2010 Carolina Panthers Position Review: Defensive End

When he misses, he misses entirely. His percentages may be high, but the misses have contained huge chunks of ground yardage or getting blocked for 6 seconds by one guy on a pass rush. Hardy was frequently doubled when on the right side of the line, where I did not see that with EB on the left. Brown having little to no impact on third-and-long was a very large reason we got burned on those plays last season. His size limits his available techniques, and he hasn’t shown a propensity to improve on those few available techniques other than his laughable spin move.

I think he will prove to be a good lineman under McDermott’s blitz plays, but when sending 4, he is not the DE you are looking for.

Great run stop percentage stats Dator (many thanks), but the QBI stats (sacks + QB hits + QB preasures) from Pro Football Focus for Brown are the reverse of Hardy’s. They list Brown’s QBI’s as 22, a percentage (QBI’s of plays) of 7.6%, and a sack percentage of his QBI’s of 18.2%, while Hardy’s QBI’s are 25, a percentage of 11.5%, but a sack percentage of his QBI’s of 8.0%. To better judge these numbers, the average QBI percentage for DE’s was 15.9%, and the top percentage of sacks per QBI’s was 42%. The numbers for Charles Johnson were 81 QBI’s, 16.8% of plays, and 14.8% sacks of QBI’s. However, I do question their stats, because their numbers are not the same as Dator’s, they are off just a little. They list Johnson with 12 sacks (1/2 sack more), Brown with 4 sacks (1/2 sacks more), and Hardy with only 2 sacks (1 sack less).

Evan Silva predicts that it will cost the Panthers $45 million to re-sign DE Charles Johnson for 4 years. I wouldn’t be shocked if the number were to edge even higher, because he’s by far the best free agent pass rusher available,, at a very young age for a free agent, and every team wants to improve their pass rush. I expect the Falcons to make a major run at Johnson, because they see the need for a 2nd pass rusher to go with the aging John Abraham as their only weak spot left which could prevent their Super Bowl run. I think the Falcons will squeeze every penny out of their salary cap that they can to sign Johnson. Keeping Johnson will eat up a lot of the Panthers cap room, limiting them from signing more than 1 DT, 1 WR, and re-signing OLB James Anderson, maybe even 1 or 2 less.

By not drafting a DE or a DT/DE this year the Panthers may have backed themselves into a cornner, that could leave them with only 2 good options at DE (Brown and Hardy) this season, if Johnson leaves. DE Tyler Brayton is due around $3.5 million this year I believe, and Panthers were/are thinking of releasing him in a cost cutting move. Hate me if you like, and I may be wrong, but DE Eric Norwood (6-0 7/8, 241, 4.71-40) is a wasted draft pick. He’s a tweener, a smaller, slower version of Hilee Taylor (6-2, 250, 4.64-40), who only played 10 downs last season. To be effective in any way at DE, Norwood will have to set up wide enough (like the Titans) to get around the OT almost untouched, and having to be picked up by the RB when pass rushing, but this opens up a gap between the DE and DT for rushers.

How can the Panthers cope if they lose Charles Johnson?

The Panthers could have, and should have drafted a combo DT/DE this year, either Allen Bailey (6-3, 285, 4.77-40, 1.67-10) of Miami at #65 (#86 to the Chiefs), or the surprisingly falling (after a failed drug test for pot at the Combine, a late 1st or 2nd round prospect before) Christian Ballard (6-3 3/4, 283, was listed at 298, 4.70-40, 1.65-10) of Nebraska (#106 pick of the Vikings), with 1 of their 3rd round picks. That’s all water under the bridge now, leaving only a rookie free agent signing, a veteran free agent signing, or signing a veteran who gets cut, though no one knows who that might be. Johnson is the best veteran free agent by far, and you can’t judge the market until a new CBA sets the number of years required to become an unrestricted free agent.

Of the undrafted rookie free agent DE’s, though little help can be expected of them in 2011, the best 4 available are:

Pierre Allen (6-3 7/8, 273, 4.78-40) of Nebraska, he’s not a pass rusher (only 3 sacks in 2010).

Ugo Chinasa (6-4 7/8, 264, 4.65-40, 1.65-10) of Oklahoma St., his production wasn’t as good ar his numbers might make you think, and he might be a good fit as a 3-4 OLB.

Marc Schiechl ( 6-2 1/2, 251, 4.65, 1.66-10, 38 ench reps) of the Colorado School of Mines, he had 46 career college sacks, may best fit as a 3-4 OLB, and because of his small college background will take a while to develop.

Justin Rindt (6-3 1/4, 267, 4.72-40, 1.67-10) of Wisconsin.

If I’m reading your stats correctly, I think it states that Brown got pressure far less often than Hardy, but when he got pressure, he got sacks more often? I’d say that passes the eye test with flying colors.