Is Cam Newton a 1st Round Fantasy Draft Pick?

Aug 17, 2012; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) shares candy with people on the sidelines during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Bank of America Stadium.The Panthers defeated the Dolphins 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-US PRESSWIRE

I do not ask this question rhetorically speaking. I actually have to make this decision on Newton by the end of next week for one of my fantasy leagues so I was thinking I would ask for some help. Here's the details of my decision. It's a single player keeper league and I have Newton as the only player on the roster worth keeping and forfeiting my 1st round pick. The draft order is already set in reverse order of last year's finish and I'm picking 4th. Yes, my season sucked last year!

I've looked at the keepers already declared and those likely to be declared by each team before it locks an hour before the draft. I've listed the likely keepers at each position to see who might be available for me at #4 if I should try to hold out and grab Newton back up at #17.

So if your initial answer to the question posed in the title was 'No' you should first see who I most likely have to pick from instead of Cam. Then take the poll and tell me what to do...after the jump...

Here's the way I see the Keepers being declared if each goes with their highest ranked player:

Pick #

Keeper

1

Julio Jones

2

Ray Rice

3

Arian Foster

4

Cam Newton (Jaxon)

5

Chris Johnson

6

Tom Brady

7

Aaron Rodgers

8

Calvin Johnson

9

LeSean McCoy

10

Drew Brees

So the first thing I imagine strikes you is there is no way the guy at #1 sticks with Julio Jones. Actually I think he will and here's why. He's a Falcons fan and his other choices are Frank Gore and Jimmy Graham. Though I agree both are good players and will probably be gone before it get backs around to #20 (Gore might not) I think he's too much of a Homer to risk losing Jones, who might be there at #20. Well, actually if he does drop Jones I'll draft him number #17 just to piss him off!

If the top 10 does shake out like this then my options for drafting someone instead of keeping Cam is primarily MJD or maybe Adrian Petersen. Both of these picks have red flags as MJD still hasn't reported to the Jags for the season due to a contract dispute. As you know AP is coming off an ACL injury making his draft value hard to predict.

Otherwise I'm looking at an elite WR like Fitz or Dre Johnson. There is no other QB I would take over Cam and I wouldn't take one of the TEs either.

A less likely scenario is Chris Johnson is not declared a keeper at #5. Would you take Chris Johnson if he was there at #4. Since the team that has Ray Rice also has MJD we know MJD will be there. Do you like MJD better than Chris Johnson?

The remaining five teams behind me are most likely to keep the players I've listed. I rarely find a WR worth a 1st round pick but Calvin Johnson is an exception. I would find Megatron worthy of the #8 pick just based on his predicted stats without considering how much a Johnson Homer I am. But I wouldn't take him over Cam either!

So my next question is if I should not declare Cam my keeper do you think he would still be there at #17 no matter who else I decided to take at #4? Cam is currently #23 on the leagues default draft rankings. I would think the chances are pretty good he is still there. If the Falcons fan was in front of me he might be a douche and take Newton at #20 just to piss me off, but he's at #20! NaGaNole...you might know him. 'Nags' for short I like to say. We tend to roll like that!

Oh decisions! Decisions! Help me...I need a beer.

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