The Friday Five, Week 3 vs. Jacksonville

I truly feel like if we get MJD down, then its our game all the way, Gabbert is likely no joke, as I was feeling like he was the better option for us at QB prior to the draft, glad now that I am not in charge in the draft room. Newton has done absolutely nothing to indicate he can’t handle any and all pressures thrown at him, and will likely continue his dominance in this game.

The RZ offense will get better over time. I still think it is the product of a young offense learning a new system. Once they work out which plays fit the personnel best and which plays the team can execute best, the scoring will happen in the RZ.

Also, are we not going to have any captains on D now with Godfrey out as well? Wonder who will be the spirited leader on D. Definitely need it on Sunday…

We’re talking about a run-oriented team (in the Jaguars) who will try and protect Gabbert from making mistakes by running MJD as often as they can (especially against our DTs). They’re doubly incented to do that, because they’ll want to control the clock and limit Cam’s offense from taking the field all that often. That alone will keep the score down. But, in addition, I think the Panthers will try and get their running game going again…if for no other reason than everyone’s pressuring them to do so (even some of the Panthers’ players themselves). I don’t expect them to have much success with it against the Jags unless they run sweeps and misdirection to avoid their DTs (i.e., the teeth of their run-defense). Either way, the potential is there for more of our drives to stall between the 20’s than when we played Arizona and Green Bay. And both teams will be eating up clock because of their game plans on offense.

To me, that means this game becomes a battle of defenses. We’ll stack the box and pressure Gabbert (as much as we can) into making bad throws on obvious passing downs. The Jags probably won’t have to stack the line against us to stop Deangelo and Stewart (because they’re already really stout)…which means they may just drop some extra guys in coverage (especially against the TEs). That may stymie Cam’s ability to hit the open man (but we’ll see). The bottom line is that the outcome of the game will be determined far more by what each team does defensively (and how well they succeed) than the game plans on offense.

As a result, I expect both teams to keep this game in the low-20’s. I don’t expect Cam to pass for 400 yards again (simply because he won’t have as many possessions, not because the Jags’ pass-defense is all that awesome). And I expect MJD to post much better running numbers than he’s had in his prior outings (simply because it’s our biggest weakness). My primary worry is our defense giving up big plays again and letting MJD take off the length of the field on a huge running play. That’ll take the wind out of our defense very quickly.

So, if I were game planning for the Panthers on this one, I’d recommend they focus on the following things:

1) On Defense - You key on MJD. Stack the box. Help your DTs however you must. But don’t let him get the big play or beat you on the ground. And don’t fall for the screen play they like to use with him so often in the passing game. Make Gabbert face 3rd and long. Bring the pressure on obvious passing downs. And, most importantly, get off the field. Don’t give up penalties and help them keep drives alive.

2) On Offense - Take the same strategy the Jags will try and use against us. Neutralize their offense (both MJD and Gabbert) by limiting how often they see the field. Control the clock. Whether you do it by jumpstarting the running game (unlikely) or with receivers catching balls and staying inbounds (or Cam escaping the pocket to run), you take the ball out of MJD’s hands so he can’t run wild. Most importantly, avoid turnovers and stupid penalties. We can’t afford to have drives stall…and especially not in the red zone. Put points on the board. Make the Jags play from behind. That’s when Gabbert will have to play catch-up and try to beat you with his arm. And that’s when you can pin back your ears and get after him with the blitz.

But that’s just my two cents,
—Neil

Only thing I might add is the tight ends.

Last week Dustin Keller had 101 yards receiving and a TD against the Jags. They were able to effectively shut down the Jets’ receivers, but had no answer to their tight ends.

Despite being 9th in receiving yards among TEs with 112, I don’t know if there is a guy whose had more bad luck that Greg Olsen. He should have had a TD last week which was negated by the illegal shift penalty, in week one he was shoe-stringed at the goal line…. the cracks in the dam are there and I think this could be the week the floodgates are opened and he has a mammoth day.

I honestly feel we are overestimating MJD in this game. yes hes a great back and yes he will get a lot of yards but in this new era of the pass heavy NFL, running backs wont win you gsmes. Hence why the jags only scored 3 pts last week and hence why the Jags failed to score 20 pts against the titans.

if two teams are playing each other. 1 team is dominate in the air and one team is dominant on the ground. the former almost always wins. Case in point; Dolphins and Reggie Bush vs the Patriots. Ask Miami how Reggie Bush is working out for them.

hell we can even use us as an example. as good as our run game is, if we didnt have cam gun slinging it for us, we would have lost those 2 games by 20 pts a piece.

I agree with pretty much everything you said here. I’d like to add one more item to the Cam section. The Jags like to provide pressure with their stout D-line and drop as many as they can into coverage. That’s all well and good, but will they put a spy on Cam? If not, Cam may have opportunities for some eye-popping runs.

After al lthis talk on Defense’s Faking ijuries and Jon Beason talking about hurry up offenses. do you think that we will run some no huddle – Hurry up since the Defense won’t be able to pull any fast ones like in the Eagles Rams game?

(He got the concussion when he laid his body on the line to prevent Packers’ FB John Kuhn from scoring a touchdown…can’t help but respect him for that.)

Wasn’t that Gamble? i thought Godfrey got a concussion on a different big hit…

I pray Legadon’t is last in line in Cam’s progressions. Especially if Cam’s taking a shot to the EZ or if they’re on 3rd down. That’s a recipe for a field goal or an INT if Naanee’s sloppy on his routes. I’d rather not see Naanee at all inside of the 20.

Maybe go with a 22 set with Shockey, Olsen, J-Stew, D-Will, and either Smitty or LaFell.

Probably every single person on this blog thinks I’m absolutely insane for even allowing myself to have the thought of a shot to the EZ without Smitty in on the play. But the guy had some suspect hands in the last game (although he still racked up some yards).

With the personnel group I suggested, you’d have 2 RBs who proved last week that they’re receiving threats. And who knows…maybe Otah might make a difference in the running game (although still highly unlikely against the Jags). J-stew could help block for D-Will or Cam if he keeps the ball. With a few very rare exceptions, Shockey’s been a very reliable target for Cam, and I personally think he’s a pretty decent blocker despite the fact that that’s not what he’s known for. Then, you’d also have the big body with Olsen. And then you’d also have LaFell – a slightly taller WR who has been very consistent the past 2 weeks and makes some imressive circus and 3rd down catches.

Anyway, please no insulting name calling or calling me crazy for suggesting a shot at the EZ without Smitty (although you’re welcome to silently think that). I just don’t recall seeing any formations in the RZ with that set of personnel. You’d have so many different plays you could run with that set of guys. There hasn’t been a lot of success with what they’ve done so far, so why not try thinking even more outside of the box?

Ultimately, though, I think the best thing they could do would be to keep Naanee off the field when they’re inside of the 20.

And since I said that, watch Naanee catch 4 TDs. LOL. If he makes me look like a fool and he helps secure a win, then I’ll gladly serve myself a couple of helpings of crow.

Did I lose credibility with my request for no one to call me crazy?

A little, but only because you have to be crazy to be a Panthers fan.