Know when to Hold-em', know when to Fold-em'...Week-3

CHARLOTTE, NC - SEPTEMBER 18: Quarterback Cam Newton #1 of the Carolina Panthers runs for a gain against the Green Bay Packers September 18, 2011 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images) From Rick - Cam, we know you can dance, put the dang ball away!

I love good analysis, and I love honesty.  There are many good/great articles over at FantasyFootballMetrics.com, but I want to specifically share an exerpt about Cam.  RC Fischer mans up and admits a methodology error that needs to be tweaked.  It's important that we all realize that, even using advanced metrics, the goal at FFM is a 70% success rate, which is a high standard when predicting success in the NFL.

While I'm at it, I might as well throw in a little FFM prediction about Blaine Gabbert.

Know when to Hold-em', know when to Fold-em'...Week-3

2011 Fantasy Football, Dynasty Leagues, Cam Newton, Kenny Britt, Reggie Bush

By R.C. Fischer
Release Date:
9/18/2011

After two-weeks, we are tracking with quite possibly our best season start ever. We made a lot of great calls this week on Robert Meachem, Eric Decker, LeGarrette Blount, David Nelson, etc. As always, there were bad calls (we just want a 70/30 ratio good/bad, or better)...Donald Jones, Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew.

There will be bad projections. Much of the time, it is just a weekly blip. Sometimes, the concept is just a few weeks ahead of its time. They can't all work out perfect. We constantly preach to friends and foes -- not to be too rash in Fantasy Football. Don't dump/bench top talent based on one bad week. We like to think of ourselves as very prudent making Fantasy Football evaluations. However, this is still a game...and is very much like the stock market. Situations change, events did unfold as expected. When something seems obvious, sometimes...you have to belly-up and admit a mistake and cut your losses.

There are some early assumptions that we had loaded into our computer analysis, that now has to change going forward. I would like to share a few of them:

1) We were wrong about Cam Newton's start to 2011.

We are anti-rookie QBs for Fantasy Football as a default. We don't care who the rookie QB is. Rookie QBs can be solid, like Sam Bradford last year, or Andy Dalton (who we love) this year. Solid isn't what we want in Fantasy Football, we want video game type numbers from our Fantasy Football QB. Cam Newton is putting up video game type numbers. This is NOT an endorsement of Cam Newton. We still have our doubts on him being top-tier. However, it is an admission...he is not an NFL disaster rookie situation. He's going to hold his own, and then some. We are not seeking Newton for our rosters, but we are changing Fantasy Football scoring projections of team-defenses facing him upcoming. We are also going to upgrade Steve Smith and Greg Olsen higher than where we had them.

We thought Newton would be an early season/all season disaster...that was wrong, time to change projections accordingly.

You know, I would bet that a very few, if any, computers and fewer, if any, analysts accurately predicted the start we've seen from Cam.  It does prove, however, that Bo Knows.

Oh yes, I promised the prediction for Gabbert this week ...If you use the link, you can see the predictions for all the QBs in table form, followed by some specific performance analysis for "best and worst" type cases....

2011 FANTASY FOOTBALL SIT & START

...

LOW SCORE SURPRISE: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay vs. the Bears and Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville vs. Carolina

... Blaine Gabbert is likely to get the start on the road versus Carolina, and you will likely get a full dose of why teams passed on him in the top-10 in this past draft, when the media was fawning on him as a top-5 draft pick. You are also going to get a front-row seat to the embarrassment of Gabbert being selected ahead of Andy Dalton. Gabbert, at best, will throw several safe dump passes, and the team will cross its fingers for good YAC. If you ever wanted to see a future high draft pick NFL bust QB unfold right before your very eyes, watch this game. Sorry, that was harsh...but just calling what the computer has been projecting from the get go on Gabbert.

Hey, I'm like Cam.  I just want the win, and if Gabbert sucks it will help us win.  I think we can all agree that FFM was wrong about Cam

They had Cam (article here) with great passing numbers, but too few attempts and the iffy wonderlic red flags.  In the end the pre-draft closest comparisons for Cam were Vince Young and Alex Smith.

Gabbert, (article here) on the other hand, showed bad performances against tough opponents as a Senior, a low TD/Attempt ratio, Gabbert rated as the most likely Bust among top-rated QBs, comparing closest to Matt Leinart.

It will certainly be interesting to see how each fare in the Rookie QB Bowl tomorrow.

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