FanPost

Panthers at Dolphins: A Fan's Analysis and Prediction

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

A few weeks ago I created a statistical analysis tool that allows for a pretty accurate picture of the way a game should turn out. I have posted predictions within threads for the last two games. If you are wondering about the accuracy of the system here are the predictions and actual results:

Panthers @ 49ers Prediction: 20-18 Panthers victory
Panthers @ 49ers Result: 10-9 Panthers victory

Patriots @ Panthers Prediction: 16-21 Panthers Victory
Patriots @ Panthers Result: 20-24 Panthers Victory

As you can see while not perfect, the system has been pretty close over the past 2 games of official use for margin of victory. That being said, the system can't account for major injuries, weather, home field advantage, or down right sloppy play. Basically, the system looks at 4 major stats: average points allowed, average points scored, opponents average points allowed, and opponents average points scored. Then it finds the average offensive and defensive adjustment. Offensively this shows whether a team typically scores more or less points than their opponents allow on average. A positive number is good, negative bad. Defensively it shows whether the team allows more or less points than their opponents typically score. In this case, negative is good and positive is bad. This happens for both teams involved and then uses a formula to find the most likely outcome.

Now that the introduction to the system is out of the way, let's see what it has to say about this weeks matchup with the Dolphins, shall we?

Carolina Panthers

  • Average Points Allowed: 13.5
  • Average Points Scored: 23.8
  • Opponents Average Points Allowed: 23.33
  • Opponents Average Points Scored: 22.69
  • Average Offensive Adjustment: +0.467
  • Average Defensive Adjustment: -9.186
  • Miami Dolphins

  • Average Points Allowed: 22.5
  • Average Points Scored: 21.3
  • Opponents Average Points Allowed: 22.97
  • Opponents Average Points Scored: 23.16
  • Average Offensive Adjustment: -1.671
  • Average Defensive Adjustment: -0.657
  • What does all of this mean? Basically, the data shows how strong the Panthers defense has been this season. They allow over 9 points per game less than their opponents typically score. The Carolina offense scores just ever so slightly more than their opponents typically allow. The Dolphins on the other hand score 1.671 points per game less than their opponents allow, but also hold their opponents score to 0.657 points less than they are used to scoring.

    Prediction: Panthers 23, Dolphins 12

    I hope you enjoyed this breakdown as it is my very first Fan Post. I hope to do this each and every week moving foward to give everyone an extra take of the breakdown of the game.

    The content of these posts are those of the user/fan making the post only

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