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Question 1: FO is predicting a four win drop for the Panthers in 2014 though on paper it appears the strength of the team on both sides of the ball remains intact. Suppose the mediocre WRs and CBs hired to replace the mediocre ones that left play well? Wouldn't that be enough to surpass 8 wins given the defense and running game remain strong? Worded differently, what else will the Panthers need to do right in 2014 to repeat the 12-4?
FO: This is kind of what I tried to get at in the text of the chapter. Though our numbers say that this much turnover at wide receiver and defensive back usually means a decline, there are reasons to believe this particular team can buck those trends. Honestly, if I were Carolina, I'd be more concerned with the offensive line than anything else.
To answer your second question, for the Panthers to win 12 games again, Kelvin Benjamin must prove himself a dangerous enough threat to stretch defenses and dictate coverage; DeAngelo Williams must hold off Father Time for one more season, or Jonathan Stewart must finally stay healthy, or both; the secondary must limit big plays, forcing opponents to march the length of the field and giving the front seven a chance to force sacks and turnovers; and most importantly, the offensive line must keep Cam Newton healthy and effective for the entire season.
I feel better about the team after the win over the Chiefs though I realize its foolish to bank on preseason results.
Question 2: Regarding the inability of the Panther offense to complete the deep pass in 2013 you seem to rule out the play calling pretty quickly and blame the receivers, the same receivers that performed much better in 2012. Couldn't a more plausible explanation be that Newton was instructed to be more careful with the ball in order to reduce the INTs (which he did)? He did throw downfield much less in 2013 as compared to 2012, thereby avoiding more INTs.
FO: I'm really confused right now. You're right that Newton threw deep passes less frequently last year than he did the year before (24 percent of his passes were deep balls in 2012, 20 percent in 2013). So yes, he was throwing short more often. But his interceptions didn't go down last season, they went up, from 12 to 13. And his Adjusted INTs (which accounts for things like dropped interceptions) went up from 15 to 18. So if the idea was to sacrifice the deep ball entirely to cut down on turnovers, well, it didn't work.
More to the point, no team can expect to win consistently with the league's most impotent deep-ball attack, as the Panthers did last season. The Panthers' average touchdown drive last season went 8.4 plays. No other team took so many plays to reach the end zone. The next three highest teams were the Jets, Washington, and Titans. This is not a recipe for offensive success.
I muffed the question a bit but I think he still answered my question. The Panthers must be able to throw the ball down the field more in 2014. With Kelvin Benjamin they will look to do just that.
Question 3: What kind of numbers are you projecting for Kelvin Benjamin as a rookie assuming he is a week 1 starter? Might he have numbers like Keenan Allen in 2013 (71 rec, 1046 yds, 8 TDs)?
FO: Well, he could, but it's not likely. Allen and A.J. Green are the only rookies in the last five years to go over 1,000 yards receiving. We don't think any of this year's rookies will do it either. Our most recent projection for Benjamin is a 51-733-4 stat line.
I think Benjamin has both the offense and the opportunity to go over 1,000 yards receiving. If the Panthers can run the ball effectively Benjamin should be able to run deep into single coverage where he can use his height and leaping ability to bring down some deep passes.
The FO almanac is one of the few resources I use to preview a season and our early match-ups. I have also found the DVOA stats useful for fantasy drafts.