Football Outsiders 2010 Almanac: Panthers Offensive Strategic Tendencies

FO has released their 2010 Almanac and they were kind enough to provide CSR a copy to evaluate. You can purchase a copy by following this link. I thought the 2010 season recap was pretty well stated but nothing I want to rehash yet again. What I did find interesting and in many cases reinforced many of our notions about last year's offense. See Table 1 below with my comments in italics:

Table 1: Panthers 2010 Offensive Strategic Tendencies

Run/Pass

Rank

Offense

Rank

Runs, all plays

42%

11

3+ WR

38%

31

Runs, first half

50%

1

4+ WR

7%

11

Runs, first down

54%

9

2+ TE

37%

5

Runs, second-long

46%

2

Single back

55%

22

Runs, power sit.

58%

18

Play action

21%

9

Runs, behind 2H

31%

6

Max protect

12%

11

Pass, ahead 2H

39%

24

Outside pocket

12%

16

  • The Panthers ran the ball more than any other team in the first half (50% of plays); to protect their young QBs I imagine.
  • The Panthers had the league's worst DVOA on RB runs from single-back sets (-25.3%) and the biggest difference between runs with one back (3.7 ypc) and runs with two backs (4.7 ypc). It was the second straight year that the Panthers ran much better with multiple backs in the game. I blame injuries to the offensive line for this downward trend. Getting Otak back will improve the performance of the single back sets.
  • Carolina ran more often on second-and-long than any team except for Kansas City - but they were terrible at it, gaining 4.05 yards per carry with -39.1% DVOA. This was a huge drop from previous seasons; the Panthers averaged 5.52 yards per carry running on second-and-long in 2009. John Fox loves to run on 2nd and long and it led to an increase in 3rd and longs.
  • Carolina's offense was second in the league in the number of passes thrown away due to pressure. I think we've beat this horse pickle enough already.

So what differences will be see in these ranking in 2011 with Rob Chudzinski piloting the ship? We will discuss after the jump...

 

  • Though the run percent of 42% might remain the same it will be more consistent across both halves as the Panthers throw more early and hopefully run more late to hold leads...I did say hopefully.
  • The runs on 2nd and long will drop significantly and be replaced with short passes to intermediate passes or worst case scenario Newton running free.
  • I am hopeful we will see a lot more 3 WR sets, up from last season's 38%, #31 ranking. With the emergence of WR Armanti Edwards and the potential of WR Keoloha Pilares the Panthers can get production from the slot, something they were unable to do last season.
  • I think it's safe to say the Panthers will increase the amount of plays where the QB leaves the pocket from 12%. I'm optimistic is will be by design as well, instead of the QB running for his life like in 2010. Newton will probably have 5 to 10 carries a game early in the season if not all season.

What are your predictions?

Section: The Year in Quotes

I couldn't resist pulling a couple of my favorites quotes from the 2010 season:

"They talk about walk softly and carry a big stick. I love that. I agree with that 100 percent. But I guess I feel more like Babe Ruth. I'm going to walk softly, I'm going to carry that big stick, and then I'm going to point, and then I'm going to hit it over the fence."

- Jets coach Rex Ryan regurgitating his insistence that the Jets would win the Super Bowl. The ball stayed in the park.

I notice he had no similar prediction this year....Who can forget this one that yet again caused me to LMAO!

"As I mentioned last week and on Saturday's show, the factor that was going to come down to that game was the X-factor, the Cutler factor, and man, I just never thought that his tampon would fall out on na­tional TV."

- Former Packers offensive lineman Greg Koch's hygienic thoughts on Bears quarterback Jay Cutler exiting the NFC Championship Game early with a knee injury.

I don't remember this one at the time but I love it:

"No, I want to say, ‘F--k you.' And I mean that in the

most professional way."

- Broncos wide receiver Brandon Lloyd's response when asked if he wanted to say "told you so" to his three previous teams after earning his first Pro Bowl selection.

 If only you could say that in a professional way...Here's a Panther quote in the almanac:

"Don't tell my mom. She's going to want more Christ­mas presents."

- Panthers cornerback R.J. Sanford, after being pro­moted from the practice squad to the 53-man roster.

Don't go cheap on dear old mom RJ! So many to choose from but here's one last good one on the humorous side, unless your God:

Religious quote of the year

"I PRAISE YOU 24/7!!!!!! AND THIS HOW YOU DO ME!!!!! YOU EXPECT ME TO LEARN FROM THIS??? HOW???!!! ILL NEVER FORGET THIS!! EVER!!! THX THO ..."

- Bills receiver Steve Johnson questioning His Ho­liness on his Twitter account following Buffalo's 19-16 loss. Johnson dropped the would-be game winning touchdown pass in overtime.

The Almanac is 500+ plus pages of detailed info on every team including five full pages of The Year in Quotes.

Here's the full Table of Contents, again link to purchase:

Contents

Introduction v

Pregame Show vii

Statistical Toolbox xiii

The Year In Quotes xxxv

NFL Team Chapters

[List of all 32 teams removed to save space]

iii


Player Comments

Quarterbacks 262

Running Backs 298

Wide Receivers 337

Tight Ends 392

Kickers and Defense 415

College Football

Introduction and Statistical Toolbox 417

Atlantic Coast Conference 422

Big East Conference 431

Big Ten Conference 438

Big 12 Conference 449

Pac-12 Conference 458

Southeastern Conference 469

Non-AQs and Independents 479

Further Research

Introducing the Blind Side Project 490

Quarterbacks Will Make You Jump, Jump 494

The Value of Pass Pressure 496

Home-Field Advantage 499

Rookie Projections 502

Top 25 Prospects 505

Fantasy Appendix 510

Statistical Appendix 516

Author Bios 532

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