When is the Time to Make A Determination on a Prospect?

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-02-09/nfl-mock-draft-first-round-board-fluctuates-as-combine-approaches

I am very comfortable with that selection, because it will address a huge need for us.

I am of the opinion that the combine should be used to validate scouting profiles, not form them.

great quote!

you’ll never see the Combine die down in the press, because the Combine has become a marketable event itself. it gives NFL Network relevancy during the Dark Ages, and it gives the NFL tab in ESPN and Yahoo pages something new. i never make a draft board, i never care for the Combine… i just like to get as much game tape of any player’s most recent season and look and what they’ve done. that way, if they get picked to my team, i know where to set my expectations. anyway, many players hit a different mindset during the game, something that can’t come out just because they’re told to by some strangers in the middle of February.

thanks for the read :)

Frankly, I’ve been preaching the same philosophy for several years now. Especially all of the points made in #4. There is nothing revolutionary about it. I’ve seen it quoted in books over the years by guys like Bear Bryant, Marv Levy, Bill Parcells, and Bill Walsh. You just can’t overlook the will to win and a refuse to lose mentality in a football player.

When you realize that man is from Clemson University.

Jerry Rice ran a 4.7 and he was kinda good

I feel a major aspect about the combine is the time teams get to spend with the prospects! The drills show how the player “performs under pressure” and “competes” yes, but a major thing players are evaluated on are things like:
“what’s the players’ motivation to succeed?” A prospect may dream of being great and has a competitive fire to get there.
“how do they respond to coaching/criticism?” or
“has the player developed bad habits in their training?” or worst “how seriously does a player take his training?”
The physical numbers mean just as much as the mental ones.

1. Has the prospect shown in their college career that they can play?

2. Has the prospect shown improvement from year to year? If so, how much? If not, is there a tangible reason why?

3. Does the size the player is currently fall within acceptable NFL ranges for his position?

4. Did the player show a drive and determination to be a winner, and/or did he win games for his team single handed?

I’ll be honest, twelve months ago I didn’t have that 4th criteria when I was taking notes. I learnt from my mistake on Jimmy Clausen. I, like many, believed that the supporting cast has to play some sort of a role, and had to be accounted for. However, I learned that the truth is that if you’re looking to make excuses for why a player didn’t succeed, then Occam’s razor should probably apply and you need to realize that the player might not have it.

For me i would add a 5th note too this. “Are they productive and does the production match the eye ball test.”

Meaning, some players based on situation (level of competition or defensive / offensive philosophies or players around them) their production could be inflated or stunted.

Level of competition…. Playing weak teams can inflate your stats

Defensive philosophy…. If a player had a one dimensional role in college like just pass rushing teams need to project just that skill set. And if they turn out to be weak vs the run or play reconition then it shouldn’t be a surprize.

Offensive philosophy…. a good example is the spread offense. For those that blindly say the spread offense is this or that without evaluation of what the player did in that offense. IE did they play like Andre Ware and David Kingler and dink and dunk their way to massive yardage. These players didn’t make any NFL throws because they college game had not adjusted too the wide open spread oriented style. So you didn’t see alot of down field passing just alot of screens and dump offs and wide open recievers. Yet some quarterbacks of late from spreads have played well because they did display these skillls.. Deep outs… posts.. corner routes….NFL style throws that require ball placement. The fear of the spread quarterback is based off of this because they didn’t evalute “what type of throws they are making” instead evaluations end with “spread quarterback”, J.J. Arrington was a great college back and very productive. But he was a small back that had a power back running style. Ron Dayne was a great college back but he was a big back with a small back running style…. production did not match NFL skill sets.

Players around that prospect…. it is hard to really give a player as much credit if you see tons of production yet they had players around them that helped them….or hurt them. Example Justin Blackmon was very productive yet it is my belief that there are recievers out there that are really good playing with bad quarterback play that just aren’t as productive because of it. Peter Warrick is a guy who had a similiar situation.. great college quarterback who made a ok reciever look like a top 5 pick.

These are just examples but i firmly believe production has to match >>> skill sets >>> situations >>> philosophies

That is way above where I seen him in any mock draft.

finally, somebody who sees what i see about alshon jeffrey! it was gaetting lonely for a while over the last month as people on here hit me with floyd, we have more immediate needs on defense and “i’m not sold on jeffrey.” it’s like “are you kidding me?” anybody who watched alshon high-pointing literal jumpballs from garcia and shaw during gamecocks games the last couple of years can’t conscienably say that. he has the frame, ball skills and i think he’s a deceptive strider like cam, to be megatron 2.0. i said that first right after the regular season, and stick to jeffrey or ingram as the logical first choice. to you “gettis is going to be incredible next year” folks – i refer you to my green bay example. they got like 4 #2’s and none are wasted. i think cam projects with a higher ceiling than rodgers (straight face) and deserves to be surrounded with guys who can help him achieve it. jeffrey is that, my friends. p.s. i also think moose a little bit, from a possession standpoint, with jeffrey. maybe better after the catch. i think jeffrey would be a boon for us if we’re picking 5 or 25. plain and simple.

by those criteria, jeffrey beats out dre k in every facet. anyone see jeffrey eat him up last year? how could he beat out jeffrey if we’re going bpa?

If he was at Stanford he may have 2000 yards haha