Carolina's Friday night game against the New England Patriots will mark their second consecutive match-up with a team coming off a 40+ point performance the week prior. As such, the Panthers defense will have their hands full. The Patriots put a well balanced offense on the field; a passing attack led by Tom Brady is backed up a strong group of RBs, all behind an experienced and very strong offensive line.
As alluded to above, the Patriots put 42 points on the board against the Eagles last week, a stark contrast from the 6 points they scored in their opener against the Redskins. Based on what we've seen of Bill Belichick's team over the past decade or so, we can expect the former to be closer to the norm. The Patriots finished the 2013 season 7th in total offense and 3rd in points while demonstrating the offensive balance mentioned earlier, finishing top 10 in both rush and pass offense.
The Panthers defense is coming off a rather strong performance of their own. Despite allowing the Chiefs to move the ball relatively easily at times, the Panthers defense bowed up when it mattered, keeping the Chiefs out of the endzone for much of the night. The first team defense for their part allowed only 6 points in about one half of action. The front line was able to generate significant pressure on the Chiefs QBs, forcing quick throws and generating a few sacks. The Panthers front seven will need to experience similar success to slow down the Patriots Friday night.
Before looking at the individual phases, it'd be wise to note that the battle in the trenches will set the tone for the night while the Patriots have the ball. Yes, this could be said for most any game, but this match-up is particularly intriguing. The Panthers sport one of the best defensive lines in football while their counterparts boast one of the best offensive lines in football. If one line can gain an edge over the other, it will go a long way in determining the success the Patriots will have putting points on the board.
Panthers Rushing Defense vs. Patriots Rushing Offense
The Chiefs had more success running the football than Ron Rivera and his staff would have liked to see last week. Led mostly by Cyrus Gray, the Chiefs were able to accrue 105 yards on 23 carries, a 4.6 yards per carry average; an average that is much too high for such a strong run defense. Greg Hardy and the rest of the front seven will look to regain their 2013 form in their last significant test before the regular season. The Patriots ground game will be a good final tune up for them.
The Patriots struggles mightily on the ground in their preseason opener, averaging a measly 2.6 yards per carry against a Redskins team not known for their defense. That changed dramatically last week. Against the Eagles, the Patriots ran for 250 yards on 46 carries. That's a lot of carries, and that's a lot of yards. Presumed starter Stevan Ridley toted the rock 9 times for 45 yards. His backup, Brandon Bolden, fared equally well on limited touches, gaining 21 yards on just 3 carries. In fact, the only Patriots back to not average at least 5 yards per carry was James White, who likely won't make the roster anyway. The Patriots were led in rushing by first year RB Jonas Gray. The former Notre Dame back picked up 98 yards on just 12 carries (not including a 20 yard touchdown run nullified by a penalty), consistently picking up chunks of yardage largely on outside and off tackle runs.
If the Panthers expect to stop the Patriots on the ground, they need to bring their A+ tackling game all over the field. If last week proves to not be a fluke, Gray provides an excellent complement to the inside running of incumbents Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden. Since the battle in on the front lines may turn out to be a wash, it is imperative the Kuechly, Davis, and the rest of the back seven are reliable in limiting the Patriots deep corps of backs.
Panthers Passing Defense vs. Patriots Passing Offense
The Patriots have Tom Brady. Tom Brady is one of the best QBs to ever play the game. Because of that alone, the Patriots aerial attack is nothing to be taken lightly. That said, it's not as intimidating as it has been in years past. Superstar TE Rob Gronkowski is still recovering from a knee injury and won't be in the lineup on Friday night. Behind him at the TE position is next to nothing of note. Backups Michael Hoomanawanui and D.J. Williams are out nursing injuries. Former Panther Ben Hartsock is there, but he's not much of a threat in the passing game. All in all, the TE position isn't much of a threat without Gronkowski.
So we move from the TE position and to the WR position. The Patriots WR corps, while rather deep, is mostly underwhelming. It's a group consisting mainly of possession receivers and lacking any real significant deep threat. Another familiar face resides in this unit in former Panthers WR Brandon LaFell. The LSU product spent 4 years in Carolina before signing with New England this past offseason, and now finds himself currently listed as the 5th/6th WR on the depth chart. The key for the Panthers secondary in stopping the opposing WRs will be limiting YAC and staying disciplined in coverage.
The most dangerous threat in the Patriots passing attack sans Gronk might be coming out of the backfield. RB Shane Vereen plays a Darren Sproles-like role for the Patriots. In just 8 games last year, the Cal product hauled in 47 passes for 427 yards, including an 8 catch 65 yard performance against this Carolina team. He provides a reliable check down option for Brady and is a perfect fit as a change of pace back for his team.
In general, the Patriots passing offense is predicated on quick, short routes and picking up YAC, be it from the WR position or Vereen coming out of the backfield. While the names of his targets may not instill fear in any opponents, it's still Tom Brady distributing the ball. For the Panthers to have success against Brady and his crew, they'll need to force the Patriots QB off his spots. If Brady is allowed to sit in the pocket for any amount of time, he'll pick apart even the best defenses. Pressure him though, and he becomes a different player. It'll be on the Panthers front four to get the better of the Patriots offensive line to make life easier for the secondary.
Overall Outlook
It's a battle of strength vs. strength and relative weakness vs. relative weakness. The Patriots strengths on offense are their signal caller and their front line. Likewise, the Panthers defense is set up similarly with Luke Kuechly and the line in front of him. The Patriots have lackluster threats on the outside, and that is mirrored by a questionable Carolina secondary. The key for Carolina will be getting significant push up front against a strong Patriots line. A protected Tom Brady and solid openings for a strong group of backs is a recipe for disaster for any defense facing this New England team, especially with a suspect secondary. But if the defensive line can do their job, the rest of the defense should be able to hold up fine.