After forcing Cincinnati to kick a field goal, Cam Newton and company drove down the field, crossing the Bengals 30-yard line in eight plays. Newton's legs were the primary chain-mover, picking up 29-yards on four carries in overtime.
One Newton checkdown, and a Jerricho Cotchery drop later, the Panthers faced 3rd & 6 from the Bengals 23-yard line.
Newton finds Kelvin Benjamin for a five-yard gain. The Panthers failed to convert. Carolina would ultimately tie the game on a Graham Gano field goal.
What went wrong? Play call? Execution?
Final 3rd down in OT (pass completed to KB, but short of 1st down). 3/4 of routes short of sticks. pic.twitter.com/mNGQO7Cbqv
— Colin Hoggard (@ColinWFNZ) October 15, 2014
A cursory look will tell you that Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula is to blame. A deeper analysis reveals more to the story.
This play combines two three-step drop route combinations. Newton is to read the coverage and choose which side of the field to throw to. Both concepts are good against man blitzes. The top combination is better against tight coverage, the bottom against soft coverage. The Bengals show off coverage.
Shula clearly expected a blitz. Why?
Outside of the ten-yard line, Cincinnati blitzed on 11 of 14 third down passes. Remove the final two minutes of regulation and it's nine of eleven third down passes. Many of these plays included blitzes of six-plus rushers. This play is a blitz beater.
But Cincinnati does not show blitz. There are only five men in the box. But Newton does not check out of the play.
We don't know if he has that option. Many people are very high on Cam Newton this season. I believe Newton to be a top ten quarterback, but I cannot place him in the ranks of the elite. Newton seems to lack a cerebral presence that other top signal callers possess. Newton does not deserve any blame for how this play ends, but neither does he deserve any credit. Without being in the meeting rooms, or inside the headset, it's impossible to prove, but often it feels like Newton is merely following orders. Rarely taking things into his own hands.
Cincinnati rushes three initially.
The Bengals are playing off coverage, prompting Newton to target Benjamin. In real time, I assumed that the rookie simply ran his stem too short. However, Benjamin is running a timing route with Newton. The quarterback and wide receiver are on a strict clock; any deviation could be disastrous.
Almost immediately after taking the snap, Newton moves to throw, before Benjamin makes his break.
Adam "Pacman" Jones is playing off-man coverage. He remains patient, and reads Benjamin's curl. Jones plays this perfectly.
As Benjamin turns back for the ball, note the poor hand positioning. Benjamin is passively receiving the Newton pass, instead of catching it.
As a result, Benjamin is still trying to corral the ball when Jones makes contact. Instead of snagging the pass with his hands and turning to break the tackle, the rookie standout is merely trying to hold onto the pass. Jones stands him up, and Benjamin is dropped one-yard short.
It isn't completely Benjamin's fault. Jones hit him almost immediately after the ball reached his hands. Breaking the tackle would not have been an easy task.
For over 60 minutes, Cincinnati sold Carolina on third down blitzes, before pulling the metaphorical rug out. Yes, Newton could have called an audible. Yes, Benjamin could have done a better job in attacking the pass. Sometimes it isn't a matter of execution, or play call, but rather the opponent calls the perfect coverage.