Yes, it took me nearly seven months to go back and watch our fifth and final loss of the 2013-14 season. Any die hard Panthers fans will relate: it was just too painful. What in the world happened? Midway through the second quarter things were looking up. It appeared as though the Panthers would assert their will on the 49ers as they had done with 11 of their previous 12 opponents, including the 49ers in the regular season.
"What happened?" The question has been haunting me ever since the day of the season-ending loss. So, last night, I sucked it up and watched the game on NFL Game Rewind for the first time. Here is my best attempt at answering the question, "Why did the Panthers lose to the 49ers?"
1. The 49ers offense controlled the line of scrimmage. There was one Panthers sack. One. And none by the Panthers D-Line. 126 yards rushing for the Niners, including 5 yards per carry for Frank Gore. I didn't see this coming, but it happened: our defensive line got beat in this game.
2. The 49ers defense controlled the line of scrimmage. Not much of a surprise here. Our offensive line was so-so, and the 49ers front 7 was very strong. Our RB's ran 13 times for 33 yards. Newton went down 5 times under lots of pressure. Two strong goal line stands at the one yard line by the Niners. Not very close on this one: big advantage to the Niners.
3. We lost the turnover battle, two (Cam interceptions on tipped balls) to zero. For whatever reason (gimpy ankle, gimpy Smitty, 49ers second half adjustments,) Cam was not very sharp, especially in the second half. Any time you go minus two in the turnover column, it is very likely you will lose the game. Especially against a good team like San Francisco.
4. The 49ers made more plays than we did. Whether it was the INT's, a big day by Anquan Boldin and Frank Gore, or being better in the red zone (Vernon Davis' catch in the corner at the end of the first half), the 49ers came up big at the crucial moments, and managed points on 5 of their drives, whereas the Panthers got 3 points on two fourth and goals from the one yard line, committed costly turnovers, and our vaunted defensive front gave us pretty much nothing.
5. We were outcoached. We witnessed the backing down of Riverboat Ron. After being shut down with no points on running plays at the Niners one yard line earlier in the first half, Rivera had another fourth and one, again after running plays, and settled for a FG. First off, the play calls were very conservative. Secondly, while many might call the FG smart coaching, I think settling for 3 there may have been one of the keys to the loss. Seven points at that juncture would have been a huge difference in the game, and the call represented a psychological backing down to the Niners' D. Also on coaching, the Niners clearly outplayed us, much more so in the second half. Give credit to Coach Harbaugh for those halftime adjustments, as well as a successful coach's challenge on the Davis TD.
6. Our defensive backs lost their cool. Mike Mitchell with the personal foul, Captain Munnerlyn with the uncharacteristic head butt, and later the Josh Thomas take down of the Niners' receiver. Dumb, dumb, dumb. We looked like a bunch of young bull kids who had never been in a china shop before. One could throw this one into the coaching category as well, though it's possible the coaches prepared them and they just didn't play smart.
That's what I saw as I reviewed the game. That is "What happened." So what do we make of it all? Let's briefly review the 6 keys to the loss with a positive note for each:
1. It's hard to say "Our defense needs to get better," since this was just one mediocre game amidst many dominant games in the regular season. But we should be better: Our young DT's should be better, having Godfrey back should help, and the new defensive backs should maintain the same level of play as last year's and hopefully keep their cool a lot better in crunch time (I'm talking to you, Roman.)
2. Our offensive line needs to improve. While I cannot say if this year's O-line will improve, I will say that the return of Silatolu and the drafting of Turner should help alleviate the loss of our retirees. More improvement is needed though.
3. We won the turnover battle most games last year. We picked a bad game to lose it against the 49ers. We are not too much of a fumbling team, so Cam is the key here. Get him better receivers (drafting Benjamin and bringing in Dickson, check) and continue to see him mature in listening to his internal clock on the pass rush, and decision-making. Our defense should continue last year's pattern of creating lots of turnovers.
4. Make more plays. Get Cam more weapons. Drafting Benjamin was a start. Have Coach Ron continue Riverboating. Get Jonathan Stewart healthy and on the field while he is still in his prime. Get Kenjon Barner out in space. See what Kony Ealy can do. Release the Kraken, while he is still on the roster.
5. Coach Ron proved a lot of people wrong last year. He has always been a knowledgeable coach, and a great leader of men. Last year he took great strides in his skills as a game-manager who knows how to win. Here's hoping this year that growth will continue in 2014 through winning a game or two in the playoffs.
6. Our defensive backs have been mostly all replaced. Hopefully Cason, DeCoud, and Harper will provide some solid play and veteran leadership, and White and some of the other young defensive backs will continue to improve in skill and maturity.
Having reviewed the game, I have a great deal of respect for what Gettleman did in the offseason. We drafted to improve both lines, we added a future star WR, and brought in some veteran defensive backs and a second pass-catching option at Tight End. Good moves that meet some of the needs that were exposed in last year's playoff loss to the 49ers.
Go Panthers!!