FanPost

Combine Red Flags to Watch for by Position

USA TODAY Sports

The Combine workouts start Saturday, so now is a good time to post some Red Flag Combine measurements/drill numbers to watch out for. These come from a series of articles by Draftmetrics' Tony Villiotti, at the National Football Post, covering the last 14 years of the draft, and an ESPN chart of the 5 year average measurements/events numbers for each position (links at the bottom).

First off, it's startling just how slight the difference in performance are between all Combine participants, and those that go on to become NFL starters really is. However, here are a few key observations and Red Flags observed by Tony Villiotti of Draftmetrics, for some positions.

RB's:

Observations:

1. "Speed is the leading indicator of future performance" - Tony Villiotti

2. 4.50-40's or faster, 63% of 3 year starters, 46.6% of 1 year starters, but only 33.1% of all Combine RB's.

3. 4.59-40's or faster, 90% of 3 year starters, 74% of 1 year starters, and 60.4% of all Combine RB's.

4. 4.62-40's or faster, 100% of 3 year starters, 93.2% of 1 year starters, and 80.4% of all Combine RB's.

5. "Agility drills had no correlation with success" - Tony Villiotti

Red Flags:

1. 1 of 64 RB's who ran slower than a 4.66-40 became a 3 year starter.

2. 0 of 30 RB's with 20 Yard Split times of 2.74 or higher became starters.

3. 1 of 27 RB's with a broad jump of less than 111" became a starter.

4. 0 of 40 RB's with a broad jump of less than 112" became a 3 year starter.

TE's:

Red Flags:

1. 1 of 17 TE's with a 10 yard split of over 1.75 were drafted.

2. 1 of 17 TE's with a broad jump under 106" became a starter.

WR's:

Observations:

1. "Speed is important but no guarantee in predicting success" - Tony Villiotti

2. 25% of 1 year starters ran a 1.50-10 yard split, or less.

3. 70% of 1 year starters ran a 4.51-40 or faster.

Red Flags:

1. 0 of 39 3 year starters ran a 1.64-10 yard split or slower.

2. 2 of 39 1 year starters ran a 1.64-10 yard split or slower.

3. 4 of 71 3 year starters had vertical jumps of 33" or less.

4. 8 of 71 1 year starters had vertical jumps of 33" or less.

Small DE's (270 pounds or less):

Red Flags:

1. 0 of 33 small DE's with a 31" or less vertical jump became 3 year starters.

2. 1 of 33 small DE's with a 31" or less vertical jump became 1 a year starter.

3. 2 of 35 small DE's that ran a 4.92-40 or slower became starters.

4. 0 of 15 small DE's that ran a 4.59-20 yard shuttle or slower became starters.

5. 1 of 28 small DE's that ran a 4.53-20 yard shuttle or slower became 3 year starters.

6. 2 of 28 small DE's that ran a 4.53-20 yard shuttle or slower became 1 year starters.

Large DE's (over 270 pounds):

Red Flags:

1. 1 of 12 who ran a 1.77-10 yard split or slower became a 3 year starter.

2. 2 of 12 who ran a 1.77-20 yard split or slower became a 1 year starter.

DT's:

Red Flags

1. 0 of 23 DT's who ran a 5.31-40 or slower became a 3 year starter.

2. 0 of 24 DT's with less than 21 bench reps became a 3 year starter.

LB's:

Red Flags:

1. 0 of 27 LB's with fewer than 16 bench reps became 3 year starters.

2. 2 of 34 LB's under 6'0" tall became 3 year starters.

3. 9 of 86 LB's running a 4.83-40 or slower became 3 year starters.

4. 5 of 86 LB's running a 4.83-40 or slower became 1 year starters.

Safetys

Observation: 4.55-40 or faster, 62% of 3 year starters, 60% of 1 year starters, and 41% of non-starters.

Red Flags:

1. 1 of 18 with a less than 31.5" vertical jump became a starter.

2. 2 of 26 running a 4.71-40 or slower became 3 year starters.

CB's:

Observations:

1. "The 40 yard splits are the biggest indicator of future success" - Tony Vlliotti

2. 1.56-10 yard splits or faster, 72% of 3 year starters, and 70% of 1 year starters,

3. 4.51-40 or less, 81% of 3 year starters, 74% of 1 year starters.

4. 35.5" vertical jump or better, 83% of 3 year starters, and 73% of 1 year starters.

Red Flags:

1. 6 of 99 CB's running a 4.55-40 or slower became 3 year starters.

2. 0 of 35 CB's running a 4.64-40 or slower became 3 year starters.

3. 2 of 35 CB's running a 4.64-40 or slower became 1 year starters.

4. 1 of 35 CB's with a 32.5" or less vertical jump became a 3 year starter.

5. 1 of 29 CB's with a 113" or less brod jump became a 3 year starter.

6. 0 of 31 CB's running a 1.65-10 yard split became 3 year starters.

These Draftmetric charts show the average height, weight, 10 yard splits, 20 yard splits, flying 20's, 40 yard dash, bench press, verticle jump, broad jump, 20 yard shuttle, and 3-cone drills, for all Combine perticipants, those drafted, 1 and 3 year starters, from 1999-2012.

The ESPN chart shows the average height, weight, arm length, hand size, bench reps, 40 time, vertical jump, broad jump, 20 yard shuttle, and 3-cone drill, for all positions over the last 5 years of the Combine.

Here are how these numbers are reflected in so recent Panthers draft picks. 2012 1st round pick, MLB Luke Kuechly was above average on all but arm length, on the ESPN chart. 2012 2nd round pick, LG Amini Silatolu was only slighly above average on 4 (hand size, bench reps, vertical jump, and broad jump) of the 10 measurements on the ESPN chart. 2012 4th round pick, DE Frank Alexander didn't workout at the Combine. 2012 4th round pick, WR Joe Adams was only above average in 2 measurements, the vertical jump and broad jump. 2012 5th round pick, CB Josh Norman was above average on 4 (Height, weight, arm length, and hand size) of the 10 measurements on the ESPN chart, and below average on all 6 athletic test. Norman also hit 2 of the red flags from Draftmetrics. Punters aren't included in the studies, and 7th round pick D. J. Campbell didn't workout at the Combine.

This first link has links to all positions except S's.

The content of these posts are those of the user/fan making the post only

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