NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 28: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell speaks at the podium during the 2011 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall on April 28, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)
Last week we unveiled a system for judging draft picks and draft classes. As promised then, here are the scores of every draft Marty Hurney has driven for the Panthers.
Of course, there are some surprises here. This is a unbiased system, it grades strictly by the round a player is taken in, how many games they've played, over how many seasons, and how many times they've started.
(Editor's note: Please understand that this is not measuring the talent of a player, it's looking at the impact the draft pick had on the team. Players who contribute right away reflect more favorably on the GM, those that sit for several years usually develop because of the coaching. This is all about the GM's score, not the coach's.)
A player who comes in and contributes right away, and then flames out, will be rated higher than one who sits on the bench for four years before becoming a starter. This was explained in detail in the aforementioned article. And it's why a player like Keary Colbert is rated as a better draft pick than James Anderson. Anderson is a better player, but based on the lifespan of a GM he may end up being a better player for the next guy. Colbert contributed right away, so Hurney looked smarter for drafting him.
So there are some surprises like that. What isn't a surprise is that Cam Newton is looking like the best draft pick Hurney has ever made, followed closely by Julius Peppers. Here are some quick hits, and then the full data is after the jump.
By round:
Round 1, 9 total picks for an average score of 107.3, with a grade of 71.9% against the baseline.
Round 2, 10 total picks for an average score of 48.9, with a grade of 38.2% against the baseline.
Round 3, 16 total picks for an average score of 47.0, with a grade of 44.0% against the baseline.
Round 4, 9 total picks for an average score of 18.4, with a grade of 21.5% against the baseline.
Round 5, 13 total picks for an average score of 25.4, with a grade of 39.7% against the baseline.
Round 6, 11 total picks for an average score of 17.4, with a grade of 40.8% against the baseline.
Round 7, 15 total picks for an average score of 20.8, with a grade of 97.5% against the baseline.
1) Cam Newton, 173.3
2) Julius Peppers, 161.0
3) Jordan Gross, 136.1
4) Jon Beason, 135.7
5) Ryan Kalil, 128.3
6) Chris Gamble, 112.8
7) Charles Godfrey, 96.5
8) Will Witherspoon, 95.8
9) Travelle Wharton, 95.5
10) Sherrod Martin, 87.7
*Editor's Note: The Baseline used was not addressed in the prior article. All it is really is a calculation of what a player's score would be if he started 14 games as a rookie. I just wanted something consistent. Any future articles will use an actual mean of all players drafted in that round as a baseline, so take the one recorded here with a grain of salt.
| 2011 | |||
| Overall Score | 43.8 | 43% | |
| Biggest Impact | Cam Newton | ||
| Best Value | Cam Newton | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | Cam Newton | 173.3 | 116% |
| 3 | Sione Fua | 67.0 | 63% |
| 3 | Terrell McClain | 72.0 | 68% |
| 4 | Brandon Hogan | 4.0 | 5% |
| 5 | Kealoha Pilares | 20.0 | 31% |
| 6 | Zachary Williams | 0.0 | 0% |
| 6 | Lawrence Wilson | 0.0 | 0% |
| 7 | Lee Ziemba | 14.0 | 66% |
| 2010 | |||
| Overall Score | 26.9 | 59% | |
| Biggest Impact | David Gettis | ||
| Best Value | Robert McClain | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 2 | Jimmy Clausen | 34.3 | 27% |
| 3 | Armanti Edwards | 8.2 | 8% |
| 3 | Brandon LaFell | 32.4 | 30% |
| 4 | Eric Norwood | 17.6 | 21% |
| 6 | David Gettis | 56.0 | 131% |
| 6 | Greg Hardy | 49.7 | 116% |
| 6 | Jordan Pugh | 29.3 | 69% |
| 6 | Tony Pike | 2.0 | 5% |
| 7 | Robert McClain | 39.3 | 184% |
| 7 | RJ Stanford | 0.0 | 0% |
| 2009 | |||
| Overall Score | 28.9 | 52% | |
| Biggest Impact | Sherrod Martin | ||
| Best Value | Captain Munnerlyn | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 2 | Everette Brown | 11.8 | 9% |
| 2 | Sherrod Martin | 87.7 | 68% |
| 3 | Corvey Irvin | 1.0 | 1% |
| 4 | Mike Goodson | 15.4 | 18% |
| 4 | Tony Fiammetta | 39.1 | 46% |
| 5 | Duke Robinson | 0.0 | 0% |
| 7 | Captain Munnerlyn | 47.3 | 222% |
| 2008 | |||
| Overall Score | 45.0 | 92% | |
| Biggest Impact | Charles Godfrey | ||
| Best Value | Geoff Schwartz | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | Jeff Otah | 70.9 | 47% |
| 1 | Jonathan Stewart | 29.3 | 20% |
| 3 | Charles Godfrey | 96.5 | 90% |
| 3 | Dan Connor | 39.8 | 37% |
| 5 | Gary Barnidge | 30.6 | 48% |
| 6 | Nick Hayden | 28.4 | 67% |
| 7 | Geoff Schwartz | 49.5 | 232% |
| 7 | Hilee Taylor | 18.2 | 85% |
| 7 | Mackenzy Bernadeau | 42.3 | 198% |
| 2007 | |||
| Overall Score | 51.4 | 51% | |
| Biggest Impact | John Beason | ||
| Best Value | Ryan Kalil | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | Jon Beason | 135.7 | 91% |
| 2 | Dwayne Jarrett | 9.0 | 7% |
| 2 | Ryan Kalil | 128.3 | 100% |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 59.0 | 55% |
| 4 | Ryne Robinson | 10.7 | 13% |
| 5 | Dante Rosario | 45.5 | 71% |
| 5 | Tim Shaw | 11.7 | 18% |
| 7 | C.J. Wilson | 11.0 | 52% |
| 2006 | |||
| Overall Score | 42.3 | 58% | |
| Biggest Impact | Jeff King | ||
| Best Value | Jeff King | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | DeAngelo Williams | 75.6 | 51% |
| 2 | Richard Marshall | 72.3 | 57% |
| 3 | James Anderson | 59.6 | 56% |
| 3 | Rashad Butler | 0.0 | 0% |
| 4 | Nate Salley | 14.7 | 17% |
| 5 | Jeff King | 84.0 | 131% |
| 7 | Stanley McClover | 14.3 | 67% |
| 7 | Will Montgomery | 18.0 | 84% |
| 2005 | |||
| Overall Score | 18.9 | 21% | |
| Biggest Impact | Thomas Davis | ||
| Best Value | Geoff Hangartner | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | Thomas Davis | 71.3 | 48% |
| 2 | Eric Shelton | 2.0 | 2% |
| 3 | Evan Mathis | 34.8 | 33% |
| 3 | Atiyyah Ellison | 0.0 | 0% |
| 4 | Stefan Lefors | 0.0 | 0% |
| 5 | Adam Seward | 14.9 | 23% |
| 5 | Geoff Hangartner | 62.4 | 97% |
| 5 | Ben Emanuel | 0.0 | 0% |
| 6 | Jovan Haye | 4.0 | 9% |
| 6 | Joe Berger | 0.0 | 0% |
| 2004 | |||
| Overall Score | 61.2 | 83% | |
| Biggest Impact | Chris Gamble | ||
| Best Value | Michael Gaines | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | Chris Gamble | 112.8 | 76% |
| 2 | Keary Colbert | 75.3 | 59% |
| 3 | Travelle Wharton | 95.5 | 90% |
| 5 | Drew Carter | 27.7 | 43% |
| 6 | Sean Tufts | 14.0 | 33% |
| 7 | Michael Gaines | 41.9 | 196% |
| 2003 | |||
| Overall Score | 40.4 | 45% | |
| Biggest Impact | Jordan Gross | ||
| Best Value | Jordan Gross | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | Jordan Gross | 136.0 | 91% |
| 2 | Bruce Nelson | 5.1 | 4% |
| 3 | Mike Seidman | 29.7 | 28% |
| 3 | Ricky Manning | 59.9 | 56% |
| 4 | Colin Branch | 47.6 | 56% |
| 5 | Kindal Moorehead | 28.6 | 45% |
| 7 | Walter Young | 16.3 | 77% |
| 7 | Casey Moore | 0.0 | 0% |
| 2002 | |||
| Overall Score | 38.8 | 33% | |
| Biggest Impact | Julius Peppers | ||
| Best Value | Julius Peppers | ||
| Round | Player | Raw Score | Percentile |
| 1 | Julius Peppers | 161.0 | 108% |
| 2 | DeShaun Foster | 63.6 | 50% |
| 3 | Will Witherspoon | 95.8 | 90% |
| 4 | Dante Wesley | 16.3 | 19% |
| 5 | Randy Fasani | 4.8 | 8% |
| 5 | Kyle Johnson | 0.0 | 0% |
| 6 | Keith Heinrich | 8.0 | 19% |
| 7 | Brad Franklin | 0.0 | 0% |
| 7 | Pete Campion | 0.0 | 0% |


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