Fantasy Football.
It's amazing how wildly popular the game of Fantasy Football has become. For millions of people, the start of the NFL season not only starts their favorite sport, but it also starts their favorite hobby as well.
When I first started playing fantasy football there were no online sites for drafting and hosting leagues. The owners of the 8 teams in my first league met at a local bar for the draft, and we met every Tuesday, each with a local newspaper, to calculate player scores and determine weekly winners. Now, there are myriad fantasy football league hosting sites, and literally thousands and thousands of websites dedicated strictly to fantasy football advice.
We are rapidly approaching "Prime Time" for fantasy football fanatics; the 3rd Preseason Game of the year. The vast majority of "real" leagues hold fantasy drafts after the 3rd preseason game because the proposed starters get the majority of the work in that game, and the lineup and usage are good indicators of final rosters and how utilized players will be during the year.
With that in mind, let's take a look at how our favorite players from the Carolina Panthers are being drafted leading up to the time serious leagues and money leagues are about to really get underway.
Rank = Positional Ranking of the Website
Points = Projected Season Fantasy Points
Dev. = Fantasy Points behind #1 Positional Scorer
ADP = Average Draft Position
% Owned = Percentage of Leagues player is on an active roster
Change = Change in % Owned
Cam Newton - QB
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
5 |
289 |
-79 |
37.7 |
100 |
0.0 |
Yahoo |
6 |
356 |
-108 |
50.7 |
99 |
-0.1 |
CBS |
13 |
322 |
-128 |
84.4 |
96.8 |
4.0 |
NFL |
8 |
308 |
-42 |
51.1 |
99.8 |
0.0 |
Cam provides good value at the end of the 5th round. He will be among the leaders in the 2nd tier of fantasy quarterbacks behind Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, and has the upside to warrant a 5th round pick.
DeAngelo Williams - RB
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
35 |
122 |
-127 |
100.3 |
100 |
0.0 |
Yahoo |
43 |
93 |
-164 |
123.0 |
39.0 |
-2.0 |
CBS |
37 |
110 |
-146 |
112.0 |
91.0 |
-6.0 |
NFL |
34 |
139 |
-113 |
117.3 |
95.6 |
- |
Jonathon Stewart - RB
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
62 |
57 |
-192 |
139.5 |
20.4 |
10.6 |
Yahoo |
54 |
81 |
-168 |
UND |
? |
? |
CBS |
65 |
53 |
-196 |
160.1 |
28 |
12.5 |
NFL |
54 |
101 |
-152 |
150.2 |
4 |
1 |
Mike Tolbert - RB
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
50 |
73 |
-176 |
170.1 |
4.6 |
-.3 |
Yahoo |
62 |
64 |
-185 |
UND |
3.0 |
- |
CBS |
63 |
55 |
-194 |
182.7 |
5.2 |
- |
NFL |
62 |
80 |
-173 |
150.1 |
2.1 |
-.2 |
The fantasy community as a whole seems to be in tune with the 3-headed monster that is the Panthers backfield. Stewart got a big boost from the two touchdowns in the last game, and if he continues and wins the starting job and the goal line duties, he's the biggest value going at any position right now.
Kelvin Benjamin - WR
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
67 |
89 |
-147 |
127.8 |
42.9 |
11.6 |
Yahoo |
41 |
116 |
-91 |
125.3 |
58 |
- |
CBS |
39 |
113 |
-111 |
119.5 |
84.4 |
12.2 |
NFL |
60 |
110 |
-137 |
144.3 |
27.1 |
5.4 |
Jerricho Cotchery - WR
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
66 |
87 |
-149 |
UND |
5.8 |
-.3 |
Yahoo |
? |
? |
? |
125.8 |
4 |
- |
CBS |
66 |
80 |
-144 |
167.6 |
? |
? |
NFL |
64 |
106.5 |
-140.5 |
150.2 |
4.6 |
-.2 |
Benjamin is gaining momentum with every catch. If Cam had connected on the overthrow on the Go route, his ADP would likely have dropped even farther. He'll be sneaking into the 10th round conversation if he has a big game in Game 3.
Greg Olsen - TE
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
7 |
114 |
-75 |
85.3 |
100 |
0.0 |
Yahoo |
9 |
121 |
-63 |
61.6 |
100 |
0.0 |
CBS |
11 |
103 |
-91 |
83.6 |
97.4 |
0.4 |
NFL |
9 |
125 |
-67 |
69.7 |
99.4 |
-0.2 |
Olsen is going in the middle rounds right around the same time as the third tier TE's like Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta and Kyle Rudolph. A lot of people are banking on the Norv Turner magic for Rudolph, but I'd rather take a more proven commodity at his current ADP.
Carolina Panthers - D/ST
Rank |
Points |
Dev. |
ADP |
% Owned |
Change |
|
ESPN |
2 |
192 |
-11 |
76.2 |
100 |
0.0 |
Yahoo |
2 |
165 |
-9 |
75,2 |
99.0 |
- |
CBS |
3 |
186.5 |
-13.5 |
106.6 |
93.8 |
-1.8 |
NFL |
3 |
184 |
-25 |
68.26 |
99.2 |
0.0 |
The Carolina Defense is fearsome. As fans we all know about the front 7 and the secondary has looked improved on last year's lineup so far as well. But the next group of D/ST's after Seattle, Carolina and SF are all going at least 3.1 rounds later and are projected to only have a 1.2 - 1.6 point per game drop off. The 7th and 8th rounds are high prices to pay for a team defense.
As you can see, pre-draft rankings have a lot to do with ADP. Where a player is listed in the Player Rankings and Positional Rankings influences drafters. Die hard players formulate their own draft boards, and are not swayed as much by rankings as the casual player, but this gives an indication of when you need to be targeting your favorite players.
If you are planning to play in a CSR league, or you are in a league with friends who are also Carolina Panther fans, rampant homerism will drive each Panther player's ADP down at least a round, and more likely 2 rounds, so keep this in mind.
So CSR, do you think the fantasy community has the Panther's players valued correctly? Who's being overvalued? Who's being undervalued? Let's here what you have to say.
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