dalton |
Kaepernick |
Newton |
APSN: |
68.3 |
51.1 |
52.2 |
61.9 |
78.6 |
83.9 |
Obviously these numbers don't account for many statistics, the most important being wins and losses, but I believe that has more to do with a football team and not an individual player.
Overall, when comparing quarterbacks based on their dual threat ability, Cam convincingly wins the battle. As he continues to mature and get older his game will revolve less around his running ability and more around his strong arm and decision making. Couple that with his growing leadership and you have the potential for a very pricey contract.
On to what you've been waiting for. To determine Cam's worth we will divide each player's scaled down salary to their corresponding APSN to reach an average.
Salary:
- Rodgers: 110,000/68.30 = $1,610.6
- Ryan: 103,750/51.10 = $2,030.3
- Flacco: 120,600/52.20 = $2,310.4
- Dalton: 96,000/61.90 = $1,550.9
- Kaepernick: 114,000/78.60 = $1,450.4
- Average: 8,952.6/5 = $1,790.5
Guaranteed Money:
- Rodgers: 54,000/68.30 = 790.6
- Ryan: 42,000/51.10 = 821.9
- Flacco: 29,000/52.20 = 555.6
- Dalton: 17,000/61.90 = 274.6
- Kaepernick: 61,000/78.60 = 776.1
- Average: $3,218.8/5 = $643.8
This average is somewhat skewed since Flacco is severely overpaid compared to his APSN but nonetheless, let's see where we ended up.
Cam Newton's Predicted Salary:
150,250/83.9 = 1,790.8
54,000/83.9 = 643.6
6 years, $150,250,000, $54,000,000 guaranteed
So what do you think, is this number too high, too low? If you were Jerry Richardson, what would you pay Cam to stay in the Queen City?