Do's and Don'ts: Divisional Playoffs Edition
Hello, I am new to the community and a long time Carolina Panther fan, blogger, and Twitterer before I stumbled upon Cat Scratch Reader. Where have you been all my life!
This is my weekly blog, Do's and Don'ts. Hope you enjoy and I hope to blog more over the offseason.
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Do: Continue to develop Cam Newton as a vertical passer.
Don't: Rush him.
All winning playoff teams relied on a heavy dose of passing. Just look at the stats of these quarterbacks over the weekend:
Drew Brees: 40-63, 462yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
Tom Brady: 26-34, 363yds, 6 TD, 1 INT
Eli Manning: 21-33, 330yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Alex Smith: 24-42, 299yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
Aaron Rodgers: 26-46, 264yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
No game managers here! They all had at least 33 attempts and an interception (with the exception of Smith). While it is nice to have a running game, it is no longer the reason teams win playoff games. Cam Newton needs to continue to develop his aerial game, even it means more interceptions to learn how to do so. Though critics will be quick to point out that Carolina won more when Newton's passing yards were less, throwing merely 200 yards is not going to win a close playoff game. Notice Smith the passer had to win the game, not Frank Gore, the runner. (And I realize the irony of Smith's incredible TD run in the closing minutes.)
All these quarterbacks also needed years to develop. Despite Newton's "best rookie ever" campaign, the fan base and front office need to continue to be patient, as even the best quarterbacks currently in the playoffs took 2 years or more to become the "elite" players they are today.
The front office needs to continue to surround Newton with offensive line and pass catching talent. Which leads to the next Do and Don't after the jump...
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Do: Use the tight ends. A lot.
Don't: Go to Legadu Naanee in key moments.
After watching Saturday's playoff games, I noticed how dynamic the tight end position has become. Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez were significant difference makers in their playoff games. They were "matchup nightmares," and their quarterbacks continued to go to them in clutch situations.
I saw every Carolina Panther game this season, and though Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey put up good numbers, I really believe that Newton did not take advantage of their abilities enough. (That will come in time.) They have shown in the past to be nightmarish matchups themselves and can be as explosive as the tight ends above. Newton and the offense need to trust them in key situations, rather than Legadu Naanee, who Newton seemed to trust irrationally over the tight ends in critical situations.
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Do: Draft a first round pass rusher.
Don't: Draft a wide receiver in the 1st round.
With the exception of New England, all playoff teams remaining had an incredible pass rush and punishing linebackers at the point of attack. (Oh, I can't wait for a healthy Jon Beason to return.)
What's even more interesting is that each had an up and coming 1st round pass rusher: Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Jason Pierre-Paul, Cameron Jordan, and Von Miller. If this is any indication, a worthwhile 1st round investment should be made in a pass rusher. (On a side note, I noticed that Michael Crabtree was the only top-10 drafted WR starting this weekend. Hakeem Nicks and Torrey Smith were drafted very late in the first round.)
While much can change because of free agency, the combine, and pro days, it seems to me that a pass rush needs to be a 1st round draft pick priority. Though they are flashy and exciting, the Panthers don't need wide receivers Justin Blackmon and Alshon Jeffery. If they think DE/OLB Mercilus Whitney, DT Michael Brockers, or DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw are the best pass rushers and are a reach at eighth/ninth pick, they should seriously consider trading down for more picks. (See their history of success when trading down!)
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Don't: Giveaway the ball.
Do: Take it away.
Weekend stat from @BaxFootballGuru: 8 winning teams with 7 combined turnovers, 8 losing teams with 20. #simple
Enough said. If a team gives the ball over on turnovers, they are watching the big games from home. We've seen the Newton statistic over and over again (Carolina was 0-10 when he turned the ball over, 6-0 when he didn't), so I'm sure we all already understand how important it is for him to hold onto the ball. Miraculously, there were zero rushing fumbles lost this year. But the WR/TE crew were responsible for 4 lost fumbles, 2 by Steve Smith, and 1 each by Olsen and Shockey. Needless to say, ball security is something the 2012 Carolina Panthers should improve on.
Conversely, the Panthers coaching staff should (if they don't already) emphasize takeaways as the key to winning big games. It helps explain why the Panthers lost so many close games this season, as they were constantly coming up short or struggling to hold leads after giving the ball away. (You can argue they were the reasons we won the close Houston and Indianapolis games.) If there's any common thread to the seasons in which Carolina made the playoffs, it is that all those teams won the turnover battle. This year, the Panthers were a measly, but respectable +1 in turnover margin this year.
If the current roster can't force takeaways, the front office should draft, trade for, or sign defense/special teams playmakers that have a penchant for takeaways. Realistic or not, I would love to see them make a run at the following defensive ends in the offseason:
Free Agents:
DE Cliff Avril: 6 forced fumbles, 1 interception, 11 sacks
DE Jeremy Mincey: 4 FF, 1 INT, 8 sacks
Draft Prospects:
DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus: 9 FF, 16 sacks
Although I love Greg Hardy and Thomas Keiser, they are still a little young for the big time, and would make for great rotational players.
PantherEdgar
Twitter: @PantherEdgar
The content of these posts are those of the user/fan making the post only
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Comments
Good stuff man. Welcome to CSR!
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Thanks Bruce!
Good work with your posts as well.
by pantheredgar on Jan 16, 2012 1:02 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
and hopefully we can keep growing with members with some since like this. no more CO crazies.
"Don't tell me about the pain, just bring me the baby" Cam Newton
by braves&panthers4ever on Jan 16, 2012 4:57 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Good perspective on the team.
Hit the nail on the head with the pass rushers. Just like you pointed out with the wide receivers playing this weekend that 1st round talent at that position doesn’t equate to a teams success. All the young pass rushers were all drafted in the top 20 of the first round. QB’s can’t through to their 1st round receivers if they are laying flat on their back. Great write up.
Yep, that's right.
Also looks like in years past, the teams that go on to the Super Bowl tend to have the “hottest” pass rush. It was why last year it was the Packers (with Cullen Jenkins) on a roll, and the Eagles and the end of the 2011 season, though they just missed the playoffs. Only appropriate 49ers and Giants meet in the conference championship.
Also might explain why Patriots haven’t had a playoff win in a while. They’re missing Richard Seymour on defense.
by pantheredgar on Jan 16, 2012 1:07 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I like Naanee...
just not in the clutch. I just think Smith and Olsen are better matchups to exploit than “LA” in key situations.
by pantheredgar on Jan 16, 2012 7:40 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Then why like him?
Unless we are up a few TDs late in the game, every reception is a clutch reception.
Disagree...
Yes, every reception is important, but not clutch. A catch in the 1st quarter game is way different than a 4th down catch in the 4th quarter. LaFell had the big moments, not Naanee. Liked his flexibility on offense, but not a go-to person when we absolutely need a catch.
by pantheredgar on Jan 17, 2012 8:43 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I'm guessing you didn't watch alot of games this season
Olsen was far from clutch. I like him but he needs to be a more consistent reciever
CAM....CAAAAAAAAM
by CamNewtonSBMVP on Jan 17, 2012 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Watched them all...
Olsen was hardly relied on during key 3rd down conversions or in the 4th quarter. I can think of a couple times (e.g., @Arizona) where we went to Naanee and he didn’t convert when we needed to. Yes, Olsen fumbled and dropped his share of passes too, but which games did we lean on him to make an important catch like we did Naanee?
by pantheredgar on Jan 17, 2012 8:45 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Enjoyed the post. Rec'd
Don’t agree with force fitting a pass rusher into the Panther’s draft strategy if the value isn’t there. I haven’t seen anyone in this year’s draft class that is a can’t miss prospect.
"I may be old but...eh, I forget the rest!"
I agree...
as long as we upgrade our front 7 with quality free agents or first round talent. I can’t watch this defense flail around and feebly attempt to slow Saints or Falcons high powered offenses for another year.
by pantheredgar on Jan 16, 2012 8:08 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
What is the obsession with Whitney Mercilus?
While I understand the need to beef up our defensive front, this is the one name that has stirred constant debate. There is still a lot of time before the draft and anything can happen, but in my opinion, if any defensive player taken early will either be a DT or CB. Now, I’m not sure where Mercilus ranks amongst pro scouts, but with the likes of Brockers, Kirkpatrick and even Coples (shudder), I don’t see such a pick happening.
Other than that, good insight and welcome to the CSR community.
Integrity first. Service before self. Excellence in all you do. -- USAF Core Values
by Disciple of Carolina on Jan 16, 2012 4:33 PM EST reply actions
I get excited about his...
ability to change a game with his tackles for loss, sacks, and forced fumbles. After seeing this weekends games, I miss the turnover making ability of Julius Peppers. Our D has really been lacking in that area.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for best player available. So if Brockers or Kirkpatrick lead us to more turnovers or 3 and outs, I’m all in.
Let’s also not forget that we should have full faith in the front office in first round picks. (Post first round picks, not so much.) They’ve pretty much hit on every first round pick (e.g., Beason, Stewart, Williams, Newton, Otah, Gross, Gamble, Davis, Peppers) and have an incredible success rate compared to the majority of teams. For us to nitpick whoever they pick based on our fanboy opinions would be short sighted.
by pantheredgar on Jan 16, 2012 8:02 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions 1 recs
I totally get what you are say
But what if if we got that big nasty DT to take the focal point off our ends? I think Fua and McClaine will bounce back and build off their rookie year. Plus, we will have the returning veteran presence of Edwards in the mix provided he is healthy. Now if we went DE, he may be a look but maybe in later rounds. I was looking at Scouts, Inc on ESPN and Mercilus isn’t among the first round projections. Interestingly enough, a lot if mock drafts have us addressing the offensive line in the first round. If you can, provide me with some draft info or ranking for Mercilus. My interest is kind of peaked.
Integrity first. Service before self. Excellence in all you do. -- USAF Core Values
by Disciple of Carolina on Jan 16, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
Bring on the nasty DT.
I would want a DT also. Not sure McClain and Fua are good enough though. Seemed like Neblett and Kearse were more effective when the rookies went on IR. But a good DT is almost necessary. Almost all the playoff teams had a dominant one: Raji, Wilfork, Ngata, Justin Smith, etc. If McClain/Fua turn out to be great, I’d be a happy man. Just haven’t seen it yet.
Here’s the research I found on Whitney:
http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2012wmercilus.php
I’m no scout, or even a master of understanding scheme, so I personally have no idea what his true value is. Just going by reports and stats, he seems like an exciting option. I trust whomever the front office ultimately settles upon.
by pantheredgar on Jan 17, 2012 9:06 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I don't think that we can give up on Fua and McClain just yet.
Both were rookies last year, and were thrust into the starting role after an abbreviated training camp. Much like the situation with Cam Newton, this year was more of a learning experience for our young guys at DT. And It was only a couple of years ago BJ Raji was considered a bust, and Justin Smith was only a rotational player. Time and experience will serve to benefit McClain, Fua, Neblett, Kearse, Shirley, etc.
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
by Son of a Newton on Jan 17, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Me too.
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
by Son of a Newton on Jan 18, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Even if McClain develops into a one dimensional pass rushing DT
He’ll still be worth keeping around.
I don't always fail, but when I do...
I do it awesomely.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jan 19, 2012 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
I'm with you on faith in the front office...
At the time many of those first round picks were shocks to me, but the vast majority of them have been FANTASTIC over time. I believe the front office here really does their homework, and will pick the best for us out of our “top 3” defensive choices so far (or perhaps someone not even on our radar).
"You know the new iPhone? It’s faster, more powerful and smarter. It’s revolutionary. Why can’t the quarterback be like that? Why can’t you be a big, tall, fast, quick, strong, smart, mobile quarterback who’s unstoppable?"
-Cam Newton
by carolinapillpusher on Jan 17, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Nice work, sir - high quality input.
Welcome to CSR; glad to have you here.
Really enjoyed this post
Welcome to CSR. As mentioned above I don’t think any of the linemen (defensive) in this draft are worth a top 10 pick. I also think the LA showed how good he could be as the season went on. I don’t think he will be back with us (probably would want too much $) but I do think his combination of size and speed could make a very solid #2 WR. He just has to make more of those difficult catches he began making towards the end of the season.
"One step at a time"
by mcdonaldwr on Jan 16, 2012 7:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I disagree. Rush him.
I believe Cam Newton can run for 1,000 yards next season.
ACC Championship Member Brandon Thompson is the new Jacoby Ford. You better pick him Panthers or you will be doomed to relive the 2010 season over and over again in the Twilight Zone.
Clemson 2011 ACC Champions! Look forward to doing it again next year! :D
by Revshawn on Jan 16, 2012 10:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Risk factor
When you put Cam on that expectation, the risk factor for injury goes multiple times. Not worth it. we have enough weapons to get our 1000 yards rushing and he adds a 10 and a 20 here and there.
Yes, he can...
But why should he? That’s what DeAngelo is getting paid the big bucks to do.
by pantheredgar on Jan 17, 2012 8:47 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I disagree with one thing
When cam was throwing those 200 yard games, the offense was so balanced it lead to very effective scoring team. We have the tools to be a very balanced yet, big play team. I mean with our run game and newton in his second year with fresh Wr’s. This will be one hell of an offensive team.
Balance worked against...
the Colts and Buccaneers of the world, but it’s not going to work against the heavyweights of the NFC. All the playoff teams won last weekend, because of a heavy dose of passing. A running game is nice to have, and is useful, but not good enough. Ask Arian Foster and the Texans.
by pantheredgar on Jan 17, 2012 8:58 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I have to disagree
While you are correct that this past weekend it was a passing offense that won the games, which of the playoff teams have the triple threat rushing attack that the Panthers have? I believe that with a solid (if not spectacular) defense, outstanding rushing offense, and Cam’s ability to throw the ball for 400 yds then we are in better position offensively to beat any of the teams in the playoffs this year. We can adjust to what the game dictates if need be. This year we were just too young all around to make the proper adjustments but balance is still the key.
Welcome to CSR and great write up.
by Brandon Beaver on Jan 17, 2012 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
No playoff team would've wanted to face our offence.
Problem was, any of them would have loved to have faced our defense.
Once we improve that unit, and can expect to hold other teams to under 24 a game, we can compete against anybody.
Balance is good in theory...
but bad in practice. When was the last “balanced” attack offense to make it to the Super Bowl? It’s always pass, pass, pass. Can’t even remember the last big name running back to make it to the Super Bowl. (Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks?) The majority of Super Bowl contenders in the last decade had decent running attacks (Stephen Davis(!), Edgerrin James, Corey Dillon, Pierre Thomas, James Starks) and an above average passing attack. I’d rather they develop an identity and be a master of one trade than average at all.
by pantheredgar on Jan 17, 2012 8:57 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Good read, thanks and welcome aboard
You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is 'never try'. -Homer Simpson
by Swamp Panther on Jan 16, 2012 11:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Wow...Zero rushing fumbles.
I certainly couldn’t think of any drops this year, but I didn’t know there were none at all. Outstanding.
I shouldn’t really be surprised; Williams is top notch in ball security (6 fumbles in 6 years!).
"People are gonna respect the Panthers, and I want what I do as a quarterback to be scary. I want people to be in fear. I want it, and I’m gonna get it."
- Carolina Panthers Franchise Quarterback
That is truly an astounding statistic.
I wonder how many times, if ever, that’s been accomplished.
That's 6 Fumbles too many.
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
by Son of a Newton on Jan 17, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Trading Down
I hate when people say trade down. While it may be a good idea, a team cant just decide it doesnt wanna draft 8th and say we are trading down and it is so. Nobody in this draft, unless a crazy fall similar to Aaron Rodgers, is worth trading up to nine. So stop with the panthers should trade down because its not gonna happen just because its the best move.
Yes, it takes two to tango. Yet, I can envision a dozen scenarios where a team could look to trade up...
You talk about
a crazy fall similar to Aaron Rodgers; and I think RGIII (if Skins get Flynn) and Trent Richardson as two players that just might have the “drool factor” for a number of teams to want to jump up. You never know, and it would be the best move for the Panthers, should the opportunity arise.
So much to be done, and so few people willing to do it for me.
Agree with Rick
You never know. Jags traded up for Gabbert in similar spot last year. All it takes is one sucker. (And usually it’s us trading up for the likes of Everette Brown and Armanti Edwards.) Plus with the new CBA, it should be much easier to trade.
by pantheredgar on Jan 17, 2012 9:02 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Yes and NO.....
Do: Continue to develop Cam Newton as a vertical passer.
Don’t: Rush him.
Yep… Agree.. : Get Cam more weapons that can stretch the field and create mismatch
Do: Use the tight ends. A lot.
Don’t: Go to Legadu Naanee in key moments.
Not really….. : We don’t have a TE that will create Mismatch.. Honestly we dont. Greg olson is ok. but he’s not the likes of Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski that can snatch the ball from the air and intimidate opposing players..
Don’t: Giveaway the ball.
Do: Take it away.
Yep. I agree. I’m sure Newton knows the key reason Saints lost to 49ERS for the most part is because of TURNOVERS. You can’t have 4 or 5 turnovers and expect to win games. Won’t HAPPEN!!!
Do: Draft a first round pass rusher.
Don’t: Draft a wide receiver in the 1st round.
Yes and NO. Do we need a Pass rusher first? Yes. But at the same time we also need a game changer WR that can grow with Newton. Apart from Smith, we don’t have a legit WR that is Young, dynamic and can stretch the field in any direction. Smith is over 32. Definately, We don’t want to be like the Rams who spent over $50 millions for a QB but chose to surround him with mediocre receivers and wonder why Sam Bradford regressed.
To think that David Gettis will just pick up from a knee injury without missing a beat in my opinion is just foolishness…. The Front Office better be wise to surround Cam with true talent in weapons. Cam has sent enough signals to the FE to get him more versatile and young weapon…If they don’t nobody will take the Panther serious..
Thanks for the reply.
Olsen and Shockey have proven to be dominant in the past. Why not try going to them more often? In 2009, Olsen had 60 receptions and 8 TD’s. This year Vernon Davis had 67 receptions and 6 TD’s. I think we can use Olsen similarly. Ask scouts or read the reports: he has the height, speed, and hands to create a mismatch. True, we don’t have a TE like Gronkowski or Graham, but many other teams don’t either.
A first round wide receiver is the last thing the Panthers need. Smith, Gettis, LaFell, Naanee are enough. If we really need a young game changer, maybe we look in free agency (Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson) or in the next rounds. But to spend our first pick on one would be foolish and a waste, especially if you looked at our defense. (Our offense was more than okay. Top 5!) How many high 1st round wide receivers do you see among the playoff teams? None.
by pantheredgar on Jan 18, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Sure....
I agree with you..
On a side note, I hope Olsen gets more consistent and not drop balls…I think from watching him play for the panthers, he seems to have issues with physical opposing players….He definitely runs good routes and has the speed for a TE
I think that Olsen is a matchup problem against a LB or a CB.
He runs good routes and is too fast for any LB; and, He is too massive for any CB.
Cam Newton, when a reporter asks him who will win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday: "I'll tell you Sunday."
by Son of a Newton on Jan 18, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Avril is a monster. Most O-lineman in the NFC North call him the best DL on the Lions.
Not sure he’ll still be a FA come March. But good God, franchising him would be like 20M+, IINM.
I like to think of myself as a one-man wolfpack.



























