FanPost

The 2015 Cap Situation: Only As Bad As Gettleman Wants To Make It

What is worse than being a bad team or a capped out team? A bad, capped out team. A bunch of guys with big contracts and it boggles the mind: who on earth is worth all this money? On the Panthers, not very many, especially when you consider that several of the Panthers are still on their rookie deals and as a result are relative bargains. So, the Panthers need to do what they should have done in Gettleman's first year, which was to take the pain now, blow the team up, and be in good salary cap position as soon as possible. Had that been done, the Panthers would have had money to spend in 2014. If it is done now, they will have money to spend in 2016.

It is amazing when you look at this depth chart and realize how few guys really should be untouchable moving forward.

Offense

Cam Newton, Ryan Kalil, Greg Olsen, Kelvin Benjamin

Yes, that really is it. 4 guys, 2 of them on their rookie deals. And the scary thing is that both Olsen and Kalil turn 30 next season and neither will play forever.

Defense

Kawann Short, Star Lotulelei, Luke Kuechly are it. All guys on their rookie deals. But where is Charles Johnson? Answer: 5 sacks without Hardy. Thomas Davis? He'll be 32 next season, which means that by the time the Panthers are contending, it will be about time for him to call it quits.

That really is it: about 7 guys. Now of course, realistically, a bunch of other guys with cheap (rookie) deals who have shown a bit can/will be kept around, i.e. various draft picks and UDFAs from the past two seasons.

The amazing thing: the Panthers appear to have a ton of money invested in a few guys: Kalil, Stewart, Williams, Johnson and Davis basically. Now you can add Olsen to the list sort of, as his cap figure will be nearly $8 million next year, but as he will be a UDFA after 2015, he is certain to get an extension that will shave some off that figure. Ryan Kalil may be a bit more tricky, as he will be an UDFA after 2016. But he has a $12 million cap figure in 2015 and a $10.4 million one in 2016, so the Panthers should also make signing him to an extension to get his cap figure down. Basically 5 year deals for both that will have both guys retire as Panthers should be the ticket.

Now as for Thomas Davis: let's be frank. Cutting the guy will save $5.5 million off the 2014 cap. If the Panthers are able to get a pair of OTs in free agency, they can use their 1st round pick on a CB and their 2nd round pick on an OLB. But the big one: Charles Johnson. Yes, it will be touchy, as Johnson just redid his deal last year. But the reality: Johnson's cap number will be $20 million next year. Let me restate that: $20 million. Now they could cut the guy, save $6.5 million against the cap, and see what is available on the free agent market as pass rushers go. That would be a classic "we are rebuilding" fire sale type move. However, as he came into the NFL with Olsen and Kalil, they "should" be able to do a third 5 year extension that cuts his cap number in half, as he is also an UDFA after 2016 (oh yes, and his cap figure in 2015 is $15 million).

Look at it this way:

Olsen: $8 million

Kalil: $12 million

Davis: $10 million

Johnson: $20 million


That is $50 million dollars for those 5 guys. Imagine if the Panthers are able to swing this:

Olsen: $5 million

Kalil: $8 million

Davis: $5.5 million (released)

Johnson: $12.5 million

That is $31 million, a savings of $19 million!

And what of the big issue that I have avoided so far ... Double Trouble? With Stewart, the question is whether $13 million of dead money in 2015 is worth not having his $9 million count against the salary cap at all in 2016. That is the deal. See, this whole thing sometimes is misleading: we calculate it as a savings when the dead money is less than the cap figure. That is what would happen in 2016: his dead money would be $7 million and his cap figure would be $9 million, so we think that we are "saving" $2 million by releasing him. But the reality is Stewart would still cost $7 million against the 2016 cap if is released in 2016. But release him in 2015, take the $5 million pain now, and that frees up $7 million in 2016. I say that it is worth it. Williams? More of the same, except there the pain is nowhere near as bad: only $300,000. That means $2.1 million more to play with in 2016. Basically, $5.3 million this offseason buys you $9.1 million in 2016. I say that such is worth it. Feel free to disagree, since that $5.3 million could mean a starting WR (meaning better than Jerricho Cotchery) or a starting safety. It could even mean a starting LG plus some money left over if the team is tired of the Amini Silatolu experiment (and really I just about am ... it is not just that he is seldom healthy, but that he isn't that good in pass protection when he is).

Yes, there is the thought that the Panthers will want to extend Newton and Kuechly in 2015. But let us look at Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton, who got new deals in 2014.

Colin Kaepernick cap hit for 2014: $3.8 million! Andy Dalton's cap hit: $9.1 million. Now the 49ers' structure has Kaepernick's cap figure skyrocket to $17 million in 2015 and exceed $21 million the last 4 years of the deal. Dalton's deal is $9 million the first two years and then varies between $13 and $17 million. Now remember two things:

1. Kap's deal is $18 million more (both signed 6 year deals), averaging $3 million per year

2. Cam's deal will be closer to Dalton's deal in terms of overall numbers because Cam has had much less success than Cap (or Dalton)

Add those two up and the Panthers "should" be able to get Newton to agree to a contract whose cap figure in the early years of the deal are about the same as his current $7 million cap figure. As far as Kuechly goes, seriously make the guy wait. Another year to prove that he is more than a tackling machine, which quite frankly a MLB playing behind the Panthers' front 7 talent who stays on the field for all 3 downs should be. 4 career sacks (1 this year) and 6 career INTs (0 this year) ... let's see what he does next year in an expanded role in a new scheme for the Panthers' new coaching staff before being in a huge rush to make him one of the highest paid LBs in the NFL.

The good news: the next coach will make it clear to Gettleman that creating enough cap space to sign a pair of OTs is the highest offseason priority. It is the current coach who has sold to Gettleman the idea that the Panthers only need to tweak here and there without making any wholesale changes. A new coach - one who didn't play a role in building this current roster - will have no problems in asking Gettleman to do whatever it takes, even if it is a drastic move like releasing Johnson.

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