Scoring the Drafts

NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 28: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell speaks at the podium during the 2011 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall on April 28, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

Last week we unveiled a system for judging draft picks and draft classes. As promised then, here are the scores of every draft Marty Hurney has driven for the Panthers.

Of course, there are some surprises here. This is a unbiased system, it grades strictly by the round a player is taken in, how many games they've played, over how many seasons, and how many times they've started.

(Editor's note: Please understand that this is not measuring the talent of a player, it's looking at the impact the draft pick had on the team. Players who contribute right away reflect more favorably on the GM, those that sit for several years usually develop because of the coaching. This is all about the GM's score, not the coach's.)

A player who comes in and contributes right away, and then flames out, will be rated higher than one who sits on the bench for four years before becoming a starter. This was explained in detail in the aforementioned article. And it's why a player like Keary Colbert is rated as a better draft pick than James Anderson. Anderson is a better player, but based on the lifespan of a GM he may end up being a better player for the next guy. Colbert contributed right away, so Hurney looked smarter for drafting him.

So there are some surprises like that. What isn't a surprise is that Cam Newton is looking like the best draft pick Hurney has ever made, followed closely by Julius Peppers. Here are some quick hits, and then the full data is after the jump.

By round:
Round 1, 9 total picks for an average score of 107.3, with a grade of 71.9% against the baseline.
Round 2, 10 total picks for an average score of 48.9, with a grade of 38.2% against the baseline.
Round 3, 16 total picks for an average score of 47.0, with a grade of 44.0% against the baseline.
Round 4, 9 total picks for an average score of 18.4, with a grade of 21.5% against the baseline.
Round 5, 13 total picks for an average score of 25.4, with a grade of 39.7% against the baseline.
Round 6, 11 total picks for an average score of 17.4, with a grade of 40.8% against the baseline.
Round 7, 15 total picks for an average score of 20.8, with a grade of 97.5% against the baseline.

Top ten impact picks:

1) Cam Newton, 173.3
2) Julius Peppers, 161.0
3) Jordan Gross, 136.1
4) Jon Beason, 135.7
5) Ryan Kalil, 128.3
6) Chris Gamble, 112.8
7) Charles Godfrey, 96.5
8) Will Witherspoon, 95.8
9) Travelle Wharton, 95.5
10) Sherrod Martin, 87.7


By Year and Round, after the jump

*Editor's Note: The Baseline used was not addressed in the prior article. All it is really is a calculation of what a player's score would be if he started 14 games as a rookie. I just wanted something consistent. Any future articles will use an actual mean of all players drafted in that round as a baseline, so take the one recorded here with a grain of salt.

2011
Overall Score 43.8 43%
Biggest Impact Cam Newton
Best Value Cam Newton
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 Cam Newton 173.3 116%
3 Sione Fua 67.0 63%
3 Terrell McClain 72.0 68%
4 Brandon Hogan 4.0 5%
5 Kealoha Pilares 20.0 31%
6 Zachary Williams 0.0 0%
6 Lawrence Wilson 0.0 0%
7 Lee Ziemba 14.0 66%
2010
Overall Score 26.9 59%
Biggest Impact David Gettis
Best Value Robert McClain
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
2 Jimmy Clausen 34.3 27%
3 Armanti Edwards 8.2 8%
3 Brandon LaFell 32.4 30%
4 Eric Norwood 17.6 21%
6 David Gettis 56.0 131%
6 Greg Hardy 49.7 116%
6 Jordan Pugh 29.3 69%
6 Tony Pike 2.0 5%
7 Robert McClain 39.3 184%
7 RJ Stanford 0.0 0%
2009
Overall Score 28.9 52%
Biggest Impact Sherrod Martin
Best Value Captain Munnerlyn
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
2 Everette Brown 11.8 9%
2 Sherrod Martin 87.7 68%
3 Corvey Irvin 1.0 1%
4 Mike Goodson 15.4 18%
4 Tony Fiammetta 39.1 46%
5 Duke Robinson 0.0 0%
7 Captain Munnerlyn 47.3 222%
2008
Overall Score 45.0 92%
Biggest Impact Charles Godfrey
Best Value Geoff Schwartz
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 Jeff Otah 70.9 47%
1 Jonathan Stewart 29.3 20%
3 Charles Godfrey 96.5 90%
3 Dan Connor 39.8 37%
5 Gary Barnidge 30.6 48%
6 Nick Hayden 28.4 67%
7 Geoff Schwartz 49.5 232%
7 Hilee Taylor 18.2 85%
7 Mackenzy Bernadeau 42.3 198%
2007
Overall Score 51.4 51%
Biggest Impact John Beason
Best Value Ryan Kalil
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 Jon Beason 135.7 91%
2 Dwayne Jarrett 9.0 7%
2 Ryan Kalil 128.3 100%
3 Charles Johnson 59.0 55%
4 Ryne Robinson 10.7 13%
5 Dante Rosario 45.5 71%
5 Tim Shaw 11.7 18%
7 C.J. Wilson 11.0 52%
2006
Overall Score 42.3 58%
Biggest Impact Jeff King
Best Value Jeff King
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 DeAngelo Williams 75.6 51%
2 Richard Marshall 72.3 57%
3 James Anderson 59.6 56%
3 Rashad Butler 0.0 0%
4 Nate Salley 14.7 17%
5 Jeff King 84.0 131%
7 Stanley McClover 14.3 67%
7 Will Montgomery 18.0 84%
2005
Overall Score 18.9 21%
Biggest Impact Thomas Davis
Best Value Geoff Hangartner
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 Thomas Davis 71.3 48%
2 Eric Shelton 2.0 2%
3 Evan Mathis 34.8 33%
3 Atiyyah Ellison 0.0 0%
4 Stefan Lefors 0.0 0%
5 Adam Seward 14.9 23%
5 Geoff Hangartner 62.4 97%
5 Ben Emanuel 0.0 0%
6 Jovan Haye 4.0 9%
6 Joe Berger 0.0 0%
2004
Overall Score 61.2 83%
Biggest Impact Chris Gamble
Best Value Michael Gaines
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 Chris Gamble 112.8 76%
2 Keary Colbert 75.3 59%
3 Travelle Wharton 95.5 90%
5 Drew Carter 27.7 43%
6 Sean Tufts 14.0 33%
7 Michael Gaines 41.9 196%
2003
Overall Score 40.4 45%
Biggest Impact Jordan Gross
Best Value Jordan Gross
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 Jordan Gross 136.0 91%
2 Bruce Nelson 5.1 4%
3 Mike Seidman 29.7 28%
3 Ricky Manning 59.9 56%
4 Colin Branch 47.6 56%
5 Kindal Moorehead 28.6 45%
7 Walter Young 16.3 77%
7 Casey Moore 0.0 0%
2002
Overall Score 38.8 33%
Biggest Impact Julius Peppers
Best Value Julius Peppers
Round Player Raw Score Percentile
1 Julius Peppers 161.0 108%
2 DeShaun Foster 63.6 50%
3 Will Witherspoon 95.8 90%
4 Dante Wesley 16.3 19%
5 Randy Fasani 4.8 8%
5 Kyle Johnson 0.0 0%
6 Keith Heinrich 8.0 19%
7 Brad Franklin 0.0 0%
7 Pete Campion 0.0 0%
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