As Panther fans, we’ve developed an extremely high level of expectation from our first round picks over the last ten years because, frankly, Marty Hurney and company have essentially nailed almost every one of those picks. As the 2012 NFL draft continues to creep closer and closer, we can only imagine what lies in store for the Panthers. After losing the coin flip Friday morning, I thought that it would be relevant to take a quick look at the results of the past ten years of drafting at the number eight and nine spots.
Each of the players below received a grade according to how well they’ve fared since entering the league. Of the twenty players, only one was able to garner HOF status from me, while eleven guys were determined to be above average, two were deemed average, four below average, one TBD(for obvious reasons), and only one was labeled a bust. Eight players were given both a To Be Determined grade and a current status grade because I felt like it was too early to hand out a final grade. Of the twenty players, twelve were given permanent grades because I didn’t feel like they could do anything more to move a step up or down in my grading system. Join me after the jump to take a look at this breakdown.
2002 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
|
2003 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Fame
|
2004 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Average
|
2005 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
|
2006 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
|
2007 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bust
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Average
|
2008 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Average
TBD
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average
TBD
|
2009 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average TBD
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average TBD
|
2010 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average TBD
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below Average TBD
|
2011 NFL Draft
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
|
TBD
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
|
|
|
Above Average TBD
|
After looking at these players and their grades, let’s go a step further in our analysis. Discarding any of the players that were given a TBD, we will now take the time to compare and contrast the eights versus the nines. As previously mentioned, there were twelve players with final grades: Six each of the number eight and nine selections. Of the six # 8 picks, four were above average, one was average, and another was a bust. Among the six # 9 selections, one is a hall of famer (potential), three above average, and two below average.
To be honest, I don’t think there is much to be gained from this exercise. It certainly isn’t going to give us some accurate prediction of what the Panthers will end up with at the number nine spot (of course they could trade back and this study would become even more irrelevant ). I guess the only interesting findings of any note that I could glean from this overview was that the Panthers are more likely to acquire an above average player than a below average player with the # 9 pick. Also, the odds show that it is even more unlikely to pick a hall-of-famer or a bust at this particular position. I guess we can always hope for the former, and with Marty Hurney running the show, we can rest assured that he will bring in an exciting new first round addition that we can all be proud of as the Carolina Panthers move into their next stage of existence: The "Anything's Possibuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuul" Age. I have a good feeling that we will be just fine. How about you?
Poll
Provided we keep the pick, how confident are you that Hurney and company will bring in a stud player with the # 9 overall selection?
Very Confident- All of the top ten talents are too good to miss on the pick, but either way, I'm very confident that Hurney will pick the Best Player Available. (163 votes)
Confident- There will be at least a couple of below average players in the top ten, but Hurney will make the right choice. (224 votes)
Neutral- Not confident or doubtful either way. (42 votes)
Doubtful-There will be at least a couple of below average players in the top ten, and I'm afraid Hurney will make the wrong choice. (19 votes)
Very Doubtful-Our string of luck in the first round is about to end because there are a couple of busts in the first round, and we will end up with one of them. (5 votes)
453 total votes


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