As I'm sure you may have heard, the Panthers have lost four straight games. If there is any silver lining to that fact, it's that the combined record of those four teams is 23 - 13. From here on out, the schedule gets considerably easier. That starts this week against the Atlanta Falcons. Mike Smith's squad is coming off their first win in six games after defeating the hapless Buccaneers 27 - 17. That puts them at 3 - 6 on the season with all 3 wins coming against NFC South teams, and if you win against an NFC South team this year, is it really anything to be proud of?
So, what will it take to be the first divisional adversary to take down the Falcons this year? Well for one, the defense needs to keep Atlanta out of the end zone. Atlanta sports a top 10 passing offense and a bottom 10 rushing offense. Considering the fact that the Panthers have actually defended the run quite well in recent weeks while being very vulnerable against the pass, there seems to be only one way for this game to unfold while Matt Ryan and company are on the field. Atlanta will probably pick apart the Carolina secondary, so it is imperative that defensive coordinator Saen McDermott's unit shut down the run should Atlanta try to run the ball.
So how do the different phases match up? Let's take a look.
Panthers Defensive Line vs. Falcons Offensive Line
First things first. Second year defensive tackle Star Lotulelei is likely out after spraining his ankle against Philadelphia and is joined on the injury report by his running mate Kawann Short. Both were held out of practice to nurse their ankle injuries, but Short's status for Sunday isn't known at this point. If neither are able to go, it will be a huge hit to the Panthers front line. The two second year DTs have been the lone bright spot along the front four for much of the season. The rest of the defensive line is healthy, they just need to play better. Charles Johnson has been largely invisible this season, though his play has improved of late. His 26 hurries to this point are 4th in the NFL among 4-3 defensive ends, but he hasn't been able to finish and make the game changing plays this defense needs to get itself fired up.
Luckily for the Panthers, the Falcons offensive line isn't what you would call "good." Rookie left tackle Jake Matthews has struggled mightily this season, allowing 21 hurries, 3 hits, and 4 sacks of the QB. He's also been called for thirteen (13!!) penalties this season, 4 more than any other tackle in the NFL. Pro Football Focus grades may not be the most reliable "statistic", but for what it's worth, Matthews is the only offensive tackle that has graded out worse than Byron Bell this season. Guards Jon Asamoah and Justin Blalock have each allowed double pressures on the year, which is not very good for interior linemen. In the run game, the interior line has not been able to get a lot of push. Outside of runs up the middle between the RG and C, the Falcons have averaged less than 4 yards per carry through every gap between the tackles. If things hold to form, the Panthers should have the edge in this phase of the game.
Panthers Rushing Defense vs. Falcons Rushing Offense
The Falcons are not a running team. They average the third fewest carries per game and have the second lowest run to pass ratio in the NFL. Steven Jackson still gets the bulk of the carries despite averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and having just one 20+ yard carry in 111 attempts. Behind Jackson is a three pronged committee of Devonta Freeman, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Antone Smith. All three provide a change of pace to Jackson's bruising style. Rodgers seems to have lost his place in the offense lately, receiving no more than 2 carries since week three. Antone Smith is probably the scariest of any of Atlanta's backs. The Florida State product hasn't done much in recent weeks, but his explosiveness was on full display in earlier weeks, and that ability hasn't just gone away. He scored on touchdown runs from 38 and 48 yards out in weeks 3 and 4 respectively and scored a 38+ yard touchdown in 5 of the first 6 games of the season, including receptions out of the backfield. The Panthers need to be wary of his presence when he takes the field, because he is the only Atlanta back with the ability to change the game in one play.
On the Panthers side, they have played rather well against the run in recent weeks, despite the struggles of the team as a whole. The Panthers have held each of their last two opponents to under 3 yards per carry and did a fine job holding Marshawn Lynch in check in the week prior to those two. It's hard to see that trend changing given the opponent this week. Atlanta will probably have trouble moving the ball on the ground this week, but that probably won't phase them too much as they rarely run the ball anyway.
Panthers Passing Defense vs. Falcons Passing Offense
The passing game is the bread and butter of the Falcons offense. Matt Ryan is a very good quarterback with two very good wide receivers to throw to. Roddy White has started to find his groove after an up and down start to the season, topping 5 catches for 65 yards in each of his last three games. Opposite him is Julio Jones. Jones is 6th in the NFL in receiving yardage and has had 4 games of 100 yards receiving thus far. Backups Harry Douglas and Devin Hester both returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday's practice with lower leg ailments. Hester remains a big play threat even his advanced age and Harry Douglas has proven to have starting WR ability when given the opportunity.
Needless to say, the Panthers have their hands full in the passing game. Matt Ryan is a very good QB and has a bevy of weapons at his disposal. For the Panthers, rookie CB Bene Benwikere has been practicing in a limited capacity this week and his return would be much welcomed. Also, third year pro Josh Norman has been a bit of a bright spot, allowing a passer rating of just 48.4 when targeted this year. However, as a unit, the Carolina secondary has not proven the ability to cover anyone this year so there's no reason to expect to see them have much success against one of the better WR corps in the NFL.
Overall Outlook
After a rough few weeks, the Panthers finally get a break in the schedule. There are no easy games in the NFL, but a game against the 3-6 Falcons should be easier than the five straight games the Panthers have played against probable playoff teams. Still, the Falcons offense is no joke. Their running game isn't much of a threat, but what they lack on the ground they make up for in the air. Carolina's secondary will likely get picked on early and often. If they can just get a few stops and force a turnover or two, they can give the Panthers offense a chance to win the game against a porous Atlanta defense.