Bye weeks have not been kind to the Panthers in the Ron Rivera era. The team is seeking its first win in five tries coming off of by weeks, including playoffs. At 4-7, the Vikings come into the game as the weakest opponent the Panthers have faced after an off week. So what can we expect when Luke Kuechly and the rest of the defense take the field?
The Vikings sport the NFL's 30th ranked offense in terms of yardage and 28th ranked offense in terms of scoring. We'll get into the details of that later on. The Vikings are coming off consecutive losses to division opponents in Chicago and Green Bay, scoring 34 points total in those two contests. Overall, the Vikings struggled to move the ball with much consistency in either game. That should be a welcome sight for a Panthers defense that has shown flashes of competency, including a decent showing in their last game against a decent Falcons offense.
So can the Panthers improve on that? Let's take a look.
Panthers Defensive Line vs. Vikings Offensive Line
The Vikings have a Kalil of their own on their offensive line. They selected Matt Kalil with the 4th overall pick in 2012 with the expectation that he would be their franchise LT, but he has been anything but this year. On the year, the former Trojan has committed 11 penalties and ceded 11 sacks, 5 QB hits, and 26 QB hurries. On the opposite side of the line, 3rd year RT Mike Harris will be making his first start of the season. Harris, a former undrafted player out of UCLA, made 12 starts in two seasons with the Chargers where he had about as much success as you could expect a young undrafted tackle to have. LG Charlie Johnson has allowed frequent pressure from his guard spot and the Vikings have struggled running through his area. However, the Vikings have had more success running right behind RG Vladimir Ducasse and C John Sullivan.
On the other side of the ball, the Panthers could be without 3 of their 4 best defensive linemen. Greg Hardy remains on the exempt list, Star Lotulelei is still nursing an ankle injury, and Charles Johnson is yet to practice this week due to an illness. Whoever is playing DE for the Panthers this Sunday should be expected to generate frequent pressure on Teddy Bridgewater given the struggles the Vikings have had blocking on the edges. As a whole, the Panthers line should at least hold their own against a shaky Vikings front.
Panthers Rushing Defense vs. Vikings Rushing Offense
Adrian Peterson's season has suffered the same fate as Greg Hardy's, and that's a welcome sight for the Panthers defense. But rookie third round pick Jerick McKinnon has filled in admirably in his absence. The Georgia Southern product has posted an impressive 4.8 yards per carry average on 113 carries and already has a couple 100 yard rushing games under his belt. However, he's hit tougher times in recent weeks as he's been unable to top 54 rushing yards in any of his last 3 games. Matt Asiata will be around to vulture a few short yardage carries as he returns from a concussion. The Vikings also recently signed Ben Tate after he was released by the Browns, but based on what he showed with the Browns before his release, he isn't posing much of a threat to the incumbent Vikings backs.
If there's one thing the Panthers have been good at in recent weeks, it's stopping the run. None of the Panthers last three opponents have been able to top 3.2 yards per carry when facing Carolina, and the Panthers did not give up a single 20+ yard run in any of those games. On paper, it looks like a match-up where the teams are trending in opposite directions, with the Panthers having the edge.
Panthers Passing Defense vs. Vikings Passing Offense
Unfortunately, the Panthers have not experienced the same success defending the pass in recent weeks that they've had defending the run. In the two games prior to the Falcons game, the Panthers allowed 598 yards through the air. QBs Mark Sanchez and Drew Brees completed a mediocre 62% of their passes, but averaged 8.9 yards per attempt. That is strikingly bad, especially considering one of the QBs is Mark Sanchez. Things did take a bit of a turn for the better as Matt Ryan wasn't able to move the ball with such ridiculous efficiency. The Panthers were able to keep Atlanta's receivers in front of them and limit big plays, though they still allowed a relatively high completion percentage. The Panthers will look to build off that slight uptick in productivity against a much weaker foe.
The Vikings rank 30th in the NFL is passing yards per game. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is playing like a normal rookie QB. The Louisville product has shown flashes, but isn't a consistent NFL QB yet. He hasn't put up anything in the way of the big numbers in the last couple weeks but has proven capable in the past.
On the outside, the Vikings don't have much in the way of weapons on the outside. Greg Jennings hasn't been able to replicate the success he had in Green Bay and Cordarrelle Patterson is still developing as a WR. Jarius Wright had one good game but hasn't done anything since. Second year pro Charles Johnson (We both have a Kalil and we both have a Charles Johnson. The parallels are endless.) has had a couple decent games in the last two weeks and it will be interesting to see if he keeps that up. TE Kyle Rudolph is back after missing much of the season with a sports hernia. He's a big target that is particularly dangerous in the red zone. He might be their biggest weapon in the passing game at this point, so it will be on Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis to man the middle of the field as well as they did last week.
And I would be remiss to go through a pass defense preview without mentioning Josh Norman. He was tasked with covering Roddy White and Julio Jones last game and was targeted 12 times. On those 12 targets, he only gave up 60 yards on 7 catches. He's been the lone sparkle in the pile of poo that has been the Carolina secondary this season.
Overall Outlook
Defensively the Panthers should have the edge over the Vikings offense. The run defense has looked very good lately and should be able to maintain that this week. The Vikings don't have much in the way of an aerial threat, but anything is possible against this secondary. The Panthers should be able to hold the Vikings down well enough, but there's no telling if the offense will be able to hold their end of the bargain up (You gotta go to Ivan's article for that stuff).