How Bad Was The Carolina Panthers Defense/Special Teams In 2011?

by James Dator on Jan 9, 2012 7:48 PM EST

Piggy backing off this morning's post I thought it would be prudent to look at the deficiencies we saw in 2011.

There were times during the 2011 season that the Panthers defense looked like it was putting it all together, but these moments were but a brief respite from the worst defensive season in team history. With so many players on IR it's no wonder the Panthers were 25th against the run, and 28th against the pass... but far more concerning is the Panthers' DVOA, or 'Defense adjusted Value Over Average'. This metric normalizes team performance for an NFL season and gives each team an even playing field based on looking at their entire 2011 season.

This advanced charting is far too complicated for me to keep track of, but thankfully the fine folks at Football Outsiders have done it for us. The result: Worse than you ever could have imagined. To understand these stats in context imagine if a team averaged 300 yards of offense for the season, yet your defense allowed them to gain 330 yards; this would give the team a defensive DVOA of 10%, as they allowed 10% more yards than that team's average. This is extrapolated over all factors, 1st downs, scoring, 3rd down stop rate etc.

The 2011 Panthers? 20.1%

This was the worst defense in the NFL, and 1.3% worse than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who ranked 31st. Just how bad this is can't really be quantified. Having a full 16 game season and having them all average 20% better is serious cause for alarm. However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel, last season in 2010 the defensive DVOA was 1.8%, 16th in the NFL. What remains to be seen is how much of a role Jon Beason plays in that DVOA difference, or (gasp) that Dick Marshall may have been more valuable than we gave him credit for.

More after the jump

It's easy to point the finger at the often maligned DTs and their mediocre run stopping as the reason for the tumble this season, and while it was bad (allowing 0.7 YPC more in 2011) it was the pass defense that was even uglier. Even without Chris Gamble for a portion of the 2010 season look at the difference in pass defense.

2010: Allowed 6.9 yards per attempt, 45 passes of 20+ yards and 7 passes of 40+ yards

2011: Allowed 8.4 yards per attempt, 52 passes of 20+ yards and 11 passes of 40+ yards

Moreover, the Panthers allowed a mind-numbingly terrible QB rating against of 98.3 this season, compared to 81.0 a year ago. This, despite playing three rookie QBs (Gabbert, Yates, Ponder) and a backup (Johnson). We're all well aware of the struggles of Captain Munnerlyn and Sherrod Martin this season, but it goes beyond just two players.

The story is equally bad on special teams, where the Panthers were (yet again) 32nd in the league with a -5.4% (here positive numbers are better). This means that all 16 teams we faced played 5% better in their kick and punt return games, than we managed- conversely their coverage units were 5% better when playing us. Again, this problem goes far beyond one or two players.

If there's a positive to take away from Football Outsiders ratings it's that the Panthers offense is indeed as potent as we thought, as they were 4th in the NFL with an offensive DVOA of 23%. However, it's here where we see a giant jump between us, and the Patriots are Packers (rated 29th and 24th in defense respectively). The Patriots were 3rd on offense with a DOVA of 36.8%, and a defense of 17.9%.

So how do we become the Patriots? Take turnovers and takeaways off the board because they don't play a role here in DVOA. In order to become a 13-3 team like New England, which I feel is the most logical next step because we're not getting San Fran's defense overnight, we need to improve our offensive efficiency by 13.8%, and our defensive efficiency by 2.2%.

Panthers fans, I ask you: What needs to be done to increase these efficiencies? Is Jon Beason and company enough to become 2.2% better on defense, or will a second year Cam Newton with a full offseason to prepare increase scoring and therefore offensive efficiency by 13.8%?

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Comments

I really agree with all the points you have made with these 2 post.

We are just not good on defense plain and simple. I only can dream of this team getting some real playmakers on the defensive side of the ball just like we did when we drafted Cam for the offense. My dream is our defense has some rabid dogs on the defense that Rivera has to keep leashed up right before game day then he turns them loose on the opposing team. Reaking havoc all over the field. Players that are physical and send opposing offense’s a message of pure fear. One can only dream for the future. Go Panthers

by Smokewagon on Jan 9, 2012 8:05 PM EST reply actions

no credit is too much for dick marshall

He was utter balls. I don’t buy this ’we’ll be soooo much better when beast etc are back and our defensive nightmare will be solved’ argument. We’ll be better yes, but how much better will we be with those guys back and investment in our defence combined?

When you build a team around a qb, you are asking for trouble – see 2011 colts for further information. I want some mean ass sucka’s on our d and then I pity the fools that think they can mess with the panthers…. Or something like that

Save us Pilares

by LimeyPanther on Jan 9, 2012 8:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions

My smack talk game needs some work

Save us Pilares

by LimeyPanther on Jan 9, 2012 8:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Your smack talk was still better than the Saints fans and their "Who Dat" crap.

STICK THE KNIFE IN AND TURN IT!!!!!

by MrBernz on Jan 10, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions

Mr T. endorses this comment.

I like to think of myself as a one-man wolfpack.

by ERL on Jan 10, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

(and no, he ain’t gettin’ on no plane.)

I like to think of myself as a one-man wolfpack.

by ERL on Jan 10, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

When you build a team around a qb you are asking for trouble?

Lolwhut

by mh420800 on Jan 9, 2012 9:14 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions

lol

I meant when you focus on just getting weapons for your qb at the expense of actual needs then you’re asking for trouble… Follow? The team can’t just be about cam we need a good defence too (was my point)

Save us Pilares

by LimeyPanther on Jan 9, 2012 10:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

also what?

You are only in trouble if you then forget about the rest of the team like atlanta and give up the farm just to add another target or if it isnt clear cut that you have an ideal starter and I think it is pretty clear we do.

by allthatremainsstillowns on Jan 9, 2012 9:23 PM EST reply actions

next year will be better

we obviously didnt get much of an off season to do alot with the d since offense was at the time a bigger issue. It will get more attention now just hope that we get something useful with that extremely disapointing as of late second round pick

by allthatremainsstillowns on Jan 9, 2012 9:26 PM EST reply actions

you act like the two can't work together...

There’s no reason to assume that the “focus” has to be split between the offense and the defense when it comes to preparation. That’s just folly. The two can be thought of as two individual units who operate as such.

by aceofsween on Jan 10, 2012 9:11 AM EST up reply actions

People like Chris Cooley of the Redskins blame the lockout for all the injuries

Let’s hope that is the reason for the 18 players we had to put on IR. I’m not very optimistic about certain injuries like Davis and Edwards. I doubt the team will wait on them for the team’s future. Looks like RR and gang are highly optimistic about Beason, Otah,and Gettis. Honestly, Otah and Gettis can postpone our need to continue to build around Cam for one more year. Man, I told myself I wouldn’t talk about the draft until the combine. But we really need to find another DB, DT, and LB in this draft itself to make our defense at least NFL worthy.

by Atlantapanther on Jan 9, 2012 10:39 PM EST reply actions

To put it in just three words...

We were “really fucking bad” (pardon my French) on defense this past year. We should spend what money we have this offseason on a handful of solid players on defense, plus special teamers. If we supplement that with a good draft, we’ll be sitting pretty.

Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91

by Jake Humphrey on Jan 9, 2012 11:16 PM EST reply actions

Silver lining

No where for defense to go but up.

And of course, next year will be better.
anyhow, seriously …….
Thanks for two very good posts James.

What if we got 1st round pick that was the defensive equivalent of Cam Newton? I know lightning doesn’t strike twice but think about the intangibles that one offensive player added to the Panthers? What if? We have to roll the dice to see if one player can make the difference on defense that one player made on our offense. I have way more faith in Lafell and Gettis than i do in anyone not named Chris Gamble in our secondary.

by Relax on Jan 10, 2012 1:13 AM EST reply actions

I kept bringing up Richard Marshall last year

No one really wanted to talk about it and just dismissed him as bad. When it comes down to it though, he wasn’t nearly as bad as advertised. Or perhaps it’s better to say that the effect of him leaving was worse than having him stay. Marshall leaving left us with Munnerlyn as our #2 CB. That did not work out so well. Munnerlyn is a nickle back, that’s just the way it is. And I think that Richard Marshall out performs Munnerlyn when they’re both in the #2 CB spot, even if Munnerlyn seems to be overall better when they were both on the field.

by aceofsween on Jan 10, 2012 9:08 AM EST reply actions

Also, you say take turnovers off the board but...

I think that is the only difference between us. If turnovers aren’t included in DVOA, then the difference between us and the Patriots is just that: the turnovers.

by aceofsween on Jan 10, 2012 9:13 AM EST reply actions

As for the last few sentances...

I prefer to not replicated the Patriots. That team does not look like they have what it takes.

I like to think of myself as a one-man wolfpack.

by ERL on Jan 10, 2012 9:54 AM EST reply actions

Def.

I’ve said this over and over till i’am blue in the face. We have at least 4 spots on def. that have got to be addressed. The positions are in no particuliar order:

Run stuffing fat nose tackle
Ball hawking safety who can cover

cb
Olb who is a good tackler and can cover TE’s.

How we get them is irrelevant. Either through Draft, FA’s, These are positions we have to improve to make our def. decent.

by oldpanther on Jan 10, 2012 11:08 AM EST reply actions

I mean #2 cb.

by oldpanther on Jan 10, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

With Rivera's Defensive Track Record...

I can see no reason why our defense can’t be quickly improved. Maybe not a top 10 D next year, but I think it is realistic to hope for a middle of the road defense. Having guys back on the field who should have been starters WILL make a difference. From Bryan Strickland, “Carolina has never finished with a winning record when placing more than 10 players on IR. By contrast, the team’s five least painful seasons in terms of IR numbers have resulted in four playoff berths.” The injuries do matter, regardless of what some people think.

Worst case, the coaches had an excellent opportunity to evaluate the players that they have throughout the season. This was something that was cut extremely short before the season began. They’ll have a clear idea where they need to make improvements, and I have faith that this staff will do just that. With the evaluations, getting players back, and the coaches actually knowing their players next year I think the 2.2% increase in defensive efficiency could be easily attainable.

As far as offense, they should continue to improve as well. I just can’t see Cam backsliding with his work ethic. Add a few players to the depth, hopefully get some solid guys back from injury, spend more time in the offseason with this creative and explosive offense…and BAM! I don’t know if they’ll add a entire 13.8% to their offensive efficiency, or how much that even matters in the W-L column, but this offense is going to be difficult to slow down with Cam Newton under center and double trouble in the backfield.

As a whole, this team should be much improved. If not for the reasons I stated above, then how about for not having to overcome a short offseason with a new offensive scheme, new defensive scheme, new coaches, new QB, and a ridiculous amount of injuries.

Who isn’t excited to see what this team can do with a normal offseason, in Cam’s second year? Oh yea, it’s going to be a good year.

by LuvMeSomePanthers! on Jan 10, 2012 8:42 PM EST reply actions