FanPost

July NFC South Preview

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Last summer I took a look around the NFC South, with my final conclusion being that the division was winnable. It turned out that it was, to the tune of a 12-4 record with a 5-1 division record. But a new season brings changes for everyone, so let’s see how things look in the South for the 2014 season.

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Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were just one play away from the Super Bowl in 2012, then 2013 was an unmitigated disaster. Injuries were experienced by several key players (Jones, Jackson, Clabo, Witherspoon, White). This offseason the Falcons tried to strengthen two well recognized areas of weakness; the offensive and defensive lines. They will be hoping that early draft picks Jake Matthews and Rasheede Hagamen can provide an immediate impact in that regard.

Matthews is considered to be very pro ready, however two other highly drafted OTs in Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel struggled early on last year. The Falcons will be much better if Julio Jones and Stephen Jackson return healthy, still the health of neither should be taken for granted. I also believe it is being overlooked how much this offense will miss mis-match nightmare Tony Gonzalez. Defensively the Falcons are switching to a 3-4, and I’m not sure how much Hagemen improves their pass rush or run-stopping ability, both huge areas of weakness.

Strength: Matt Ryan to Julio Jones (If healthy)- Tough to defend

Weakness: Pass-rush

X-Factor: Offensive line – If they struggle again, the entire ship could sink

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Similar to the Falcons, 2013 was a horror scenario for the Bucs, except on many more levels. They blew the #13 pick in the 2013 draft to rent (and misuse) Darrelle Revis for 1 year. Then there was the Josh Freeman quarterback saga. Then the MRSA bacteria around the facility that nearly ended Carl Nicks’s career. The weekly fire Schiano rumors… the injury to team stud Doug Martin…. The Bucs are glad 2013 is over and have hit the reset button by firing and hiring both a new head coach and GM.

On paper, the Bucs probably had the best off-season in the entire NFL. The defense was reloaded in free-agency with Michael Johnson and Alteruan Verner. The offense bolstered in the draft via Mike Evans and Austin-Seferian Jenkins. On defense, the question is, "After disappointment from Bowers and Clayborn, can Michael Johnson finally spark their pass rush?" And the even bigger question for the team overall, "What can you get from 35 year-old Josh McCown?". Does he reinvent himself late in his career to lead them to the promised land, Rich Gannon-style? Or does he regress to the mean to be what he has always been, a career back-up. What I said last year holds true this year as well: Despite the new additions, much of Tampa’s season rests on what happens at the QB position.

Strength: Defense (Their tough run-stopping unit and an upper-level secondary could control games)

Weakness: Quarterback (Your eggs are all-in the McCown basket?)

X-Factor: Michael Johnson (If he is good, then the defense becomes scary)

New Orleans Saints

These Saints are different. In 2012, New Orleans fielded one of the worst defenses in NFL history. Then came Rob Ryan and a switch to the 3-4. Now the Saints have become a team to be reckoned with on both sides of the ball, making them again the team to beat in this year’s NFC South.

The new and improved Saints defense can compensate if their offense slows down any. Suddenly, Cam Jordan and Junior Gallette are combining to form a very fierce pass rush, with Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccacro looking to take advantage from the back end at the safety spots. Add in Brandin Cooks with Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, and Kenny Stills; and now opposing defensive coordinators have even more options for Brees to keep their eyes on. I do wonder how much Sproles will be missed though.

Last year the Rams and Panthers (in Carolina) showed that the best way to limit the Saints offense is through constant pressure. How much can the opposition dominate their biggest weakness, a mediocre offensive line?

Strength: Offensive skill positions (a lot to account for, and few teams have an answer for Graham and Cooks)

Weakness: Offensive line (Terron Armestead has a big jump to make at LT)

X-Factor: Cam Jordan (if he is in beast mode again this year, any team that falls behind will be in trouble)

Carolina Panthers

This time last year, few outside of the faithful fan base believed that Carolina could even challenge for a divisional crown, much less win it. Yet one year later the Panthers sit with a 12-4 record and the title of NFC South champions.

They won last year with nasty defense, combined with clutch big plays from Cam Newton. Expect the defensive front 7 to be even better this year, as Star and Short are no longer rookies, and the reigning DPOY is now a 3rd year veteran.

The offense will again seek to win via pounding the ball and eating up clock. Sustain a few long drives, but finish those drives with points. To do this, the offense will need to run the ball consistently aside from Cam Newton. Hopefully Trai Turner can help with that from the right guard spot, the weakest offensive-line position for the past 2 years. A healthy Jonathan Stewart would help as well, but I wouldn't bet on him being healthy at this stage of his career (and neither did Gettleman).

At the receiving positions we have chain movers and guys who can score in the red-zone, but few instant big-play makers. This offense is not built to catch-up if the team falls behind early, so it's up to the defense to keep this from happening. And again the pressure falls on Cam to engineer long, methodical, mistake-free drives each time out on the field, then finish those drives with points. But this time he’ll have to do it without go-to play maker Steve Smith. The hope is that a new play maker eventually arises in Kelvin Benjamin, but it could take some time.

Strength: Defensive front-7 (duh)

Weakness: Wide receivers (yeah, yeah)

X-Factor: Offensive line (if we can’t run the ball or give our WRs time to get open then :-(

Bottom line:

Just two years ago, Atlanta had one of the best records in the league. But as it stands, I don’t see them as an upper level team in 2014. They can’t run the ball, Tony G’s retirement is going to hurt, and it’s hard to win with an average defense. Too much of their season rides upon Julio Jones being healthy and effective (which is no given). The Bucs will be very competitive, but I don’t have faith in their QB position. It’s the most important position on the field, and it’s hard to win with a below average QB.

So again it boils down to the Panthers and the Saints. The Saints are potent on both sides of the ball, and and arguably have the best coaching staff in the division. To win the division crown again, the Panthers need to ensure they take care of business when the Saints come to Bank of America stadium. And last time it took a monsoon, a rookie LT making his first start, a monster game from Luke Kuechly, and a last second play from Cam Newton to get the W (though they did benefit from Smitty going down early).

We will also need some outside help, similar to what the Rams gave us last year. New Orleans’s schedule seems to be unusually lucky. They have tough games against the Packers, 49ers, Ravens, and Bengals, but get to face ALL of them at home in the Super Dome. Then three of their non-divisional road games are against Dallas (dome), Detroit (dome), and the Browns (sucky team). We will likely need to pull for the Bucs to beat them in Tampa, and for the Steelers and Bears to do the same in their respective houses.

It’s going to be an uphill battle. Teams may stack the box against us this year to slow the run, since they may not fear us over the top. We will have to adapt and overcome. I have a lot of confidence in Cam’s progression, and I believe that this year he makes another the jump into the stratosphere of QBs. The climb for the Panthers will likely be an uphill battle, but once again…the division is available for the taking.

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