Jumping back in to the QE rating (name pending)
by James Dator on Sep 21, 2011 1:00 PM EDT
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PrintYesterday I introduced you to a new metric, the 'CQE', it was an attempt by a friend of mine to distill passer ratings into three basic areas: Yards per attempt, touchdown % and interception %. After reading the comments here on CSR and getting come outside opinion he has tweaked the numbers under the hood by examining NFL trends and averages since the merger.
This is very much still a work in progress, but under his new system I feel it's even closer to replicating a fair and accurate QB rating. As it stands he doesn't want to get into the formula too much because he wants to get pure opinions based on if you think these numbers hold water. It values touchdowns a little more, which gives a very definite bump to a QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick.
After the jump I'll give you the current standings for 2011, and give you the ratings we have for the top 5 QBs of all time using this system. Basically let us know if you think this passes the eye/opinion test of who the best QBs are. The more feedback he gets, the better he can hone the system.
Current 2011 Season
Tom Brady, QB NE 13.77
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB 13.18
Kevin Kolb, QB ARI 12.11
Tony Romo, QB DAL 11.84
Drew Brees, QB NO 11.31
Matthew Stafford, QB 11.28
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB BUF 10.48
Andy Dalton, QB CIN 9.91
Michael Vick, QB PHI 9.32
Jason Campbell, QB OAK 9.29
Cam Newton, QB CAR 9.15
Matt Schaub, QB HOU 8.94
Rex Grossman, QB WSH 8.66
Matt Hasselbeck, QB TEN 8.48
Jay Cutler, QB CHI 8.30
Kyle Orton, QB DEN 8.19
Joe Flacco, QB BAL 8.06
Mark Sanchez, QB NYJ 7.78
Chad Henne, QB MIA 7.72
Alex Smith, QB SF 7.69
Philip Rivers, QB SD 7.56
Sam Bradford, QB STL 7.45
Eli Manning, QB NYG 7.28
Colt McCoy, QB CLE 7.04
Matt Ryan, QB ATL 7.01
Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT 6.97
Josh Freeman, QB TB 6.46
Kerry Collins, QB IND 6.14
Tarvaris Jackson, QB SEA 5.93
Donovan McNabb, QB MIN 5.67
Matt Cassel, QB KC 1.08
Luke McCown, QB JAC -0.06
Top 10 QBs of All-Time (Career)
Steve Young, QB SF 9.10
Tom Brady, QB NE 8.80
Peyton Manning, QB IND 8.60
Kurt Warner, QB STL 8.50
Joe Montana, QB SF 8.31
Drew Brees, QB NO 8.06
Dan Marino, QB MIA 7.94
Roger Staubach, QB DAL 7.94
Jim Kelly, QB BUF 7.60
Bart Starr, QB GB 7.54
If you have a player's career or season you want run through the system let me know and I can give you a rating.
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I think the top-10 career list is pretty close to my 'eye test'
To clarify: all the names I thought would be on there are, with the exception of Johnny Unitas.
My eye test would probably arrange the list differently (eg – I’d rank Marino, Montana, and Kelly higher than Warner), but I think it’s a pretty good indicator of how good (or bad) a QB really is.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Yeah, one thing no metric can take into account is winning. Montana was an amazing winner, but his stats didn’t always show that. Same can be said for someone like Ben Roethlisberger.
Unitas was very close at 11th with 7.52 on the rating.
You're right...winning can't be accounted for in these things.
This formula is validated though by the fact that the top 10 career ratings are all QB’s that most fans would consider “great QB’s” … there aren’t any Trent Dilfers (guys who won a SB but rode coattails of an elite defense) to throw off the ranking, which is a great thing.
I figured Unitas would be in the top-15 at the least…
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Yeah, I think the best way to imagine this metric is a ‘passer rating’ rather than a QB rating. If you look at is as just a measure of a QB’s ability to pass the football and forget the intangibles or rushing ability it makes it easier to swallow in the case of someone like Joe Montana
I like the fact that it gives a little more weight to the touchdown. As we can see Cam slipped down the ladder a little with this formulation, but that’s what being a QB is all about, guiding your team to points. Looks like you can set a 7.5+ as “elite” status
I think that’s definitely fair. We see the greatest seasons in NFL history trend over 10, and the highest complete season thus far is Peyton Manning in 2004 with a rating of 12.4
Just out of morbid curiosity...
Have you run terrible seasons to see how low the numbers can get? I’d be curious as to what the worst season/career rating is.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Here are some
2010- Jimmy Clausen: 3.90
2009- Jamarcus Russell: 3.16
1999- Jake Plummer: 2.93
1976- Gary Marangi: 1.65
and the all time winner….
1981- Dan Pastorini: -0.10
How bad was Pastorini? This bad: Completed 42% of his passes for only 719 yards, 2 TDs and 14 INTs
Damn…so bad that it was actually better if the ball went incomplete.
I didn’t realize that Plummer was that horrid in 1999 either. Of course I should have known, he did play for the Cardinals.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
I'd like to know what Jake Delhommes career rating was
I would also like to know his 2003 and 2009 seasons
IT AIN'T SIZE OF THE DOG IN THE FIGHT BUT THE SIZE OF THE FIGHT IN THE DOG
I don't see where you explain the new methodology. Did I miss something?
If he tweaked it, how’d he tweak it?
Was that just back-loading the data, to achieve some preconceived result? If so, not scientifically valid. I liked the previous method. It was simple, and easily computed.
How’s this New & Improved method arrived at?
Yeah, I did notice how Brady shot up two whole points from yesterday, but I don’t understand why.
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
He wanted to wait a few days to promote discussion and then come here on CSR and give the new formula. Basically it’s just the 8 and 4 multipliers that have been modified based on NFL TD and INT trends since the NFL/AFL merger.
That’s all that was tinkered with. It’s still as easy to compute as it was.
It passes the eye-test for me
On the season, Cam is piling up yards but not scoring necessarily when it counts. Which is (and should) put him below QBs that are leading their teams into the endzone regardless of whether you feel Jason Campbell and Andy Dalton belong above him in the list.
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
One thing he pointed out to me is that Cam Newton is the only QB in the top half of the list who threw more INTs than TDs. That’s because his YPA is so high.
The three picks against GB killed him.
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
What was Delholme's score before the Arizona melt down?
IIRC, he was still considered pretty elite in the postseason until then.
Tattoo your name on my arm
I always said my girl's a good luck charm. -The Ramones
Nice, but I screwed up.
I meant his post season score.
Tattoo your name on my arm
I always said my girl's a good luck charm. -The Ramones
Excluding the ARZ game I’d guess its somewhere close to 10.0.
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
It makes sense.
He played like an elite QB in the ‘03 & ’05 post seasons. Hell, that 9.72 may be close to a postseason record…except that you’d have to throw the ARZ game back in there (and consequently watch his rating take an epic nose dive).
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
Even though his career is young, currently Aaron Rodgers is on pace to be the GOAT
9.43 regular season, but in the playoffs he rises to 11.23
I knew he played well in the playoffs last season but good Lord.
He is one of the few guys who appears to be in total command out there.
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
Yup...
It’s fun to look at the difference in players between their regular season and playoffs.
- Rodgers goes up 2 pts
- Bradshaw goes up 1.5 pts
- Manning drops 1.5 pts
- McNabb drops 1.75 pts
I guess as long as you can get your team into the playoffs
those are the ratings that matter most.
Tattoo your name on my arm
I always said my girl's a good luck charm. -The Ramones
How about Elway?
I was a huge Elway fan as a kid.
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
How bout the panthers starting QBs
Collins, Beurline (sp), you covered Jake so I’m not going to mention him, Moore, Pickles, Vinny and Carr, oh and who could for get St. Pierre
I'll give you all of them only as Carolina Panthers
Frank Reich: 4.97
Kerry Collins: 5.47
Steve Beuerlein: 8.01
Chris Weinke: 4.48
Randy Fasani: -1.49
Rodney Peete: 6.46
Jake Delhomme: 7.37
David Carr: 3.54
Vinny Testaverde: 4.85
Matt Moore: 6.10
Jimmy Clausen: 3.90
Brian St. Pierre: 6.68
Randy Fasani: -1.49
Yeeeooouucchhhh.
This one is what rings true to me: Steve Beuerlein: 8.01
Ladies and gentlemen, that is why we had constant argument about the fact that Delhomme wasn’t even the greatest QB to ever play for the Panthers. He may have been the leader and a locker room favorite, but had Beurlein had more tools around him, he probably could have led us to the promised land.
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
What's Fasani's if you give him back his only TD pass?
The one that the booth took away so Vick and the Dirty Birds could get their shut out. Man that was a BS call.
Tattoo your name on my arm
I always said my girl's a good luck charm. -The Ramones
Nope. But at least he could round up to 0.
I’m reaching here.
Tattoo your name on my arm
I always said my girl's a good luck charm. -The Ramones
Meh
We are trying to sabermetric football too much I feel now. I’m just gonna leave it up to the experts. Plus I like the rushing and clutch stuff from QBR. Interesting concept (fanmade QB ratings), but unneeded IMO.
Also, this hurts the gunslinger QB’s that have won in the past (which is the highest value I place on a QB), but also you have to consider the team around them.
"What up? We're three cool guys looking for other cool guys who wanna hang out in our party mansion. Nothing sexual. Dudes in good shape encouraged. If you're fat, you should be able to find humor in the little things." Again, NOTHING SEXUAL
"I'd rather jerk off a tiger in a phone booth than draft Cam"
-Mel Kiper, Jr.
you guys are like a bunch of pirahnas
by chop goes da weazel on Mar 31, 2011 12:32 PM PDT
by MikeTrain on Sep 21, 2011 2:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
So the highest value you place on a QB is winning?
A stat that can’t really be attributed to just one person, since football is a team sport?
I guess you also think the pitcher with the most wins should automatically get the Cy Young award too?
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
A Lot Of Baseball Writers Who Vote On The Awards & HOF Way Overvalue Wins
I can never understand why, but I can remember them awarding the Cy Young to a Pitcher who had 2 or 3 more wins (something like 21 vs. 19 wins), but who’s ERA was in the mid 3’s, while the pitcher with 2 or 3 less wins had an ERA in the low 2’s.
I agree with you “BW”, wins are a team stat, though QB’s and pitchers do have more influence over wins than other players on their teams.
by PanthersRoar on Sep 21, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with that, PR…pitchers and QB’s have more influence than other positions…but like we’ve said — wins are a team related event.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
The problem with ESPN’s subjective QBR is that nobody knows how it works, or who determines the rating.
Last week they had Cam Newton as a 25.2, second worse in the league, when an ‘average’ QB is considered a 50.0. I know he threw three picks, but you can’t tell me completing over 60% of passes for 432 yards, running for 56 and a TD and throwing for another TD makes someone one of the worst QBs in a given week.
How about Johnny Unitas?
Old schooler here born in Baltimore. Just curious…
The only problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.
-Margaret Thatcher
by Panther Fan in GA on Sep 21, 2011 7:33 PM EDT reply actions
11th overall
Rating of 7.52 on his career.
by James Dator on Sep 21, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are this year’s ratings so much higher than the top-10 All-Time? Is that because of the new emphasis on passing or is it hard to sustain a high score the more games you play? I understand that over time you’ll have bad games to bring down the score.
That's exactly right.
It is highly unlikely that Brady will maintain his current pace. If he does, he’ll end up passing for more than 7,000 yards this season.
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
In The Past 40 Years Or More Ago, QB's Didn't Checkdown Much, Throw As Many Short Dump Off Passes, Or Pass For 5 Yards When They Need 10 For A 1st Down
by PanthersRoar on Sep 22, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe its me, PR, but I would find capitalizing every word in a sentence rather tedious. I commend you for not succumbing to the same laziness.
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
(Well, it’s also grammatically incorrect.)
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
(That was my attempt at telling him nicely that it makes it difficult to read.)
Love you, PR.
"We're no strangers to love. You know the rules and so do I. A full commitment's what I'm thinking of. You wouldn't get this from any other guy. I just wanna tell you how I'm feeling. Gotta make you understand."
Actually, this system is able to deal with QBs from any era
The greatest single season by any QB we can find is Sid Luckman of the 1943 Chicago Bears.
Luckman only completed 50% of his passes, but he threw for 2,194 yards (11 YPA) while throwing 28 TDs (14% TD) and 12 INT. He finishes with a rating of 13.91, which kills Peyton Manning’s 2004 (12.64).
by James Dator on Sep 22, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
And to show why we like this system better....
Using traditional QB ratings Luckman would only post a 107.5, which is good… but hardly earth shattering
by James Dator on Sep 22, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
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