A Shockey to the system: What a TE threat will mean under Chudzinski
by James Dator on Jun 19, 2011 3:43 PM EDT
Email
PrintWe've discussed at length what Rob Chudzinski's effect will be on the Carolina Panthers' offense, but nowhere is this more prevalent than at the TE position. If you've been following Cat Scratch Reader for some time you'll know that personally I've been calling for a greater use of TEs for some time now. The offense under John Fox seemed like an anachronism-- on the one hand there was a reliance on running the football, but on the other a complete disregard for utilizing TEs as receivers.
This was problematic for several reasons, but the most obvious is that it telegraphed the defense far too much. Out opponents knew when TEs were on the field there was a good chance we were running the football, and if we were three-wide we'd be passing. This was further exacerbated when King and Rosario were used in tandem; Jeff King would rarely be on the field in passing downs, and Rosario rarely on rushing downs. It was nice having two tight ends with different skill sets, but it made things far too obvious.
More after the jump
When rumors first surfaced that Shockey and the Panthers may have mutual interest the overwhelming sentiment from the majority on this blog was a dislike of the idea. This ranged from concerns about his maturity, worry about his injuries, to feelings that he would stunt the development of TEs currently on the roster. Ultimately, the Panthers felt that TE was the most needed overhaul to their roster and set about securing one of the few players they could prior to the lockout.
Even considering that Shockey's performance dropped off in New Orleans, and taking into account he was sharing time with Jimmy Graham he averaged 46 receptions in each of those three seasons. To compare, Jeff King and Dante Rosario combined for 47 receptions over the last three years. When you couple this with a higher YPC than King or Rosario combined and you immediately see that getting Jeremy Shockey is a major talent upgrade at the position. Finally, when we get to DVOA there's no comparison with neither King, nor Rosario rating in the top 40, while Shockey is still a top 20 TE. It's hard for me to not say he's the best TE Carolina has had since Wesley Walls, but it's true.
In 2007 TE Kellen Winslow was never better. He finished the season with 1,106 yards and 5 TD. These numbers have not been eclipsed since, nor were they topped before. This was Winslow's solo full season with Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator. Similarly, Antonio Gates in San Diego dropped off in the 2008 season, yet when Chuzinski arrived, his numbers jumped to 1,157 yards. This is too similar to Winslow's performance in Cleveland to think Chudz didn't play a role in their development.
What can we expect from here?
If we look at Winslow's 1st year improvement under Chudzinski, and then Gates' 1st year improvement under Chudzinski here's what we can adequately predict for Jeremy Shockey:
70 receptions, 750 yards, 4 TD
If this is the performance we get next season from Shockey, then we'll have a much better season than most predict.
33 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Good read
What was the #2 TE’s numbers in Chudz first year with SD and the Browns? I’m curious to see what he can do with GB.
http://twitter.com/#!/TheeSteveJohns
https://www.facebook.com/TheeSteveJohnson
by Thee Steve Johnson on Jun 19, 2011 3:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
#2 TEs were hardly used in both accounts
In 2007 Steve Heiden totaled 12 catches for 104 yards and in 2009 Brandon Manumaleuna had 5 receptions for 13 yards.
I wouldn’t think Chudzinski will use two TEs much at all. It seems based on his preference it will be Shockey or no one.
Assuming Shockey can hold up for a full season
Maybe they won’t be splitting minutes. But I feel pretty confident somebody will be taking his spot as some point in the season, due to injury. To which the question becomes, whose the likely candidate? In a more TE friendly offense, I bet Rosario could put up decent numbers.
stay thirsty my friends
Maybe Shockey is the release valve Smitty's been clamoring for
It certainly looks like LaFell and Gettis have bright futures. But there rookie seasons are far from the #2 WR upgrade Smitty’s wanted for quite some time. Well maybe Shockey at TE is just as good at accomplishing this?
stay thirsty my friends
I wouldn't be shocked to see Gettis around 800 yards
With LaFell not far behind, somehwere around 650 maybe…
Then let’s say Shockey gets 750, that’s 2,200 yards. That would be a pretty good amount of pressure taken off of Smith.
You know Smith is good for 1000 (probably way more) if he isn’t the only threat.
How much can we expect out of the rest of the offense in the receiving game? Around 500 yards yeah? So like 3700 through the air?! That would be nice. That’s a lot to expect out of a rookie, but it’s there for him if he can do it.
What do you think we could rush for? With a respectable passing attack, the box won’t have 8 defenders in it. I can’t imagine the numbers DT could put up with lanes to actually run through… so I’m thinking DT gets 2000 (I’m being conservative here). Then Goodson should be able to reach 560 (35 ypg, reasonable) and Cam should be able to get 440 (25 ypg, reasonable, and then 40 to make it even ;)… and we have the best offense ever!!! Haha Jk.
Seriously though, all these numbers are within reach. How long it will take all the pieces to fit is one thing, but achieving these numbers is a definite possibility. Not all at the same time, but possible. 3,700 through the air and 3,000 on the ground can’t happen right? 418.75 ypg, 231.25 pypg, and 187.5 rypg. Bring me back to reality ST haha
http://twitter.com/#!/TheeSteveJohns
https://www.facebook.com/TheeSteveJohnson
by Thee Steve Johnson on Jun 19, 2011 8:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was trying to figure out who DT was.
And how this person was so good that 2000 yards was being conservative. Then I figured it out, and realized that you are actually being kind of conservative. Yea, I felt dumb for a little while.
We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time. ~ Vince Lombardi
by ThePanthers! on Jun 19, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha
Sorry about that. I gues I should have spelled it out once.
http://twitter.com/#!/TheeSteveJohns
https://www.facebook.com/TheeSteveJohnson
by Thee Steve Johnson on Jun 20, 2011 12:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
Was sorta.. Meh….. But after learning more about Chuds offense and history it could be huge that we were able to sign him before the lockout.
by sgtx on Jun 19, 2011 8:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
For me it's more about the symbolism in the signing of Shockey than the signing itself.
I think he’ll be a huge upgrade, but it’s much more exciting to see there is a real commitment to the position.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jun 19, 2011 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah..Shockey is one of the bigger name FA’s we have ever signed and he is a instant improvement even at this stage of his career.
"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them." - George Bush
"I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." - Robert McCloskey
by MMA_PITBULL on Jun 20, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm excited about the tight end position for the first time in a few years.
I wasn’t crazy about the signing of Shockey much at first but I quickly came around. If he can stay on the field he is still a legitimate threat at TE and a lot better than what we’re use to. I’m also fairly encouraged by his ability to participate in that 100 mile race in Scotland-whitewater rafting, mountain climbing and such. He has to be in good health to complete such an event. His familiarity with Chud and his system is a plus as well. With Chud’s emphasis on the TE in the passing game we should see production from the TE position unlike what we’ve seen in years.
He’s been labeled as arrogant and cocky, but it seems all of his ex-teammates say just the opposite. He should be a good mentor for our other TEs on the roster. Here’s Kevin Boss on Shockey a few years ago: “I learned so much from Jeremy last year. I will miss Jeremy in New York. I couldn’t have asked for a better mentor.”
A reliable tight end that can move the chains when needed in a system that takes advantage of those match-ups will be a valuable weapon for our young quarterback’s early success.
Rules and Regulations of the Game: 89, Bottom Line
Shockey is the 2nd TE we have ever had
Sorry but it is hard to breath, swallow, and chew on but facts are facts, b.c. outside of W. Walls this franchise has gotten by with the likes of J. Wiggins, K. Mangum (great low round draft selection but had stone hands worse then Kings), D. Rosario, J. King, G. Barnidge, just to name a select few and I am not including the draft picks, washed up veterans signings etc.. b.c. their are to many to list.
Shockey is again someone that has grown up , still has some mileage left and it is a low cost, high reward situation for us b.c. we only have him on a one year deal. Shockey can stay healthy now especially since J. Graham took most of the snaps for the Saints a year ago meaning that Shockey hasn’t taken the pounding he did during the Super Bowl run year for the Saints.
Shockey is going to be a good TE for us and the best one we have had since W. Walls, I will take a Shockey on one year versus any of the TE’s we have had the past five season on our roster fully healthy.
Honestly I expect us to dump J. King and D. Rosario and find a good solid backup TE, perhaps someone that use to play with the Chargers that may get released.
Shockey is a huge improvement for this Panther offense, and having already worked with Chud at the college level is going to be huge as well.
Go Panthers ~
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Jun 19, 2011 11:35 PM EDT reply actions
All I know is that everytime the Panthers played the Saints recently...
I kept saying, “Dang that Shockey,” because it seemed like he was constantly coming up with a play just when it looked like our defense had them. And then there was the whole jealousy thing that the Saints had a coach who realized what a TE was and knew how to use the position.
So, I was really quite ecstatic when we signed Shockey. I just knew that he was going to be going to Miami…the city of Miami is different than Charlotte (although, honestly, I’m more low-key and love Charlotte), and Miami wasn’t coming off of a 2-14 season. But maybe the thought of reuniting with Chud and the idea of getting to play against the Saints twice a season was appealing. Of course, money might have played a role if the Panthers ultimately offered a better deal.
Anyway, it was one of the first signs that we were looking at a new era in Panthers operations – it was a move totally unlike any in recent years. That was exciting. The prospect of having a proven upper-level TE was exciting. And to alleviate the chances of injuries hurting the financial bottom line, they structured a very reasonable deal with Shockey with plenty of performance-based incentives.
I loved the move. And things seem even better now considering what looks like a good developing relationship with Cam.
I’m dying to see what other trades/signings we might see when FA eventually opens up.
"One play can win a game, but one play cannot lose a game." - Coach Peterson, Boise St.
"When you get into coaching, you strive to be a Super Bowl-winning head coach. That’s what my goal is, to come here and become a Super Bowl-winning head coach and to sustain an atmosphere of winning." - Ron Rivera
Shockey as an Upgrade
I understand that Shockey might be an upgrade at the TE position but not for the reasons you mentioned. You have to look at the way Shockey was used in NO vs the way the Panthers have used TEs in the past. You said the Panthers hardly used their TEs (a complete disregard for utilizing TEs as receivers) but then went on to say that Shockey had a higher YPC percentage than both of our TEs. You are comparing apples to oranges and selling us neither. NOs would throw deep to Shockey and used him in their spread offense as a weapon. If the Panthers use Shockey the same way they’ve been using TEs, his YPC percentage will drop as well. Think about putting our TEs in NOs system and what that would translate into for their pass catch numbers. Your comparison is not very compelling because you’re not comparing similar offensive systems.
That's not accurate at all
The Saints didn’t throw deep to Jeremy Shockey in any way, shape, or form.
His longest reception in the 2010 season was 31 yards, and his average game day long reception was 15.6 yards.
The Saints used Jimmy Graham as their deep threat at the TE position, not Jeremy Shockey.
by James Dator on Jun 20, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I wasn’t aware the Saints threw deep at all. Seems to me they just dump the ball off all the time.
by SlayerGhaleon on Jun 20, 2011 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
They like to use that to set up the seams.
Meachem and Henderson are killer in that regard.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Jun 20, 2011 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
a tangent to that - the result is the Panthers TEs are not accustomed to that kind of play
While they may have potential and be as good or better than Shockey, how are we supposed to know until the end of next year? We won’t. I kind of tread it like bringing in a consultant. Our TEs have had 3+ years under anemic TE play and coaching, its hard to break that mentality that’s been taught in the past. Even if one of them have a breakout year next year, it could very well be attributed to having Shockey nearby as an example and mentor, not just the scheme and coaching change. Signing Shockey was the smart decision, rather than gambling on homerism.
umm...
We have a completely new coaching staff dude your arguments invalid due to the fact our head coach and O.C. is brand new. Thus, were not gonna use our tight ends in the same way we have in the past few years. Were gonna actually take “chances” and throw to our tight ends lol Seriously though with the changes we’ll have, Rosario and King could be significantly better next year as well(due to actually being utilized) as Shockey we might be set at the TE position. Shockey is an upgrade b/c of his experience, athleticism, and his leadership as a mentor(Kevin Boss?) He will provide a good target for Cam in emergency situations due to his experience which will improve everyones confidence. No one really knows how our offense will look and how we will utilize our TE’s except for our coaching staff so therefore were gonna look like a brand new team in terms of passing. sure well have the same packages yet we will have a new personality. Same old run it down your throat yet we will actually be able to pass it to our TE’s and receivers. Don’t be so quick to jump on other peoples opinions so quick without actual facts
by rustysurfer5 on Jun 21, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone think Gates is more talented than Shockey?
I don’t. Gates has been great because of the system he’s in. Shockey can be as good or better.
Has anybody seen Otah. What, did he just fall off the planet, or become a new one?
*raises hand
Maybe in his prime Shockey might have been more talented. But it’s Gates all the way right now.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Jun 20, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm kinda
looking forward to seeing someone on offense run their mouth a little to opposing defenses. I’m not all for the TO’s and Ochocincos and what not of the league but Shockey will buck up to a D-lineman or LB.
I think on top of a little talent what’s been missing from our offense for years (minus Smitty) is a little balls.
For a couple of years now we get pushed around and nobody’s pushing back. Our offense is too meek for me. Hopefully they feed off Shockey and he improves them in that regard as well.
And Cam will undoubtedly bring some swag, too.
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
I kind of agree.
But then look at the type of offense we’ve been the past few years. We’ve been a smashmouth, run it down your throat type of team. We let our play do the talking. I don’t mind some attitude on the team, but I prefer guys who let their play do the talking. Trash talk cuts both ways, either you get in their head or they get in yours.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Jun 21, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
WTF is a tight end?
-John Fox
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
It is what it is.
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
Alternate answers...
“It’s that offensive lineman who’s not quite as fat as the other five.”
“That guy who always complains about not getting the ball. No, not Steve Smith, that other guy…the white one.”
“It’s that guy on the other team who beats the shit out of us over the middle week in and week out.”
One cries because one is sad. For example: I cry because others are stupid, and it makes me sad.
by BW Smith on Jun 21, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Ohhhhhh!!!
Thaaaaaat guy.
"Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero! "
Nice.
It’s that guy on the other team who beats the shit out of us over the middle week in and week out.
by BusyBeingAwesome on Jun 21, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
That's kind of unnerving
given how often we brag about how our linebackers are the best in the league. I can’t emphasize enough how different we’re going to look with a new coaching staff.
Yes I'm a dude.
by Flowing Willow on Jun 21, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Cat Scratch Reader
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- The Shutdown Corner Podcast: Greg Cosell on the NFC South Draft
- BREAKING: Tim Tebow did not become a great quarterback today
- Jerry Jones says Cowboys championship window is closing; Tony Romo disagrees
- Lawrence Taylor was told his Super Bowl ring was bought by Charlie Sheen
- Chad Ochocinco gets robbed, mourns loss of Starbucks gold card
