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Are the 2011 Panthers better than the 2008 Division winners?


I have stated on several posts that my biggest reason for believing in this team is that we have more overall talent than the 2008 Panthers.  The 2008 Panthers went 12-4 and won the division.  What I'm gonna do is compare the 2011 projected roster (based on keeping all important FAs) to the 2008 team.

Star-divide

QB - Newton vs. Delhomme

 

The most important position on the field is the QB position.  In 2008, we had Jake Delhomme.  He had a QB rating of 84.7, and threw for 15 TDs and 12 INTs, and also ran for 2 TDs.  That was Jake's year after his Tommy John surgery.  Remember that he completely stunk it up against the Raiders and Lions, but we won due to the other guys.  Those two games were the two following the bye week.  For the rest of the season, he played pretty well.  He provided the leadership and work ethic, and confidence, for our offense.  I think Cam will be much better than that, as a rookie.  Cam has already won over many players.  I think it's not to improbable for him  to throw for 15 TDs.  I definitely expect more than 2 rushings TDs.  I think he'll be more accurate than Jake, has a stronger arm and quicker release.  He's gonna make some rookie mistakes, but in the end, his talent and work ethic will overcome that.

Advantage: 2011 QBs

 

RB- Williams/Stewart/Goodson/Fiametta vs. Williams/Stewart/Hoover.

The 2008 team saw Williams run for 1500 yards, and score 20 total TDs.  The rookie Stewart ran for 800 yards and 10 TDs.  They became the first RB duo ever with both guys getting 800 yds and 10 TDs.  The following year, they were the first to get 1100 yards a piece.  In 2011, the running game will be better because Fiametta should be a better blocker than he was last year, and Goodson is also very talented.  What we really need to keep an eye on is play calling and if Fiametta really is better at picking up the blitz.  He's still no Hoov, though.

Advantage: 2011 RBs

 

WR/TE - Smitty, Gettis, LaFell, Edwards, Shockey vs. Smitty, Muhammed, Jarrett, Rosario

In 2008, Smitty averaged over 100 yards a game.  Moose finished with over 900 yards as well.  This happened with Jake throwing.  I think we'll be better this year because we'll have three solid receivers instead of two.  The real difference in the receiving corps is going to be how these young guys block downfield, and on certain outside running plays.  Moose was a really good blocker.  I think Cam's ability to run and the other weapons on offense open the door for Smitty to have another dominant season.  King and Rosario combined for 39 catches in 2008.  I think Shockey and Rosario will be closer to 70.

Advantage: 2011 WRs/TEs

OL - Gross, Wharton, Kalil, IDK, Otah vs. Gross, Wharton, Kalil, Bridges, Otah

I call this one  draw.  I don't know who's going to start at RG.  Otah was a rookie in 2008, and should be better as a veteran, but we haven't seen him play in over a year.  The OL in 2008 was pretty good.  Jake was only sacked 20 times.  Part of that was our dominance runnign the ball, and also Jake's decision making.  It will be hard to match the quality of the 2008 OL, but since 4 of those guys are still here, it's doable.

Advantage: Draw

 

DL:  CJ, McLain, Fua, Brown vs. Peppers, Kemoeatu, Lewis, Brayton

I think it's going to be difficult to match the Panthers DL from 2008.  Peppers had 14.5 sacks that year.  CJ could equal that number.  I think Brown will win the other starting job, but it could be Brayton, Hardy, or someone else.  Lewis and Kemo played good football that year, too, except when Derrick Ward ran for 200 yards against us.  So my 2011 DL roster includes three guys who have never been starters.  Think about that for a minute.

Advantage: 2008 DL

 

LBs - Davis, Anderson, Beason, Connor vs. Davis, Beason, Diggs

Diggs was a solid tackler, but a guy many people considered a solid back-up player who shouldn't start.  Adding some 3-4 schemes, Anderson and Connor to the mix makes the 2011 LB squad a real strength.  All four guys have the talent and skill to be Pro Bowlers.  I expect big things from this squad.  The key is going to be how close they have to play to the line to make up for lack of experience on the DL.  If we get good leads, though, then our defense should spend less time on the field overall.

Advantage: 2011 LBs

 

DBs - Gamble, Godfrey, Martin, Munnerlyn vs. Harris, Gamble, Lucas, Godfrey

The 2008 team struggled down the stretch.  Martin and Godfrey showed last year that they are a solid pair of starting safeties.  Harris was good at making big plays, creating turnovers, and run support.  The key is going to be Munnerlyn.  Munnerlyn will be lined up on #2 receivers like Julio Jones.  I'm hoping we bring in a vet FA and Munnerlyn can be the nickel.  I think our 2011 secondary is going to be better, though, because of better play from Martin and Godfrey.  We have moved on from bend but don't break.  We will be attacking more, and reacting less. 

Advantage: 2011 DBs

 

There you have it.  I've decided not to get into special teams and coaching.  We still have Baker and Kasay.  Ryne Robinson was returning kicks in 2008.  I think there is a consensus about the coaching staff in Carolina as well.  If you look at our 2008 team compared to 2011, though, you see so many familiar faces, and the talent is in place.  We were never in a rebuilding stage, and I think we all better get used to winning every year, not every other year. 

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Are the 2011 Panthers better than the 2008 Division winners?

Not answerable until the 2011 season actually happens, but I’d say not a chance in hell.

by SlayerGhaleon on Jul 17, 2011 9:35 AM EDT reply actions  

good call

I look at the talent levels, and I think so. But we have a lot of young guys, and no contact with coaches so far. it won’t be easy.

by usana_gaines on Jul 17, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

not a chance in hell

"My everything, or nothing. My everything, or nothing. WE gonna fight, til we can't fight no more. We gonna lie down, and bleed a while. Gonna get up, and fight again." -Tashard Choice

by SouthernPanther on Jul 17, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

They definitely have a chance in hell

If the D gets up to speed quickly, then we have a good chance. If Cam can excecute the gameplan, we have a damn good chance. That’s really the biggest thing though. If Cam can run the offense effectively, our offense will be too much to handle.

They have a great shot at being amazing. And on paper, they are definitely better than the ’08 squad. Will they be 12-4 or better in ’11? Hell no!

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by Thee Steve Johnson on Jul 17, 2011 1:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

It's certainly debatable on paper.

However, we have an entirely new coaching staff, a new quarterback (presuming that Newton will eventually start more games than Clausen), a big fat question mark about who our #1 receiver will be (please STAY, Smitty!), a handful of unsigned players (i.e. Williams, Johnson, Davis) who may leave for “greener” pastures, and a bit of uncertainty as to who we will go after in the lightning round known as the 2011 Free Agency period. This year’s team could have a completely different look in a few weeks. Time will tell.

Newton for '11 ROY!
Walker for '11 ROY!
Biyombo for '11 DPOY!

by Newsinz on Jul 17, 2011 9:59 AM EDT reply actions  

That 2008 team stayed remarkably healthy through the season

Always a factor…but I like the analysis. On paper we could be as good, except at the QB position. It’s hard to say what Cam is going to do but to make Jake’s decision-making will be a tall order.

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by Jaxon on Jul 17, 2011 10:05 AM EDT reply actions  

jake's season

He had a rating of 38 against the Bucs, and 12 against Oakland. He also had four games with a QB rating over 122. It’s easy to forget how well he played throughout the season because of the playoff game. The stats don’t even present his leadership. It’s easy, IMO, for Cam to outperform last year’s QBs, but comparing him to Jake at his best is a hell of a challenge.

by usana_gaines on Jul 17, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

so many come from behind victories that year

the chargers game was amazing, the packers game, the saints game

so many last-drive touchdown wins and field goal wins

i thought that team was better than the 2005 team. no team will ever replace the 2003 cardiac cats though

"My everything, or nothing. My everything, or nothing. WE gonna fight, til we can't fight no more. We gonna lie down, and bleed a while. Gonna get up, and fight again." -Tashard Choice

by SouthernPanther on Jul 17, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of things fell into place for the '08 team. Most importantly, they weren't decimated

by injuries. But you also had “The Catch” against San Diego, and another by Smitty against the Saints. Wasn’t that also the year Smitty made the incredible “his heel never came down out of bounds” play that beat Az?
I do think this team is potentially better, but I don’t know if the potential will be reached this year. BTW, I expect our DL to be more like: CJ, Neblett, Mebane or Coefield, Hardy.

So much to be done, and so few people willing to do it for me.

by Rick Bates on Jul 17, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Interesting post!

This first part is just addressing a point that Jaxon and Rick raised above…

Using injury as an excuse bugs me – it’s like pulling the “fill-in-the-blank-with whatever you wish” card. In sports, it’s always “next man up,” and it’s up to smart drafting/trading/signing by the GM and good coaching by the coaching staff to make sure that the next man up doesn’t lose a beat. Look at Green Bay. They finished the year with the longest IR list in the league, and managed to win the Super Bowl – smart management, smart drafting, smart signings, and great coaching across the board. Even having an injured franchise QB isn’t always an excuse – see the Matt Cassel-led Pats. Technically, injuries can be an explanation. But it shouldn’t have to be an excuse.

Anyway…

Looking solely at a roster on paper, overall, the 2011 team may have some advantages. But we still don’t know who in the heck we will lose to the FA market, who might be traded (a Smitty trade is quite likely if the Panthers feel they will be getting adequate compensation), and we don’t know who we’re going to sign (and usana, I do realize that you explicitly said that it was a projected roster based on re-signing our big FAs).

Most importantly, we just have no clue what Cam’s going to be able to do. As we saw last season, if your QB can’t do crap, no one on offense will be able to. Cam will definitely be able to do more with his legs than Jake ever did, but I don’t think a rookie Cam is going to outperform 2008 Jake through the air.

I am with you on the WR/TE situation.

RB- Williams/Stewart/Goodson/Fiametta vs. Williams/Stewart/Hoover.

We also have Sutton now. He’s had limited touches, so admittedly it’s a very small sampling to try to make a judgment on. However, I have liked what I have seen. So, I do think that we may have an advantage over 2008 in this category. But the RBs won’t be able to do crap unless we have something that kind of resembles a passing game.

For the 2011 OL, I feel pretty confident in saying that Schwartz will be our RG. He consistently improved throughout the season once he was moved inside. It’s going to come down to if Otah can stay healthy and give it his all (I personally believe it’s very unlikely that we’ll see him past the bye week), who Otah’s almost-inevitable replacement will be (and how that replacement performs), and if age will start creeping up on Gross.

I’m with Rick in that if CJ stays, our starting DEs are going to be CJ and Hardy. And I will be shocked if we do not get someone along the lines of Mebane or Coefield. DT has been a serious weakness, and it seems like the most logical place to really go after a big-time FA. If you can stuff the run upfront, and if you can pressure the QB enough upfront so that you force him into mistakes, the backfield won’t have as much pressure put on it. If we keep CJ, if Hardy progresses and gets stronger against the run, then I think that the 2011 DL might have the advantage.

We have young stud LBs now – even the backups are studs. So I agree that the 2011 LBs have the advantage.

Before deciding on CBs, I want to see if they bring in any FAs, if Rivera can get Godfrey and Gamble re-energized, and what a healthy Hogan may bring to the table. I think the guy plays with a tougher streak than pretty much any other DB on our roster (maybe even Cap’n). If Hogan keeps the mental errors to a minimum, he could turn out to be an absolute beast and give the 2011 DBs the advantage.

"One play can win a game, but one play cannot lose a game." - Coach Peterson, Boise St.

"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera

by jamiedk on Jul 17, 2011 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

i agree with many points

I agree with you on many points. It’s also very likely that Cam won’t start for a few weeks. As for the DT, notice that I penciled in 2 3rd-rd rookies. If two 3rd-round rookies are starters, then there is an obvious problem at the DT spot. If the LBs have to cheat up to make up for that, it opens us up for big plays down the middle. I’ve seen on various websites that people expect us to make a move for a FA DT. If we get an upgrade at DT and CB (Joseph), then our defense will be a top tier defense. What concerns me the most is players out of position because they don’t fully understand the defense. Training camp is going to be crucial. If we have to spend most of our camp figuring out why guys are out of shape, it could be a bad year. But if guys are in shape and can focus on learning, then I have more confidence.

I think this offense could be the best we’ve ever seen in Carolina, but weak corners and weak DTs could be what kills us.

by usana_gaines on Jul 17, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

*In my last paragraph...

I meant to write “Before deciding on DBs” instead of “CBs.”

"One play can win a game, but one play cannot lose a game." - Coach Peterson, Boise St.

"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera

by jamiedk on Jul 17, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I say no way.

That 2008 team was experienced and knew how to close games out. They may not have been on talented on paper, but when do paper projections work out anyways? They were very comparable talent-wise as well, I think their experience puts them over the top.

Yes I'm a dude.

by Flowing Willow on Jul 17, 2011 8:10 PM EDT reply actions  

As much as I'd like to share in your optimism, I don't quite agree with your whole assessment.

First, the biggest thing I see is that you’re assuming everyone comes back. Anderson, TD, CJ and D-Will are all free agents. We also have to accept that there’s probably at least a 30% chance (if not higher) that Smitty gets traded. If we lose any of those guys, it will be a serious set back for their respective units.

You also said that Cam will be a better option than Delhomme. I know people are excited about his potential, but we’re talking about a rookie who had serious questions about his mechanics and ability to pick up on the mental aspect of the game. He has only been able to talk with the coaches once so far, and may have a significantly shortened training camp. I hope that he pays off and turns out to be an excellent QB, but I refuse to accept that a rookie is a better option than a proven vet – even if that vet didn’t exactly have a career year. Heck, for all we know Cam could spend most of the year on the bench watching.

Lastly, I’m going to disagree with your O-line assessment. The fact that you have “IDK” for one of the positions should scare you enough. The 2008 line was beastly for run-blocking and they were a big reason for the emergence of double trouble. I would like to think Schwartz can fill in at RG, but its still a little early to tell. You also need to consider that it’s beginning to look like Otah might get injured while sitting on the couch eating an Oreo, so our RT spot is a question mark as well.

Overall, I think this team has a lot of young talent and potential. I could definitely see them being better than the 2008 team in a couple years. I just don’t see it happening this year.

by ppfcpp on Jul 17, 2011 9:08 PM EDT reply actions  

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