NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 28: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell speaks at the podium during the 2011 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall on April 28, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
Last week we unveiled a system for judging draft picks and draft classes. As promised then, here are the scores of every draft Marty Hurney has driven for the Panthers.
Of course, there are some surprises here. This is a unbiased system, it grades strictly by the round a player is taken in, how many games they've played, over how many seasons, and how many times they've started.
(Editor's note: Please understand that this is not measuring the talent of a player, it's looking at the impact the draft pick had on the team. Players who contribute right away reflect more favorably on the GM, those that sit for several years usually develop because of the coaching. This is all about the GM's score, not the coach's.)
A player who comes in and contributes right away, and then flames out, will be rated higher than one who sits on the bench for four years before becoming a starter. This was explained in detail in the aforementioned article. And it's why a player like Keary Colbert is rated as a better draft pick than James Anderson. Anderson is a better player, but based on the lifespan of a GM he may end up being a better player for the next guy. Colbert contributed right away, so Hurney looked smarter for drafting him.
So there are some surprises like that. What isn't a surprise is that Cam Newton is looking like the best draft pick Hurney has ever made, followed closely by Julius Peppers. Here are some quick hits, and then the full data is after the jump.
Round 1, 9 total picks for an average score of 107.3, with a grade of 71.9% against the baseline.
Round 2, 10 total picks for an average score of 48.9, with a grade of 38.2% against the baseline.
Round 3, 16 total picks for an average score of 47.0, with a grade of 44.0% against the baseline.
Round 4, 9 total picks for an average score of 18.4, with a grade of 21.5% against the baseline.
Round 5, 13 total picks for an average score of 25.4, with a grade of 39.7% against the baseline.
Round 6, 11 total picks for an average score of 17.4, with a grade of 40.8% against the baseline.
Round 7, 15 total picks for an average score of 20.8, with a grade of 97.5% against the baseline.
1) Cam Newton, 173.3
2) Julius Peppers, 161.0
3) Jordan Gross, 136.1
4) Jon Beason, 135.7
5) Ryan Kalil, 128.3
6) Chris Gamble, 112.8
7) Charles Godfrey, 96.5
8) Will Witherspoon, 95.8
9) Travelle Wharton, 95.5
10) Sherrod Martin, 87.7
*Editor's Note: The Baseline used was not addressed in the prior article. All it is really is a calculation of what a player's score would be if he started 14 games as a rookie. I just wanted something consistent. Any future articles will use an actual mean of all players drafted in that round as a baseline, so take the one recorded here with a grain of salt.
|Biggest Impact||Cam Newton|
|Best Value||Cam Newton|
|Biggest Impact||David Gettis|
|Best Value||Robert McClain|
|Biggest Impact||Sherrod Martin|
|Best Value||Captain Munnerlyn|
|Biggest Impact||Charles Godfrey|
|Best Value||Geoff Schwartz|
|Biggest Impact||John Beason|
|Best Value||Ryan Kalil|
|Biggest Impact||Jeff King|
|Best Value||Jeff King|
|Biggest Impact||Thomas Davis|
|Best Value||Geoff Hangartner|
|Biggest Impact||Chris Gamble|
|Best Value||Michael Gaines|
|Biggest Impact||Jordan Gross|
|Best Value||Jordan Gross|
|Biggest Impact||Julius Peppers|
|Best Value||Julius Peppers|