Poll - What's The Panthers Worst Draft Of All Time?
by PanthersRoar on Sep 29, 2011 3:41 PM EDT
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PrintIn James post yesterday about OG Duke Robinson being cut, the post sidetracked a little into the topic of which was the Panthers worst draft of all time, and I felt that deserves it's own poll.
It also raised some very interesting questions about just what makes a good draft, when should you grade a draft (at the time of the draft, or a few years later), do fans unjustly expect perfection with every pick, are fans blinded by homerism (falling for the clubs spin on their draft) that causes them to overvalue their teams draft picks, and can 1 player alone make a good draft, or does it need to be good top to bottom?
Here's a very interesting stat from Charley Casserley about the percentage chance that players drafted in each round will be a success in the NFL.
1st Round - 75%
2nd Round - 50%
3rd Round - 30%
4th & 5th Rounds - 25%
6th & 7th Rounds - 9%
These numbers point out just how un-realistic it is to expect a team to hit a homerun on every draft pick. The only round of the draft with a better than a 50% chance of success are the 1st round picks. After the 2nd round (where the odds are only 50/50) the odds are better that any draft pick will be a failure than a success.
When is the proper time to grade a teams draft? My Thought is that it's at the time of the draft, and that at any time in the future, no matter how hard you might try to avoid it, your opinions will be influenced by how those players have performed in the NFL, something that no one could have known with absolute 100% certainty at the time of the draft. Also, a players NFL performance can be greatly afffected by things that couldn't have been foreseen at the time of the draft, like injuries, how they fit the teams system, a players production doesn't always stay the same from 1 team to another (WR David Boston dropped out of sight after he was traded, while TE Wesley Walls production exploded after being traded to the Panthers), or if a player is just stuck behind more experienced talent on the depth chart.
After the first few rounds of the draft, most fans generally know very little about the players drafted by their team, other than what info their team spins out to them, which leaves them beliving that every pick is huge draft steal that should have gone much earlier than they were drafted. This years draft offered a great example of that in 6th round pick, #166 OLB Lawrence Wilson (6-0 7/8, 229, a slow Combine 4.75-40, but a good Pro Day 4.56-40, which is closest to his real speed?) of UConn. Everyone seemed to be thrilled with this undersized OLB with questionable speed throughout the summer, but he didn't survive the final roster cut, in favor of UDFA 2010 Practice Squad LB Thomas Williams. I believe Wilson was signed to the Practice Squad after clearing waivers, but in a show of just how little he's valued by the Panthers, after starting LB's Davis and Beason were lost for the season, they passed over Wilson again, signing MLB Jason Phillips.
Can only 1 player make a good draft? 2011 is the year to find out, because 2011 is basically a 1 man draft, a 1 man band show of Cam and the Nobodys. Certainly no one can now fault the selection of Cam Newton at #1, but after that the 2011 Panthers draft goes rapidly down hill. In the 3rd round the Panthers drafted the 2 least productive DT's in the whole draft, with #97 NT Sione Fua having the fewest 2010 senior season tackles of any drafted DT, and #65 DT Terrell McClain, with the 2nd fewest tackles. Both Fua and McClain project as just career backups, who are forced to start only because of an overall lack of talent at their positions. In the 4th round they selected CB Brandon Hogan at #98, a very good talent, but injured, and unlikely to play as a rookie, which might should have tipped the scales toward CB's #113 Chimdi Chekwa or #131 Davon House who are healthy. In the 5th round WR Kealoha Pilares at #132 who missed the Combine With an injury, and was really only noticed after his great Pro Day, just a couple of weeks before the draft. Pilares could be very good in time, but so far has a high ankle sprain, and hasn't played. In the 6th round at #166 the allready discussed OLB Lawrence Wilson (I would have totally missed on this pick as well, picking MLB Mario Harvey 5-10 7/8, 257, 4.43-40, with 8.5 sacks in 2010, who went undrafted) and at #203 C/G Zach Williams who's on IR, at the time 6 higher rated C's were still on the board. At #244 in the 2nd round OT Lee Ziemba, who is behind UDFA OT Bell. So far the Panthers have gotten absolutely nothing from their draft picks after the 3rd round, with only 3 tackles (all solo) by Fua and 4 tackles (2 solo) by McClain so far. A part of that is that after NT Phil Taylor at #21, all the draft's other NT's only project as career backups, but I ranked McClain behind at least 4 other DT's, 2 4-3 DT/3-4 DE's Allen Bailey (#86 Chiefs) and Christian Ballard (#106 Vikings), with 4-3 DT's Drake Nevis #87-Colts (13 tackles, 6 solo, in 2011) and Jurrell Casey #77-Titans (8 tackles, 5 solo in 2011). I aslo prefered NT Chris Neild (5 tackles, 3 solo, and 1.5 sacks in 2011), who was drafted at #253 to the Redskins (who I would have taken at #203) over Fua. At #253 in the 7th round I would have picked C Ryan Barthelomew rather than Ziemba, but he didn't survive the Ravens final roster cuts.
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I'm still pissed about Chekwa being passed up.
Pilares I’m betting will be a huge steal for us. Hogan may eventually, but with him the Panthers reached huge on him when you consider the injury. The L. Wilson pick I’m still laughing about, I’m not sure what they saw in him. If you have slow outright speed, then you better be quick…Wilson’s highlights weren’t showing much of either.
Selecting Neild would’ve been great in the 6th/7th, oh well. I guess we need to have some holes for next years draft.
I agree with you on the reaches for McClain and Fua. It’s still early but it sucks seeing some of these 3rd rounders performing.
Agreed on Hogan
I am not sure they did their full homework on his injury before they got him.
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I See Mayn Of You Picked Drafts In The Last Few Years, So For Anyone Unfamilar I'll Post Those Recent Drafts
2010"
48. QB Jimmy Clausen – It was a total surprise that he fell this far. I believe the Panthers expected Clausen to go in the 1st round, and had decided to draft WR Brandoon LaFell at #48. I had hopped that DT Lamar Houston would last till #48, but he went to the Raiders at #44.
78. WR Brandon LaFell – I believe the Panthers were thrilled that LaFell was still available at #78. I would have gone for DT Earl Mitchell (6-2, 298, 4.75-40).
89. WR Armanti Edwards – This was the unexpecteddraft day trade. I liked Edwards a lot, but not before the 6th round. I wouldn’t have done any better, probably going for WR Taylor Price (the #90 pick), who had been expected to be a late 2nd round pick.
124. DE/OLB Eric Nrowood -This pick came as the result of trading the #112 pick to the Jets, for their #124 and #198 (WR David Gettis) picks. I hated this wasted pick. They could have stayed where they were and drafted pass rushing DT Geno Atkins (#120 Bengals), or made the trade and drafted S Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (6-0 1/4, 207, 4.30-40) (#126 Cowboys).
175. DR Greg Hardy – Who can argue with this pick, before the draft I had even hoped that Hardy Would last till the Panthers 4th round pick.
198. WR David Gettis – You can’t question this pick now.
202. S Jordan Pugh – A pretty good pick that came as a surprise.
204. QB Tony Pike – Why? They didn’t need Pike after drafting Clausen. I believe the Panthers had targeted Pike as their QB of the future, and planned to draft him around the 4th round, so when he was still available at #204 they thought he was the best player available. They really should have drafted MLB Jamar Chaney (6-0 7/8, 242, 4.54-40) who’s now starting for the Eagles (drafted at #220).
223. CB R..J. Sanford – He made the Panthers roster this year, after spending 2010 on the practice squad. I Wish they had drafted LB/S/TE/FB/WR Jameson Konz (6-3 1/2, 234, 4.38-40, 46 inch vertical) who went to the Seahawks at #245.
249. CB Robert McClain – He made the roster in 2010, but was cut this year. CB Bryan McClain (5-10, 182, 4.29-40, a Cowboys UDFA), or FS Michael Greco (6-2 7/8, 224, 4.40-40, a Packers UDFA) might have been better picks. I might have gone for WR Scott Long (6-2 1/8, 216, 4.46-40, 41.5 inch vertical, a record 6.45 3-cone drill, he was in the top 5 of almost every Combine event, Louisville’s leading WR, and from NC, but he only lasted around a week with the 49ers as a UDFA) or WR Blair White (6-2 1/4, 209, 4.42-40) a Colts UDFA.
2009:
43. DE Everette Brown – The trade (Panthers 2010 1st round pick for #43, and #111 picks) was OK (they desperately needed DE help), but Brown was the problem. I Hoped the Panthers would go for one of thes DE’s with that pick, #70 pick DE Michael Johnson (6-6 7/8, 266, Combine 4.75-40, Pro Day 4.49-40, 1.53-10) who finally started to show signs of his potental last season, #125 Lawrence Sidbury, Jr (6-2 3/4, 266, Combine 4,64-40, Pro Day 4.53-40, 1.53-10) who’s done nothing in the NFL yet, or #46 Connor Barwin (6-3 5/8, 256, Combine 4.66-40, Pro Day 4.47-40, 1.53-10) who’s now the Texans starting 3-4 OLB after 2 years of injuries.
59. S Sherrod Martin – A good pick, but I would have gone for DT Roy Miller (6-1 5/8, 310, 4.95-40) the Bucs #81 pick. He had 33 tackles (27 solo) with 2 sacks as a rookie, and 47 tackles (33 solo) with 1 sack in 2010, as the Bucs 4-3 NT.
93. DT Corvey Irving – we can never know what kind of player he might have been if not for his preseason knee injury as a rookie. That said though, I hated this pick at the time, I would have gone for CB Jason McCourty (5-11 7/8, 193, 4.30-40), though I could have “cherry picked” him much later by rewriting my past picks, he wasn’t drafted until #203 by the Titans. ProFootballFocus.com ranked McCourty as the best CB in the 2009 draft class this summer, and he starts for the Titans.
111. RB Mike Goodson – He’s been an OK pick, and you couldn’t predict this pick before the draft because it came in a trade. However, I hoped for DE Henry Melton (6-3 1/2, 269, 4.64-40), who went to the Bears at #105.
128. FB Tony Fiammetta – A blocking FB who was cut before this season. As I said at the time of the draft, and repeated several times, it’s always a mistake to draft a blocking only FB before at least the late 6th round (Brad Hoover Was a UDFA). I wanted WR Johnny Knox (5-11 1/2, 185, 4.34-40) #140 Bears, because Steve Smith was the only sub 4.6-40 WR the Panthers had, and he’s not getting any younger.
163. OG Duke Robinson – He never did anything except sit on IR, and was cut yesterday. He seemed like a good value pick at the time, with no one expecting him to fall below the 3rd round.
216. Captain Munnerlyn – This draft spot was the result of a great draft day trade by Hurney, the #202 pick for the #216 pick and the Raiders 6th round pick in 2010. Even as much as I liked CB Jason McCourty (#203), you couldn’t pass up this deal, and Munnerlyn was by far the best player available at #216.
2008:
13 RB Jonathan Stewart – Every loves J-Stew, but I wanted RB Chris Johnson and QB Joe Flacco in the 1st round (had focused on them since mid-season, and just cringed as they moved up from the 2nd and 3rd rounds respectively), the problem was the Panthers had to get an OT, and there were no good OT’s after the 1st round.
19. OT Jeff Otah – Everyone thought he was a great pick until the end of his 2nd year. Who knew he was a fraigle as a china doll?
67. S Charles Godfrey – A good pick, but something of a surprise as he played CB in college.
74. MLB Dan Connor – A great value pick, to backup MLB Jon Beason. I would have really blown this pick, going for DT Dre Moore (6-4, 305, 4.84-40) #115 Bucs, who never did anything in the NFL.
141. TE Gary Barnidge – I loved this pick, it was the one I hoped for, but he’s on IR now, and had no catches in 2 of his 3 other seasons.
181. DT Nick Hayden – A smaller DT with no speed. Why? I would have gone for SS josh Barrett (6-2, 225, 4.35-40), but he hasn’t done much in the NFL either.
221. DE Hilee Taylor – An undersized DE, who should have played 3-4 OLB. I would have gone for WR Chaz Schillens (6-4, 225, 4.38-40) #226 Raiders, who’s a good WR, but endlessly plagued with injuries.
241. OT Geoff Schwartz – A good up and coming RG, but on IR this year.
250. OG Mackenzy Bernadeau – The Panthers should sue him for breach of promise. He’s made the roster, showed some promise, but never delivered on it.
2007:
It’s a little complicated at the top. The Panthers had the 14th pick (used by the Jets for CB Darrelle Revis, but they traded it to the Jets for the #25 pick, who many thought they might use for TE Greg Olsen.. Can You inagine if the Panthers had kept the #14 pick, and drafted CB Darrelle Revis, and then All-Pro ILB David Harris at #46? The Panthers could have had 4 straight Pro Bowl players to start this draft.
25. MLB Jon Beason – Who doesn’t like Beason? However, I would have gone a different way, selecting TE Greg Olsen at #25, and All-Pro ILB David Harris at #46, rather than Dwayne Jarrett.
46. WR Dwayne Jarrett – Let the BOO’s begin. I believe Revis or Olsen in the 1st round, with Harris at 46 would have been far better.
59. C Ryan Kalil – A homerun pick, he was expected to go in the late 1st round.
83. DE Charles Johnson – This pick just keeps getting better and better.
118. WR/PR Ryne Robinson – Why? The Panthers paniced that all the punt returners would be gone before their next pick, but how in the world did they chose the smaller, slower, and from a weaker conference Robinson, rather WR Steve Breaston, #142.
155. TE Dante Rosario – An OK pick for the Panthers for 4 years. However, if they had drafted Olsen they wouldn’t have needed him. I would have liked S John Wendling (6-1, 222, 4.49-40), but his NFL contributions have been mostly on special teams.
164. MLB Tim Shaw – Tis career has been mostly on NFL special teams. They could have also gone for situational pass rushing DE Jacob Ford (6-5, 250, 4.65-40), who’s averaged 5 sacks over the last 3 years, with a high of 7 sacks.
226. CB C.J. Wilson – He hung on the roster until this year, but lacked speed at a 4.62-40. I would have gone with MLB Brandon Siler, who was thought to be a 1st or 2nd round pick before the draft.
Someone really voted for 2007?
Do you realize we got (Maybe) our three best players in Beason, Kalil, and CJ?
"Excuses are a disease." -Cam Newton
Did You Not Read The Post? The Panthers Could Have Had 4 Pro Bowl Players To Start The 2007 Draft
14. CB Darrelle Revis, traded for the #25 pick.
46. ILB David Harris
59. C Ryan Kalil
83. DE Charles Johnson
They could also have had 4 in a row with the trade of #14 for #25 by drafting Greg Olsen at #25
by PanthersRoar on Sep 29, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
not necessarily true
You can’t say we could have had those guys. Pro-bowl guys go in the 7th or undrafted sometimes. beside you don’t know who they would have picked we may or may not have taken Revis. odds are that if we didnt do that trade we still would gotten Jarrett and not have gotten Kalil. I think that draft was executed perfectly with the exception of the Jarrett pick
don't forget
We wouldn’t have picked Harris because we wanted an OLB to play alongside Dan Morgan. And the most important factor is that a bunch of these guys might not have excelled under Foxy’s don’t-train’em-up coaching style. I mean, Jeff King is having his best season of his career in AZ now. He could’ve done more if Foxy let him. I doubt Olsen would’ve done much if we drafted him because Foxy just didn’t get it done. He let D-Will rot on the bench for two years, and CJ, too.
by usana_gaines on Sep 30, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
They Needed A LB To Replace Always Injured Dan Morgan In The 2007 Draft
I made that same point, that you can never know for sure how a players would have responded in a different situation.
Fox strikes again! Broncos WR Brandon Lloyd says his early season numbers are down (from 18.8 YPC to 12.7 YPC) because of the offensive philosophy of coach John Fox – RotoWorld. Fox won’t last long in Denver, and I believe he would have better off taking a year or 2 off, to study what works in today’s NFL, But fear he will just never change.
by PanthersRoar on Sep 30, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
no way he takes a year off
I think Fox believes that he had a good run in Carolina. He lacked talent in some areas, but that was Hurney’s fault. The last season sucked, but that was JR’s fault. In other words, nothing that went wrong in Carolina was his fault, and all the good in Carolina was because of him and Jake. He’s probably surprised that his philosophy on another team with less talent isn’t working.
by usana_gaines on Sep 30, 2011 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
1998
It’s 1998, no debate necessary.
1-Jason Peter
3-Chuck Wiley
3-Mitch Marrow
4-Donald Hayes
5-Jerry Jensen
6-Damien Richardson
7-Viliami Maumau
7-Jim Turner
Horrible.
"I won't publicly endorse a product unless I use it exclusively and I really believe in it. My only official recommendations are US Army issued mustache trimmers, Morton's Salt, and the C.R. Lawrence fine two inch style oscillating knife blade."
I totally agree
name one player from that draft that did anything but steal from the panthers…I’ll wait…
"Stay far from timid, only make moves when your heart's in it, and live the phrase sky's the limit" Christopher Wallace
who are those guys?
now i have to do some research. In the 1st rd after we picked Peter, other teams got guys like RANDY MOSS, Vonnie Holiday, Alan Faneca, and Donovin Darius. After we got WIley Coyote in the 3rd, other teams got guys like Hines Ward, Olin Kreutz, and AHman Green. We got Jeremy Jensen at pick 136. After that, other guys drafted included Matt Birk, Matt Hasslebeck, Pat Tillman, and London Fletcher.
But if we had ever don eanything differently (like if we picked Hasslebeck), we might not have CAM now. So i’m happy.
by usana_gaines on Sep 30, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah.
It’s like in the movies, if you go back in time and change one thing it screws everything up. Millions of factors went into us getting Cam Newton, including Andrew Luck staying in college another year.
I'm gonna live forever, I'm never gonna die. The only thing I fear is I'm never gonna fly.
by Charlotte Bobcat on Sep 30, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Lol. Wow. That was a draft class? Horrible.
I'm gonna live forever, I'm never gonna die. The only thing I fear is I'm never gonna fly.
by Charlotte Bobcat on Sep 30, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
David Boston used to be a BEAST!!!
I'm gonna live forever, I'm never gonna die. The only thing I fear is I'm never gonna fly.
by Charlotte Bobcat on Sep 30, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions
any year with eric shelton in it
"We want them to play fast, we want them to play physical, we want them to play hard and most importantly we want them to play smart." RR 8-3-11
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