The logic of drafting David DeCastro
I believe that this article will only appeal to about ¼ of the people who read this. Based on previous polls and articles, I know I am in the minority who believe that the Panthers should draft a player to fortify their o-line. Many believe that the defense should be the priority in the first round. I agree that we need help on defense. However, I would like you to hear me out about why the Panthers should draft David DeCastro.
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Let’s first star with age: Although age, by no means, is indicative of success in the NFL, I think it is prudent to look at the average age of each of our position areas. I have excluded RB, TE, WR, QB, K, P because I believe we are mostly on the same page that the Panthers will not target one of these positions with their first pick (with the exception of Justin Blackmon, in which case, I do believe there is a decent amount of readers who would love to pick him as BPA.)Bellow is a list of the projected positional line up for next year, solely based on who is on the current roster. Free agency was not taken in to account in any of these positions:
OL:
Jordan Gross 31
Ryan Kalil 26
Jeff Otah 25/Byron Bell 23
Average Age: 28
(Please note that Gross and Wharton are getting “older”, Hangartner might not be resigned, Kalil will be with us for some time, and the Otah/Bell piece of the puzzle is just that; puzzling as to the longevity of this position)
DL:
Sione Fua 23
Greg Hardy 23
Average Age: 23.5
(Please note, I did not include Ron Edwards (32) into this equation, namely because he is a bit of an unknown quantity to us, and I am not even sure if he will survive salary cap cuts, just because of the age an injury. I think there will be a younger free agent out there at a better price)
LB:
Thomas Davis 28
Jon Beason 27
Average Age: 27.7
(Please note: This is our second “oldest” unit, but there are some young guys who showed they can step up if needed.)
Secondary:
Chris Gamble 28
Average Age: 26
(Please note: This is the second youngest and “greenest” of the units. The question here, much like with the DL, is youth or experience more of a need here?)
So there you have it, age wise, the OL is the unit in most need of a youthful piece to the puzzle. That part of the equation is a fact.
Now, as I hinted above, the next part is opinion. In each of our problem areas, what is more important, youth or experience? Considering the Panthers salary cap restrictions, they might not have a lot of choice in the matter.
So, in my opinion, the Defensive Line will be fine next year. Not a lot of people have faith in Fua or McClain, but let’s keep in mind that these guys had no offseason conditioning or training, I think that they will be much improved next season.
The Linebackers are a little thin, but we do have some young talent on the roster, and in my opinion, if we stay where we are in the draft, picking a LB at this point would be a reach.
Now, the secondary, (where most people seem to have their eyes focused), is middle of the line at best. My opinion is that, the weakness is not at CB, but at the safety position. Are we really willing to gamble (no pun intended here) that Dre Kirkpatrick will transition to Safety? Or are we expecting him to become the lockdown corner, relegating Captain to the Nickel? There are too many questions and too much risk for me.
On the other hand, here sits David DeCastro to bolster our aging Offensive Line. I have read in many places, that DeCastro is close to a sure fire safe pick (sorry, no link for this one). Last season, the Panthers offensive line allowed 35 sacks which resulted in a loss of 260 yards.
Ironically, Cam Newton also ranked 15th in the NFL in overall statistics.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=1&statisticPositionCategory=QUARTERBACK&qualified=true&season=2011&seasonType=REG
Improve the Offensive Line, improve Cam? Scary thought.
So, what are they saying about David DeCastro?:
“His prowess as a blocker on the move is impressive” (With Cam and our option offense, do you not think this is an amazing attribute to have?)
"Pass blocking: Solid pass protector who just doesn't get beat." (Sounds good to me!)
"Run blocking: Excels as a run blocker in power, zone, and when on the move." (Again, mobility is a hug plus, and this kid excels at it)
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1631907
So, in conclusion, I do agree with many of you that our defense needs help. I just disagree on where that help should come from. In my opinion, come draft day, rather than reach for a project or a hit or miss player, the Panthers should take the “sure thing”, in David DeCastro. Let’s allow him to grow up with Cam, and protect him. Isn’t it common sense to protect your assets?
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i wouldn't flinch at it.
push is almost shove with wharton. no denying. however, i just feel like you gotta get someone to AT LEAST play right tackle that high. ideally, it’s your left tackle. martin and reiff both have buzz. i sway betwixt them, but the interior rarely goes so high….
i'd add...
he seems perfect for cincy or cleveland to me b/c they have two first round picks, more capital to spend on a guy like that. i’ve no doubt he’s special, btw
I must agree that if Reiff is available, he's the more versatile and could be the longer-term replacement for Gross.
Then there’s Martin and Adams, who I’m not quite as high on. But, I wouldn’t be upset in the least if DeCastro is the pick, either. I do think he’s a special talent at a position where real difference makers are rare.
Also, if we go defense, I’m liking Brockers more and more. Low risk, very high ceiling, and can play anywhere on the D-Line, depending on the scheme in use. And he’s a big-un.
So much to be done, and so few people willing to do it for me.
Well, look at the units of need...
There are 5 O-linemen. So that would be 5 offensive players total.
There are 4 D-linemen, 3 LBs and 4 DBs. That’s 11. So, as simple and dumb as it may be, it lends credence to picking a defensive player.
I like DeCastro. But I’ll stick with it…unless we can trade down 5+ spots we shouldn’t pick him. I just don’t think he is going to make the biggest impact on the game.
We should go BPA to an extent, but you also have to consider how much impact a player will have, and much of that depends on the position he plays.
We had a top-5 offense with a guard who was cut by the Bills during camp. That tells me that guard is a secondary position on this offense.
Couple that with the atrociousness of our defense for most of the season, and we should try to find someone who can impact a game every play, and it would be great if that player was a defensive guy.
We need a nose tackle.
Hangartner was cut by the Bills
But we’ve also got a pair of former All-Pro’s on the offensive line, two Pro Bowl running backs, a Pro Bowl wide receiver….
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Feb 3, 2012 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm a bit puzzled here Jake.
My comment was about how we should draft defense #1, unless there is a clear offensive player who is the BPA.
We need a nose tackle.
I was just responding to the statement that a guard is secondary.
Maybe that’s true, but it wasn’t like Hangartner wasn’t surrounded by a ton of talent.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Feb 3, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
I guess my thinking is:
If we drafted DeCastro, we go from 3rd in rushing to 1st, perhaps. Maybe Cam takes a few less sacks. Maybe we finish 3rd or 4th in offense instead of 5th.
We have to make better use of the first pick. Until we can get into the middle of the pack (or better) defensively, we are going to continue to relinquish leads.
We need a nose tackle.
The best use of our first pick is the BPA
Regardless of what side of the ball he plays on.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Feb 3, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
What that player does on the field has to be accounted for when determining BPA, IMO.
That sounded like insurance salesman jargon at the end there, lol.
We need a nose tackle.
by ERL on Feb 3, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think BPA is a great idea on paper...
but not realistic in its purest form of the idea. We could end up drafting 3 more qbs in the next 3 years first round drafts while sending Cam to the probowl every year. This would not be beneficial to the team. We can say BPA , but need is always going to influence our decision.
"Shh! Be quiet everyone. That includes me. Shh! Who’s making that noise? Oh, it’s me again…"
by Panthster on Feb 3, 2012 2:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, at some point you have to make other considerations.
We need a nose tackle.
by ERL on Feb 3, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
And a Pro Bowl QB.
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
by Son of a Newton on Feb 4, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Not taking away from the kid he is an elite guard…but with that said he is still a guard. I think we could spend the pick in better areas. Id take Reiff or Martin over DeCastro if we go Oline. OT’s are a lot more valuable
Proud member of the Panthers Mafia!
Saving The Environment One Green Comment at a Time
"I don't see no ceiling. I don't see no breaking point." - Cam Newton
Case in point...
New Orleans has two top Guards and one considered probably the best in the NFL and both were picked at no less than the 4 round.
"Hope for the best plan for the worst"
"They laugh at me because I'm different, I laugh at them because they're all the same"
And nobody can get to Brees because he steps up into a clean pocket.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
The point is that you can obtain good even elite guards in later rounds.
"Hope for the best plan for the worst"
"They laugh at me because I'm different, I laugh at them because they're all the same"
You can get good, even elite players in any round.
That doesn’t mean you don’t pick one in the first round when he’s staring you in the face.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Feb 5, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
i could only draft DeCastro is we trade down
If we go O-Line (not my favorite option) I would rather get Reiff. I dont think we need to worry about finding a replacement for Gross for at least 3 more years but it doesnt hurt to have it now. Reiff would be an upgrade to pass blocking on the right side and a small decrease in run blocking. We could then switch Otah to RG. let me ask you this, Do you think DeCastro would be much better than Otah at RG? this would also give us added depth for the tackles (Otah, Bell, and Schwartz can slide out if needed)
Here is how i would evaluate our O-Line in either situation:
With Reiff:
Pass Blocking-
Gross A
Wharton B
Kalil A-
Otah B
Reiff B+
Run Blocking-
Gross A-
Wharton B+
Kalil A
Otah A+
Reiff A
With DeCastro:
Pass Blocking-
Gross A
Wharton B
Kalil A-
DeCastro B
Otah B
Run Blocking-
Gross A-
Wharton B+
Kalil A
DeCastro A+
Otah A+
I wanna be the very best, like no one ever was
yup this is my thoughts as well..being that we are a passing team now Reiff fits us better then Decastro. And i think Otah could be a damn good RG if he comes back healthy
Proud member of the Panthers Mafia!
Saving The Environment One Green Comment at a Time
"I don't see no ceiling. I don't see no breaking point." - Cam Newton
I think stating that we're a passing team now is overstating it.
We threw a lot early in the season to speed up Cam’s development. We finished the season third in rushing yards per game, third in yards per attempt, third in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns, and first in first downs on the ground.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Feb 3, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
yups!
we’re a passing team when we can get somebody open, but the run is our meat and potatoes when we’re winning. that’s the reason i’m leaning martin. he got that otah thing coming out i saw where he gets off a de and takes out a backer to spring the edge:)
We still are a air it out offense regardless of how much we run the ball. you can throw it deep if you dont have time to let routes develop. IMO we need Pass protection more then we need run protection. Our running game worked pretty good this year as is. Cam got blind sided a quite a few times in passing downs
Proud member of the Panthers Mafia!
Saving The Environment One Green Comment at a Time
"I don't see no ceiling. I don't see no breaking point." - Cam Newton
true, that's why i'm first on here saying tackle if...
i hated to see the hits cam took in washington and tennessee in particular. i like taking a tackle there, honest. i like schwarz later in the draft, for obvious reasons. i like otah, though, and they are masterful at keeping us hanging on with him. decastro is just lower on the board though, period.
i don't think wharton is in the pic if we get decastro,
and there’s $8 mil next year. a lot of folks like that nosetackle from miami on here. i like vincent jackson, at a reasonable rate (i.e. miracle). i’m sure that jack could get us something, if not laron landry to shore up the back end. who knows? it would change the roster.
I personally think
that otah would give decastro a run for his money at guard being so mobile and all. Injury witheld of course.
While I think drafting DeCastro makes sense
Ultimately, its going to depend on A) BPA and B) what Carolina values more….offense or defense. I think there is a lot of depth in the draft that the secondary could be addressed in later rounds.
Integrity first. Service before self. Excellence in all you do. -- USAF Core Values
by Disciple of Carolina on Feb 3, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions
Ok to point out.
You could draft an entire offensive line and drop the average age enourmously this argument takes no heed in taking a GUARD 8/9 still makes no sense. The age is not the issue what so ever its the point in time which your making the selection I would be happy to add a sure fire lineman but a surefire guard can be found much later in the draft then a CB
right
we have a young team and a youth movement is the last thing that should be on our minds
I wanna be the very best, like no one ever was
Good article
DeCastro will be hard to pass up, but doesn’t really fit a top need. I will not be upset if we draft him, but I will be surprised.
"Shh! Be quiet everyone. That includes me. Shh! Who’s making that noise? Oh, it’s me again…"
by Panthster on Feb 3, 2012 2:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I guess if Dre isn't there, then I'd live
I’d rather see Martin from Stanfurd, and if he fails at LT, you can shift him to G, which is generally an easier transition for failed tackles
Sounds like he would be a good pick, but like others in the thread, the only reason I’d take him is if we trade down and gather other picks. I still think going D is the way to go. Just depends on BPA I think… Hurney rarely drafts any other way.
Proud Member of Cat Scratch Reader and coiner of the (minus Bowers) meme
I'm not sure average age should really play a role in this discussion
At some of these positions it’s like comparing a 23 year old Jimmy Clausen to a 35 year old Peyton Manning and using that as the basis.
DeCastro is a monster player, and in the right circumstance I’m fine with drafting him… however taking a RG top 10 creates a host of other issues on the OL.
1. If you take a guard top 10 then you are clearly going to start him at RG- otherwise the pick was a waste.
2. Now you have Wharton, DeCastro, Hangartner and Bernadeau, all of whom are natural guards. MacBern should be cut, but regardless there are too many cooks in the kitchen.
3. You’re relying yet again on Jeff Otah to be an injury free, starting RT. 4/32 games in the last two years tells me this isn’t the way to go.
I’m still of the feeling that DeCastro would be an amazing luxury, but I don’t know if we have the room for luxuries.
Wharton will be a cap casualty this offseason.
That or they will have to restructure his deal. Having said that though, I think they will have Schwartz and Hangartner as the 2 starting guards. I agree MacBern should be cut, but I thought he was a free agent, or is he a RFA?
With a name like Lesbian I have to be awesome!
by Lesbian Montgomery on Feb 3, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
I Was Shocked That ProFootballFocus.com Rated Bernadeau So Highly
They rated OG Mackenzy Bernadeau at a +3.4, on 125 snaps, in 2011. The only higher rated Panthers Free Agents were MLB Dan Connor at +4.8 (on 477 snaps), and TE Jeremy Shockey at +3.6 (on 547 snaps). The lowest Panthers rating went OLB Jordan Senn at -8.5 (on 403 snaps), probably because of his very weak pass defense.
www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/12/2012-free-agent-tracker
by PanthersRoar on Feb 3, 2012 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
Proving that statistical analysis doesn't work with American Football.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
False
It proves that there’s high amounts of variance in small sample sizes, which is a near-universal truth.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Feb 4, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Ah that old adage.
Hear that a lot in baseball (where statistical analysis DOES work).
The cry of ‘small sample size’ makes me chuckle at this point.
"Nah, you look like Elijah Wood." - danmerqury
Well you can rebut it if you'd like
But I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t hold true.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Feb 4, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
Proves a high amount of variance in websites too...
Simply put, I don’t trust PFF anymore. Their advanced metrics have huge variances from any other site that do advanced statistical analysis.
There are always some slight changes, but nothing the likes of PFF vs the rest
And none of those sites can take the place of watching it with your own two eyes.
I know, easier said than done.
We need a nose tackle.
I really like our offensive line
We will be in the top 3 rushing again next year. You can count on that. Hangartner is really underrated and he is very intelligent for a lineman (almost perfect score on wonderlic)
I’d rather keep him another year and draft a BAMF on the defense so that we can at least slow down brees just enough for our offense to outscore him.
The sacks issue can be fixed in the off season and quite a bit of it has to do with the fact that we have a rookie mobile QB who didn’t throw the ball away much or would run out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage. Next season will be beautiful (although our new logo won’t be)
I like what DeCastro brings to the table, but I don't see the Panthers going that way.
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
























