Could the next Charles Johnson already be on the roster?
by James Dator on Jul 19, 2011 11:18 AM EDT
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History oftentimes repeats itself; This can happen both in good ways, and bad ones. When it comes to the Carolina Panthers and defensive ends recent history has given us both occasions. It was roughly 16 months ago that Julius Peppers decided to leave for the Chicago Bears, and at the time fans were in panic. There was a distinct feeling that the Panthers would have absolutely no pass rush, and the idea of Charles Johnson filling the void were admirable, but naive. At that time I looked through some advanced statistics on Football Outsiders and made a bold claim on CSR: That we wouldn't really miss Peppers because we had someone with as much ability on the roster already in Johnson.
Fast forward a year and most of that came true. Granted, we'd likely all still love to have Peppers' ability in Charlotte, but CJ did an extremely good job not only filling the gap left by Peppers, but making us forget about #90 for much of the season.
Today I come to you again, looking at many of the same statistics to tell you if Charles Johnson does decided to leave via free agency we'll be okay, because much like Johnson replaced Peppers, we may already have someone ready to fill the void.
More after the jump
For the purpose of this piece I will be focusing largely on numbers from Footballoutsiders.com. While I'm well aware of Pro Football Focus' three-year pass rush metrics, ultimately I feel these are flawed in looking at the Panthers as a whole because our players are so young. In the case of Everette Brown for instance he was a rookie, and extremely undersized at that, he was always intended to need some time so evaluating his first year is shortsighted.
Instead, what I'll be comparing is Charles Johnson from 2009, as a 3rd down pass rush specialist and comparing him to 2010 versions of Greg Hardy and Everette Brown, both of whom filled the same role in 2010. This will give us an idea of whether these players were close.
27 total plays, 74% stop rate on all plays
11 potential pass rush plays, 4 sacks (36.3%)
16 potential run stop plays, 11 stops (68.7%)
- These are impressive numbers for a player who is spelled in on 3rd down scenarios. These were the numbers I saw last year that told me he had the ability to be an impact player on defense.
26 total plays, 73% stop rate on all plays
6 potential pass rush plays, 3 sacks (50%)
20 potential run stop plays, 13 stops (65%)
- There's good reason Greg Hardy became a fan favorite in just his rookie season. While he needs needs to hone is run stopping ability, in a lot of ways Johnson was in the same situation last year; ultimately, CJ was able to improve his run stop rate from 68.7% to 85.7%, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Hardy can do the same.
25 total plays, 84% stop rate on all plays
6 potential pass rush plays, 3.5 sacks (58.3%)
19 potential run stop plays, 15 stops (78.9%)
- In 2010 Everette Brown was the definition of 'walk softly and carry a big stick'. Brown really improved his pass rushing from 2009 to 2010, as he lifted his sack rate from 27.7% to 58.3%. While last season was rather quiet, in the end it looks like Brown could be the most ready to fill CJ's shoes should he decide to leave.
Summary
The intention of this piece isn't to say "we'll be fine without Charles Johnson!" because in reality, lightning rarely strikes twice. However, what I am saying is that should Charles Johnson elect to leave for what he perceives to be greener pastures, then we have two very promising, young defensive ends to help fill the gap. Just as CJ was largely underestimated in 2010, I feel the same could very well happen for Hardy and Brown, especially in an aggressive defense like McDermott's and Rivera's.
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Fast forward a year and most of that cam true.
Or Cam Newton can just sack the other QB because he is the best person in the history of the world.
(This is me taking a typo and turning it into a comment poking fun at the Cam Newton hype/hate argument threads.)
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
Thanks for your editorial help
Your fee of tree fiddy will be promptly mailed to you in an unmarked envelope.
by James Dator on Jul 19, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Greg Hardy is a better version of Charles Johnson
While I want the Panthers to pick up good FA’s and resign those guys they need, I do not want them to over pay for players that “want to win cash in for big pay day”. I would like JR to continue his original plan, build in the draft, bring in necessary pieces in FA and then build those guys into something more than they are now.
Good write up, getting awfully close to Thursday
Don't give up, don't ever give up ~ Jim Valvano
by AParker on Jul 19, 2011 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
You read my mind.
I am a proud supporter of troll hunting---- me.
When I see or hear sports segments dedicated to fantasy sports I want drive a nail in my ear because it is less painful. --also me.
by bigred28655 on Jul 19, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I knew Everette Brown made plays when he was on the field...
…having gone back and (painfully) watched all the 2010 numerous times, it is evident that he has talent. He needs more snaps. Now that Brayton is all but gone, he should at least be the 1st guy off the bench. He might potentially be our number 1 DE if CJ leaves and Hardy doesn’t make an enormous leap in his 2nd season.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
Nice write up, James
I think this is a get up or get out year for Brown. I know he’s been working hard to increase his size and his skills, so I won’t be surprised to see him greatly improve his stats this season.
Gred Hardy just needs to get on the field more. i think he has a good base now with a season under his belt, so the transition to starter shouldn’t be too hard on him. I’d really like to see him at RDE with CJ at LDE. I think they could potentially be the best DE tandem in the NFL with some coaching.
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
See, I think Brown kind of gets a bum rap.
I know that you aren’t trashing him here, and you in fact complimented him, but I think he has been just as good as CJ was in 07-09 and Hardy was in 2010 with a limited number of snaps.
I think its time to give him 30+ snaps a game. With this aggressive scheme, he could be a double-digit sack guy in that scenario.
The thing that makes us less than patient with Brown is the fact the he was essentially the 16th pick in the 2010 draft (where the Niners drafted G Mike Iupati).
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
+1
You mean we as fans aren’t patient with guys we pay more for in the draft? Say it ain’t so!
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
Thats why I think
we should try out Vernon Gholston at the DE. I think he can do better in the 4-3 than the 3-4
by Lesbian Montgomery on Jul 19, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Ewwww.........
I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault. -Jack Tatum
Follow me on Twitter
Except Johnson had as many sacks in 08 as a backup, than Brown's had his entire career
Brown is nowhere near the pass rusher that CJ is.
STEVE SMITH!
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2011 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
James Dator the hope giver.
Your spot light on Brown was encoraging to me. I have been reading to much about him being a bust. Hardy was overshadowed by CJ but did excite. I Forgot what did we give up to Hardy and/or Brown in the drafts? I thought a 2nd rounder for Brown but I am unsure.
I agree also that with the aggressiveness that is being pumped into the defence this year will help our pass rush improve a great deal with or without CJ.
I am a proud supporter of troll hunting---- me.
When I see or hear sports segments dedicated to fantasy sports I want drive a nail in my ear because it is less painful. --also me.
We gave up nothing for Greg Hardy, he was our 6th round pick in 2010.
As for Everette Brown, he was involved in the much maligned trade that sent the 2010 1st rounder (who ended up being Mike Iupati) for the picks that were Everette Brown and Mike Goodson.
by James Dator on Jul 19, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Really tough to say
Iupati is likely going to be a perennial probowler at RG, he has a ridiculous amount of skill as a run blocker, but RG is considered to be the ‘easiest’ of the OL positions, so it’s tough to evaluate. In the end, I’d rather Brown and Goodson than Iupati though, especially with how I think this new staff will use Goodie.
Given that #17 pick could have been Dez Bryant, Jermaine Gresham or Devin McCourty it’s hard to say the pick was worth it though
by James Dator on Jul 19, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously hindsight is 20/20
but I would trade Goodson and Brown for Gresham or McCourty in a heartbeat. Now Dez Bryant is another story. To me, sometimes it doesn’t matter how talented you are when you’re a total douche.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Goodson right now is a specialist player
and with the rule changes for kickoffs that minimizes his importance. Backs like him are easy to find. Brown is a third down pass rusher. Now they could change how they are perceived with this upcoming season, but for now a shutdown corner or a young, talented TE would be more helpful.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Jul 19, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Hard to say at present
After this season it will be easier to pass judgement, however I see great things out of both Goodson and Brown. Goodson really came through in a big way last year, and Everette had a quiet but productive season.
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
I think Brown also added some weight this off season.
Thats what that 1 guy said that had the workout with him, said he had about 5 more pounds on him.
And that was sort of the case before last season to IIRC
He had bulked up significantly to try and address his smaller DE size. To me it sounds like he has put in a ton of effort yet again this offseason.
I think Brown is a hard worker, and I think he will be looking to make a very positive impression to McDermott and take a starting role.
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Ty and Cheak this out
http://www.nationalfootballauthority.com/2011/07/carolina-panthers-should-let-deangelo.html
Read it and it felt like I got poked in the eye
I am a proud supporter of troll hunting---- me.
When I see or hear sports segments dedicated to fantasy sports I want drive a nail in my ear because it is less painful. --also me.
by bigred28655 on Jul 19, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
That dude's an idiot.
I am dead set against letting DeAngelo Williams walk. He is the best RB on the team, and possibly one of the 3-4 best in the NFL. Why would you let one of your most explosive players walk, when he has repeatedly said he’d like to stay?
If the Panthers don’t sign D-Will, I will be highly disappointed!
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
For what it's worth...
Joseph Person thinks the Panthers will resign CJ and James Anderson and let D-Will go.
I think CJ is priority #1.
Anderson and D-Will…meh, if they can get them for extremely team-friendly deals, then so be it.
If we choose to sign Anderson, then we probably need to trade Connor. He’s too good to be a backup MLB.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
And I share that same fear.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Why would you let one of your most explosive players walk, when he has repeatedly said he’d like to stay?
Because you have two (or three, depending on your opinion of Sutton) players who can more than compensate for his loss, at a significantly cheaper rate, allowing you to spend that money elsewhere for another need, such as DT, where we don’t have any 3-down players currently on the roster, and there are two quality free agents available at that position in Brandon Mebane and Barry Cofield.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
One question:
When was the last time you saw Goodson or Sutton run for a 40-50 yard Touchdown?
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Considering that we're moving to a vertical passing attack...that really doesn't matter.
The main replacement for D-Will is Stewart anyway.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Although I'd say regardless of the scheme
a guy that can readily break one for 40-50 yards is going to get a defense on its heels.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
And Stewart can (and has) done that.
I love D-Will too, don’t get me wrong. But, we have greater needs at other positions.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
DT, CB and possibly TE, yes.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
You're right on the money.
We NEED at least one (probably two) DT’s, or we’re going to suck up front on defense. McClain and Fua are rookies, and the rest of our DT’s are a who’s who of Practice Squad All-Stars, hardly the DT’s that I want anchoring the middle to let the DE’s get to the QB.
We need another CB as well to replace Marshall.
I’d love to keep D-Will in a Panthers uniform, but sometimes you have to let players at positions of surplus go to fill other positions of need, and that’s the unfortunate situation we’re in now.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Can't argue with this
But, we have greater needs at other positions
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
And that's the whole base of my argument.
I don’t want to let D-Will walk because I think he sucks, or because I think he’s overpaid….I think we should let him walk because we NEED to sign other players at other positions.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
My only argument to this is,
We have the room to keep him if we want to. He won’t be very expensive, in my opinion. The market for RBs in the NFL has basically dried up. If he was willing to sign a 4 year $24Mil deal, I’d do it. I think he’s well worth $6Mil. I think he’d stay for that.
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
If we can get him for $6M per year while also getting long-term deals for Kalil, Beason, Johnson, Anderson, and signing a CB and DT (Mebane and/or Cofield) in FA, then by all means sign him up…I just don’t think we’ll have the money to do it.
I really hope I’m wrong, FWIW.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
If we're being honest...
I think you are wrong. And I too hope that you are.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
He's not the constant threat that Williams is.
For a vertical passing game you want to stretch the defense, and Williams does that far better than Stewart. Stewart breaks a ton of tackles, but IIRC Williams was ranked higher in the elusiveness rankings by PFF. Williams is no slouch between the tackles either.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Jul 19, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Goodson's Greatest Value Will Be As A Receiver
Goodson’s greatest value will come as a receiver (41 catches in 2010, 2nd most on the team) out of the backfield (a safety valve for Cam), and spliting on into the slot on 3 and 4 WR sets. It would even be great if they could find a way to have both Goodson and Stewart in the backfield at the same time sometimes.
by PanthersRoar on Jul 19, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a feeling that Goodie will be good at running the QB read option back there with Cam, too. He can get up the field pretty quickly…even quicker when the defense doesn’t know who has the rock.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
DWilliam's recieving ability is overlooked
While not used by Fox, Deangelo has a college tag of all-time leader of all-purpose yards. The guy can most certainly be used on passing situations.
YUP!
+1
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't remember any 40-50 yards TDs last year from anybody.
So I’m definitely not holding that against Goodson. He’s proven capable (especially as a change of pace back), when he can hold on to the ball.
STEVE SMITH!
Wasn’t it Goodson that had 2 consecutive 100 yard games last year, one of which came against the Ravens?
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
He did break a KO return tho in preseason
And another one in the regular season if not for the most blatant facemask i have ever seen.
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
point is that he is explosive and capable of breaking a big one
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You're right!
And I think we’d have seen similar in the regular season, had we as a team not ran out of gas so quickly.
STEVE SMITH!
I don’t remember any 40-50 yards TDs last year from anybody.
Except for last year, D-Will made 40-50 yard TDs on the regular. You just knew he was gonna bust one out sooner or later. Without him, we don’t have that threat.
And correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t his TD last year come from a long run?
You can’t replace D-Will. Not with the current RBs. No Way!
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, we wouldn't want Stewart breaking 200 yards in a game or anything
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009122705/2009/REG16/panthers@giants/watch
Unleash the beast!!! He’s been under cover far too long!
STEVE SMITH!
Amen
I am a proud supporter of troll hunting---- me.
When I see or hear sports segments dedicated to fantasy sports I want drive a nail in my ear because it is less painful. --also me.
I remembered there was hate toward Brown for the way the draft worked out.
Just imagine the pressure on a certain Atlanta rookie that has and entire draft upon his shoulders lol.
I am a proud supporter of troll hunting---- me.
When I see or hear sports segments dedicated to fantasy sports I want drive a nail in my ear because it is less painful. --also me.
by bigred28655 on Jul 19, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah no kidding.
What do you think his minimum stat-line needs to be this season to keep the fans at bay?
I’d say like 65, 900 and 8.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
Hard to say that even that will apease them
It may have to be Pro Bowl numbers and Super Bowl Results. Jones well need to a Pro Bowler for most of his carreer in order not to be seen as a bust. They sort of set him up to fail if they do not win, as if it will be his fault. If he does not produce, even if his injured, heads may role.
I am a proud supporter of troll hunting---- me.
When I see or hear sports segments dedicated to fantasy sports I want drive a nail in my ear because it is less painful. --also me.
by bigred28655 on Jul 19, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I think if Atlanta wins the Super Bowl
That will appease them. Anything else will be a failure. As their fans are currently viewing Julio as the missing piece of the puzzle.
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
I think he doesn't have to have this stat line
as long as he makes big plays all season.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Hardy Came As The Result Of A Trade
Sorry “James”, but DE Greg Hardy did come to the Panthers as the result of a 2009 trade. The Panthers traded the #202 pick (TE Brandon Myers) in 2009 for the Raiders, for the # 216 pick (CB Captain Munnerlyn), and their 6th round pick in 2010, (#175 DE Greg Hardy).
That’s certainly a trade Panthers fans can’t complain about that trade of Marty Hurney’s!
by PanthersRoar on Jul 19, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Really interesting to see the stats on Brown.
From them I would gather his issue hasn’t been production but rather lack of playing time. Could he be another example of a player being held back by Fox?
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Jul 19, 2011 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
I believe he is
I don’t mean to constantly make Fox sould like some evil tyrant who held talented players down, but there is just too much evidence of guys sitting on the bench who should have been suiting up on Sundays, especially at the DE position.
Johnson should have started over Brayton in 2009, Brown/Hardy should have started over Brayton in 2010… the list goes on.
Fox really wanted guys who could seal the edge in the running game, but to do this he often cannibalized the pass rush ability of the team.
by James Dator on Jul 19, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I believe a lot of people want to make Fox appear to not like rookies,
when in reality he would go for the player that he thought gives him the best chance to win. And how does a coach make that decision? I would say it is based on what they do in practice. I read an article at nfl’s site recently about how Tebow will most likely be the starter for the Broncos, based on Fox choosing the player with the most upside, and not going with the vet over a rookie. Remember, hindsight is 20/20. When youi are the 1 making the call, how would you base your decision on which player you want to start?
Some guys are gamers.
But you wouldn’t know it if you only get a chance to evaluate them in practice. My philosophy would be…if you have a jersey, you’ll get a chance. No, not everyone can start, but after 14 games of ineffectiveness with Brayton, don’t you think it would be time to give Hardy or Brown a start?
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
No, not everyone can start
No, I said they would get a chance to play. (See Edwards, Armanti.) Not necessarily start. Even if its just a series or so.
And, they are only bench-warmers because I’ve made them so. But there always limits to any coaching philosophy. For example…I’m not going to pull Peyton Manning and play Jim Sorgi.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
All i am saying is
If a player wants to play, he better show it in practices. I would never play a player that didn’t show his skills in practice when another player works his butt off in practice and shows he is commited.
You don't know what happened in practice, I don't know what happened in practice
The bottom line is that good players were sitting behind unproductive starters. Regardless of effort in practice, that is a coaching failure. Failure to spot talent, failure to motivate, or failure in your decision system, failure to practice hard, it doesn’t matter. The world isn’t fair and as a result, effort in practice doesn’t translate symmetrically to production in games. To make your decisions solely on who practices hardest is a failure to acknowledge the differences, and is a failure as a leader.
Some guys are gamers.
This has nothing to do with working hard in practice.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
But, we're talking about PRACTICE
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
And this guy...
I don’t care how good he can make 21-foot 2-point shots 38% of the time. This clown is the 12th man if he has to be on my squad.
But he made his own bed. And last I checked his bed was in Turkey.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
When i said working hard,
I meant working hard, and doing things better than the rest. If i am a coach, i pick the guy doing stuff right in practice, over the ones doing stuff wrong. Also, of all these players people say are so much better than the ones that started, Does anyone know if they had a chance to play and did nothing in a real game in their first chances? Like with Brayton, he had like 4 sacks in preseason, in real games. How many did the others have? I cant tell you if any of them had a chance early in a real game and blew it or not cause i cant see all the plays or positions, i just watch the games on my monitor, in a little 5 inch square box, but I would say some of them had a chance and did nothing to show they deserved to stay in the games. Of course i could be wrong, hell i dont know. I just think it is foolish to think any coach, not just Fox, would play some1 based on experience if the lesser experienced player is playing better.
We all think it's foolish too, that's why we bitch about it all the time.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
the only thing i have left to say about it is
I give the coach the benefit of doubt. I think they all play who they think is best. They only have so much to base that opinion on, and we fans dont have anything other than the games and by then that decision has already been made.
Armanti led the team in receptions for the pre-season
That didn’t get him any additional snaps in the regular season, even once the season was lost.
To me, it is either a coaching failure or straight up apathy NOT to play a young guy with promise when a season is already lost. I don’t care if your bed IS made and you are leaving town, you still have a duty to the team currently paying you millions to coach.
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
I never liked the Armanti pick.
He was not in any shape to be a receiver. There were receivers available at that pick, why not go for 1 of them if you want a receiver? In my opinion, he was a bust.
Way too early to be calling him a bust.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I really believe that you will be proven wrong.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
They didn't just want a receiver.
They had just taken LaFell and later on they took Gettis. They clearly wanted the athletic potential of a hybrid who could add wrinkles to the offense. They wanted a Cribbs-type player.
Was he in WR shape immediately? No. That is why he is considered a project. There are not many QBs (if any) that could transition to WR in the NFL and be perfectly in shape for it. It is just so much more running than they are used to, even for a scrambler like Armanti. Gotta thing… QBs spend time in practice with coaches reviewing plays, or simply just throwing to give the WRs some practice running routes. Either way… the QBs are fairly stationary while the WRs do nothing but run run run.
As soon as this lockout is over, hopefully in time to have a decently long camp, I expect Chudz will take Armanti under his wing and mold him into that multi-threat that will keep the opposition guessing. Rivera has already expressed his desire to use him in a variety of ways, and Chud has the credentials with guys like Cribbs and Sproles to make it happen.
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
I hope you all are right.
I just don’t see it happening. I believe Gettis & Lafell are so much farther along than Armanti that he will never catch up.
He doesn't have to
As long as he’s capable of filling the 3rd or 4th WR spot, he will bring value to our team. You usually don’t get much out of those players, but the option reverse to AE passing TD adds a huge dynamic to the offense, forcing teams to respect the deep threat WR with a safety over the top on every play that AE is on the field. That opens a LOT in positions you’d commonly use 3-and-4 WR sets under the middle: 3rd and 8, for example.
The last place Chudzinski coached (SD)
7 WRs had 13 or more receptions. Granted, Vincent Jackson was one of them, and he held out the first 10 games.
But this tells me that he was inundated in an offense that needed multiple WRs at each receiver position.
I bet you if Chud has any say we will keep 6 WRs on the roster. I know, I know, quite the sea-change from ole Foxy, huh?
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
I think we'll keep 7 WR's
Smitty, Gettis, LaFell, Edwards, Pilares, Clowney, and Wallace Wright (for special teams use primarily).
I think we’ll only carry 2 kickers to give the extra spot to Wright.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Yeah, that would be ideal.
Baker should be able to kick it to the goal-line since he’s 5 yards closer.
As for the WRs…if we are lining up in the shotgun with multiple WRs—to give Cam some plays he feels comfortable with—then I think you have to have at least 6. I think we would keep Wright before Clowney, due to the ST ability. Although, Clowney is said to have great speed.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
I'd have a hard time calling Brayton and Diggs proven players.
At least not enough of ones to garner starting over the likes of Anderson, CJ, and Hardy, and maybe Brown.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't doubt Fox went with who he thought looked better
But, when the proof is in the pudding on Sundays and Tyler Brayton is entering his 10th straight start without a sack then how can you justify not making a change, any change to throw something against the wall and see if it sticks?
Hindsight is indeed 20/20, but Fox proved that the vast majority of the time he would elect to stay the course rather than rock the boat, the problem is the boat needs to be rocked sometimes and that’s why he’s not in Charlotte anymore.
by James Dator on Jul 19, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
criolle
The Panthers were moving Brayton inside on passing downs to take advantage of his height. Not a lot of sacks are made from the DT position. Tackles usually keep the QB from stepping up in the pocket.
Statistics suffer for a DE who moves to DT on passing downs. This is called “being a team player”. It’s a unique concept for showboating players today.
Yes, he did move inside quite a bit.
But he had plenty of snaps at DE when the opponent passed, and produced very little in the way of pressures and sacks.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
Not to mention a glaring lack of tackles in the run game
from a guy who was supposed to be good against the run.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I was never a fan of this hit either
by Lesbian Montgomery on Jul 19, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that hit gets a bad rap.
Brayton was sitting on the bench where he couldnt even see the play. Suppose thats you, you run up to the sideline thats 10 feet nearly out of bounds and you see a guy running right at you. Your instincts could easily throw an arm up to avoid being hit. I am not saying that is the case, just a reason for it that is very possible.
Throwing a forearm shiver and laying your shoulder into someone
are two very different things to me. One is an incredibly aggressive move, the other is more defensive. It’s still not as bad as tripping a guy, though.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
That and it's kinda fishy when you hustle up to the side of the field
just in time to hit a guy.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
That whole play was only like 5 seconds.
How could he have planned it not even being able to see the field from his position?
You're assuming he couldn't see it happening from his position
I have a hard time believing he couldn’t.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Like i said, the entire play was like 5 seconds.
For it to be planned he would have had to know not only that they were running to that side, but know they would be 10 feet out of bounds, while making his way to the line. I could see the planned thinking if he were already on the sideline but they said he was at the bench area, & there were a line of players between him & the line when he went up to the line.
I'm not saying he planned it
I’m saying it’s perfectly plausible for him to rush over to the sideline as he saw the play coming that way, further out onto the field than anyone else, and knock a dude on his ass.
But whatever, this argument is purely a guessing game anyway.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jul 19, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep im not saying he didnt do it intentionally,
I’m just saying i give him the benefit of doubt cause i know reflexes will do what they want , & because it all happened so fast.
The only thing I don't like about these stats are the missing snap count totals
I remember reading (not sure where) that Brown was in the bottom 15 of the league in percentage of plays to actually cause pressure. While his chance of success is high when he does get pressure, its primarily because he’s only been able to beat guys with a speed rush/spin move, and if it fails, he gets tied up and gets little done. On that aspect, it is misleading.
Honestly, I think PFF's numbers are wrong
Perhaps ERL can illuminate this for us because he said he rewatched all of 2010 and looked at Everette Brown, but Pro Football Focus say that Brown had 291 pass rush snaps in 2010 alone, this equates to 22.3 pass rushes a game… this simply can’t be right. Brown wasn’t on the field that much.
Opponents tried to pass 526 times against Carolina in 2010, and the team had 31 sacks… this means that there were 34.8 pass attempts a game on average and Brown was supposedly on field for 22.3 of those? That doesn’t smell right
by James Dator on Jul 19, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
22 sounds about right.
The average number of offensive snaps per team, per game, is between 60 and 70. Brown saw the field on more than just third down. On rotational play in 2008 and 2009, CJ was given some 500 snaps and over 900 snaps in 2010. I don’t have the numbers PFF’s premium numbers but those were available in one of his articles.
It may be right.
But I bet he amassed more than 1/3 of those snaps in the final 4 games of the season.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
You're right, he did amass over a third, but he also only played in 13 games
In those final 4 games teams passed 133 times (33.25 a game) which was actually lower than the season in game average.
I don’t know.. granted, all I have to go on is the eye test but if I had to guess what I saw as the % breakdown of pass rush DE snaps it would have been:
- Johnson: 85%
- Brown: 7%
- Hardy: 4%
- Brayton: 3%
- Other: 1%
That’s just my eye test, but I can’t see how Brown could have been on the field for that many snaps when Hardy got his time out there too
He wasn't.
The probably gave Brown some of Norwood’s snaps, or just miscalculated somewhere.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
Early on in the season he was very spotty.
Maybe half of that 22 snap average for the first 4 weeks.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
My figures were stupid too... it should add up to 200% because there are two DEs
So, I would estimate it thusly:
Johnson: 85%
Brown: 40%
Hardy: 33%
Brayton: 27%
Other: 15%
That's probably close.
I would lower Johnson’s number a little b/c he rushed from a DT spot maybe 6 times a game (those 6 snaps would probably go to Hardy or “other.”) But other than that these look very reasonable.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
So 112% Of The Panthers Pass Rush Snaps Leaves With Johnson & Brayton
So by your estimate 112% (out of 200%, or 56%) of the DE pass rush snaps will leave with Johnson and Brayton.
Then the only DE backups are undersized Eric Norwood, and Hilee Taylor will have to step up? LOL
You can’t continue to strip out your starters without exhausting your quality depth.
by PanthersRoar on Jul 19, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Johnson has already left, has he?
Exactly what are you advocating here PanthersRoar? I’m not trying to be snippy. I’m legitimately interested.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
Just Questioning The Depth If CJ and Brayton Go
i was just pointing out that if Johnson and Brayto go, the the Panthers have to replace 56% of the DE pass rush snaps, and I don’t think Norwood and Hilee Taylor can handle that much increased playing time. The Panthers would also need to add a bigger DE as a backup.
by PanthersRoar on Jul 19, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they would do just that if CJ and TB are not brought back.
Who is available outside of the big name guys: Edwards, Babin, and Kiwanuka?
Would anybody (besides those three guys) be better than Hardy, Brown, Norwood and Taylor?
I’m sure we could find a bigger DE who would be an upgrade over Taylor in free agency…A guy like a Stylz White, Anthony Hargrave, or Jimmy Wilkerson, perhaps?
And, I’ve brought this up before, but I think Terrell McClain could play some LDE in our heavy package(s).
I mean, big 323lb Red Bryant played LDE in Seattle’s base 4-3 last season, and they were 2nd overall in defending the run while he was healthy. He was injured half way through the year, and they fell to worst in the league during the time he was out. (I’m not sure what my point is here, other than you can play a DT at DE on 1st down.)
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
Brayton is no loss, 2010 showed us that
As for CJ… if he does leave, what would Pep’s number have been in 2009? 90%?
Sure, you lose depth… but thats why you go through free agency and sign UDFAs. If the Panthers lose both then they’re likely to bring in a FA at the position, and they still have Brown, Hardy, Norwood and Taylor.
Couple this with some 3-4 looks and they’ll be able to piece a season together no problem until they can address it long term.
If the panthers lose CJ, we might have to draft another DE soon if our rookies don't pan out
Given the situation our team is currently in, I don’t think we should keep re-drafting the same position every year. Its the issue that has put us in our current predicament: loaded at some positions, barren at others.
Sure
But, the other side of the coin is that if you lose Charles Johnson you just gained a whole lot of money to spend on somewhere else.
You could sign a CB or DT and not need to address that position in the next draft. Seems like tit-for-tat
While it seems tit-for-tat, I think its kinda a shell game
The only teams that truly know their player’s potential and value are those that groom them. I was discussing yesterday about how its dangerous to pick up WRs from a team that has a top QB, because their system and QB vision play them open whether they have the skill to make plays on their own or not. I think that problem carries over to FA. Also, not an issue here but a must-mention, FA acquisitions are typically more expensive than locking up a player in his last year of his contract for a couple more.
There's two DEs on the field at the same time.
Frequently, they would move CJ inside or give him a break and use both Hardy and Brown on the edge. A lot of CJ’s TFLs came from strong side runs on first and second down, a big reason we forced so many third and longs last season (which we proceeded to give up).
hence Dick Marshall's "gaudy" tackling numbers
a big reason we forced so many third and longs last season (which we proceeded to give up)
This comment section has officially been Tater'd.
Frequently, sure...
I still ascertain there was no way Everette Brown was on the field for 64% of all pass attempts
I will back this up.
With more ascertation.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
I think Hardy can excel at the DE position. I mean, before his injury the guy was slated to be a 1st round pick wasn’t he? So he has the potential to become a great pass rusher, and the fact we only spent a 6th rounder on him means we are risking little with him on the field.
However, I do worry that if we lose CJ, and Hardy doesn’t quite fill the hole CJ has left behind, we might be behind the 8-ball in terms of a pass rush (unless Brown and Norwood help fill it as well). IDK, I just worry that a big chunk of our QB pressures and stops may leave along with CJ… If he leaves I hope I am wrong.
Proud Member of Cat Scratch Reader and coiner of the (minus Bowers) meme
Greg Hardy better start on Day 1.
He’s proven in his limited time that he can be a thousand times more productive than Everette Brown. We can still bring EB in during pass rush packages, but we need to have Hardy on one side and Brown on the other. The pass rush that results will be sick.
"Once again the trousers of evil are yanked down by the mocking hands of justice!"-Revshawn
Here is a question not related to this article.
With this lock out, the coaches are not working with the players, does this greatly help the coaches get on track with their game plans? They have nothing else to do except work together to get their coaching plans all in sync. I would think that has to help the team from the new coach standpoint. Am i right to think it will help or is that just wishful thinking on my part?
That's certainly an optimistic view point.
The team is very young and the coaching staff has a lot on their plate. Having said that, we have leaders on both sides of the ball and lots of players eager for playing time. I think we’ll see some growing pains but “in Rivera I trust”.
I officially declare this draft class: The Bojangles Collard Greens Dream Team!
How would everyone feel if...
We brought in Vernon Gholston, we could probably get him pretty cheap, and try him out in the 4-3 defense instead of a 3-4 like they had in New York. I just think he is too athletic to completely drop out of the NFL.
by Lesbian Montgomery on Jul 19, 2011 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
I agree with James.
If he wants to come in and fight for a roster spot then I’m okay with it. But he should not be brought in with any expectations.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
This piece isn't intended to say these guys could replace Johnson, I just think it's likely these guys could replace Johnson
:S
I don’t have a problem with one of these guys stepping into a starting role. I have a problem with both stepping into a starting role. And especially with 2 rookie DTs. We have to get some vets in the line, or else were going to be horrible in defense.
STEVE SMITH!
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2011 2:33 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The way I look at it a loss of CJ means an extra $8-$10 million to be spent elsewhere. For that money you could likely grab Brandon Mebane AND Ray Edwards for a couple of million more.
If we can get penetration at DT with regularity I think it will be remarkable how much that opens up the pass rush for the DEs, even if it’s Brown and Hardy
Ray E
will probably demand more than CJ, so I doubt an extra $8-10 will land a stud DT and DEnd. But only time will tell.
YUP!
+1
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Brown's deficiencies are evident by the excuses you guys are making
You’re trying to say he can be as good as Johnson, but you have to use obscure stats to do it… Because his actual production suggests he’s having a very hard time as a pro.
Here’s the real numbers from their sophomore seasons:
Johnson: 20 tackles, 6 sacks, 7 pass deflected
Brown: 20 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 pass deflected
Hardy (rookie): 24 Tackles, 3 sacks, 1 pass deflected
Johnson has always been a much better pass rusher than Brown from the very start. And Hardy was better as a rookie than Brown with a year under his belt. Let’s face it… Brown has struggled.
STEVE SMITH!
by southtunnel on Jul 19, 2011 2:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Okay, but Johnson was playing opposite Peppers during his sophomore season.
And you can’t fault Brown and Hardy for not getting more than 3 sacks a piece last season when teams simply didn’t have to throw against us. Yes, CJ did well to get 11.5 or whatever, but he did that as a full-time player. And up until week 10, CJ only had 3.5 sacks. Then he went on a colossal run over the last 7 weeks, collecting at least one sack a week, and setting a franchise record for most consecutive games with a sack.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
...posted too early...
But many of the 8 sacks he had in the last seven weeks were gimmes. Two of them were credited to him after QBs scrambled out of bound for a few negative yards, and he happened to be the closest defender. Another one was actually Derek Landri’s sack, which was incorrectly credited to Johnson after he fell on the QB that Landri had by the waist.
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
I think what ERL is trying to say is
CJ just might not quite as good as we’re making him out to be. Granted 11.5 sacks is great, but like ERL said, he only had 3.5 sacks by week 10. The other 8 came in the last 6 games. I’m not taking anything away from him, but to say he was SO much better than Brown and Hardy is debatable.
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
The sacks weren't his defining number
He got the sacks while also putting up top TFLs and the highest negative yardage tackle totals in the league.
I wonder if those stats came during the same span.
Hmm, it is something worth contemplating, but not really worth researching. I’m too lazy, LOL!
In situations like this when things are bad, the easy thing to do is fold up the tent, just pack it up and accept it. But winners and people who are successful realize that when things get tough, it’s an opportunity to define yourself. They realize that in this moment, you can do something great. - Jon Beason
by Tarheel Soldier on Jul 19, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah well Brown didn't have any sacks going into week 10
He accumulated his measly 3 in the same period Johnson got his 8. I mean if we’re going to use goofy logic, then let’s apply it to everyone.
STEVE SMITH!
If you want the truth (according to me)
I think Norwood will ultimately be the starter at RDE opposite Hardy (if CJ goes elsewhere).
"I don't know whatchu came to do...but I...I...I...I came to praise his name, yeyuss!!
~Reverend Brown
One has to put the numbers in context to fairly evaluate the situations
When CJ was in his second year the depth chart consisted of Peppers/Brayton/Johnson and then…… Hillee Taylor only saw snaps in 10 games, and recorded 4 tackles, he barely played so Johnson saw a ludicrous amount of time at DE out of necessity.
Whereas Brown played in 13 games (to Johnson’s 16) and the depth chart was much muddier with Greg Hardy and Eric Norwood getting snaps at the position too.
Let’s not compare apples to oranges too much here, because Trgo was still here in 2008 also, and he was far more aggressive with his DEs than Meeks was also
Yeah, except Johnson played under Meeks and without Peppers last year as well
If his production was due to the factors you mention, then he would have struggled last year. You want to evaluate the situation to make an excuse for Brown??? Well how about Johnson excelled despite the changing situation… Got an obscure stat for that?
STEVE SMITH!
Aren't we huffy today?
All I did was point out that according to Football Outsiders Brown from 2010 trends very closely to Johnson in 2009, in both cases this was the season before they were asked to shoulder the burden as a starter.
I'll get to the point here instead of being vague.
I’m curious why you’re so vehement that Brown can’t hold a candle to Johnson when this time last year you were so vehement that Johnson couldn’t hold a candle to Peppers.
Like I said in the first line of this article… history repeating
Because he can’t help but be negative. It’s in his blood piss and vinegar.
(just kidding ST)
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
I'm not just being negative... I think Hardy (por ejemplo) will be a quality starter
I just see Brown as one of those guys that CSR homers constantly make excuses for, until he’s eventually cut one day.
STEVE SMITH!
If I was "vehement" that Johnson couldn’t hold a candle to Peppers
Then I was wrong. But this is different. I thought Johnson would struggle without help. I think Brown will just struggle period.
STEVE SMITH!
Fair enough
I know you’ve been down on Everette Brown for a while, in contrast I believe in him. I watched him in New York Jets preseason game dominate their 1st team OL, and I see that kind of potential there
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6782227/free-agents-meet-hell
With a name like Lesbian I have to be awesome!
by Lesbian Montgomery on Jul 19, 2011 4:15 PM EDT reply actions
Hotty Toddy
I’m a big Greg Hardy fan dating back to his days at Ole Miss. I was fortunate enough to watch him play both football AND basketball. The man is a freak. If Charles Johnson is gonna walk for the big payday, so be it. I’m still personally offended by his two-handed driving tweet anyway.
Not afraid. - Deuteronomy 31:6
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