Draft Value Index (DVI): Special 2nd Round edition

Good afternoon Panthers fans! Boy I hope you are all as excited about Luke Kuechly as I am. Not only is he a great player and a very wise decision by our front office, his selection also means my DVI system was 100% right in predicting our first round pick!


As I expected, the Panthers would make a selection between Luke Kuechly and Fletcher Cox, ultimately going with the BPA. Kuechly was the clear BPA at that point, and they took him without even entertaining a trade offer. Per my rankings, Luke Kuechly came in with an off-the-charts PQ rating of 11. Meaning he is ultra talented, injury free, and a born leader/good Samaritan. I expect Kuechly will become legendary wearing the black and electric blue, Pat Yasinkas thinks that Kuechly has all the ability of Dan Morgan without any of the injury issues. While that comparison might make some fans uneasy, just remember how good Morgan was while he was on the field. Take away those injury issues, and you have Kuechly. That said and without further ado... it is time to find out where we will go with our 2nd round pick.

The 2nd round is still chock full of top quality talent due to some highly questionable moves by certain franchises in the first round. To account for this, I have expanded my DVI chart to include some players I did not think would be in play at this point. Check out the new rankings, after the jump...

Since I have added new names to the DVI chart, I have included the expanded table of rankings. This includes not just the PQ and TS of a player and position, but also the base ratings and modifiers. Let's look at the ranks...

Player Name Position BPQ ICM BCM PQ TS DVI
Bryan Anger P 10 0 0 10 7 17
Janoris Jenkins CB 9 0 -2 7 9 16
Jerel Worthy DT 6 1 0 7 9 16
Brandon Thompson DT 5 1 1 7 9 16
Josh Chapman DT 8 -2 1 7 9 16
Stephen Hill WR 7 1 1 9 6 15
Reuben Randle WR 7 1 1 9 6 15
Drew Butler P 8 0 0 8 7 15
Jayron Hosley CB\PR 6 0 0 6 9 15
Cordy Glenn OT 8 1 0 9 6 15
Alshon Jeffery WR 8 1 -1 8 6 14
Jonathan Martin OT 6 1 1 8 6 14
Trumaine Johnson CB 6 -1 0 5 9 14
Chase Minnifield CB 6 -1 0 5 9 14
Devon Still DT 7 -2 0 5 9 14
Brandon Boykin CB\PR 6 -1 0 5 9 14
Joe Adams PR\WR 7 0 0 7 6 13
Brian Quick WR 6 1 0 7 6 13
Mohamed Sanu WR 6 1 0 7 6 13
Amini Silatolu OG 6 1 0 7 5 12
Ronald Leary OG 5 1 0 6 5 11
A.J. Jenkins WR 4 1 0 5 6 11
Coby Fleener TE 8 0 0 8 3 11
George Iloka S 6 1 0 7 2 9
Orson Charles TE 5 1 0 6 3 9
Andre Branch DE 6 1 0 7 2 9
Zach Brown OLB 7 1 0 8 0 8
Lavonte David OLB 7 0 1 8 0 8
DeQuan Menzie CB\S 5 1 0 6 2 8
Kelcie McCray S 4 1 0 5 2 7
Janzen Jackson S 7 0 -2 5 2 7
Keenan Robinson ILB 5 1 0 6 0 6
James-Michael Johnson ILB 4 1 0 5 0 5

Some Notes about the new table:

The TS rating of all players that play linebacker have dropped to ZERO to reflect the selection of Kuechly. As Kuechly is considered to be able to play all 3 linebacker spots, this affected OLB and ILB classes.

Punters will be considered statistical outliers until the 3rd round, as I am unaware of any punters going earlier then that in the last three decades.

Thoughts on the 2nd round in general

The second round, particularly this year, is where the rubber meets the road on a lot of players with injury histories or with off-field issues. This is where we find out just how much NFL teams value good conduct off the field and a player without any injury baggage. Looking at the chart you will see some pretty high BPQ ratings still available, most notably Janoris Jenkins with a 9, Alshon Jefferey and Josh Chapman with an 8, and Devon Still with a 7. However, each of these players carry baggage with them, and that is the main reason they are still available in the 2nd round. Jenkins could have been a top 10 pick if not for his troubles.

Who will the Panthers select?

The way I see it, we are going to have a decision made for us on some of the guys with off field problems and injury issues.

  • If I'm a betting man, I put money on Janoris Jenkins not making it to 40. There is too much talent there to pass up. Some team within the past 24 hours has talked themselves into wanting him before we get a chance. I think we may see a trade up for his services before pick 40.
  • Devon Still may find his way off the board before we pick because he has such high talent despite a bevy of injury issues.

I think there will be a DT with a DVI of 16 available when we pick. I also think that one WR between Stephen Hill, Reuben Randle, and Alshon Jefferey will also be waiting. I do not think a CB will represent good value at this junction, unless Janoris Jenkins is sitting there and we are okay with his off-field issues. DT seems like the best place to go on this pick. Of the 3 available, the Panthers have the strongest ties to Jerel Worthy and Brandon Thompson. I think Chapman is the most talented of the 3, but he has a long injury history already. We need a solid run stuffer, as well as some capacity to rush the passer and penetrate the pocket, so here is my prediction...

With the 40th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select...


... Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State.

Worthy represents the least damaged goods out of the 3 top DTs still on the board in the 2nd round. While some think he is inconsistent, he lets his tape do the talking. Worthy is an absolute force in the middle. He requires a double team on run plays, and can get in the backfield to rush the passer on passing downs. His combine performance was mediocre, which is why he is still sitting here, but I don't think the game film lies.

Remember, this is just my prediction. Ultimately, the player the DVI predicts is whoever the person with the highest DVI rating is at our pick. In a tiebreaker, it goes to PQ rating aka BPA.

Anyway, I am stoked about the 2nd round tonight, can't wait for it to start!

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